Polling day and the FUD continues.

[Suff]

FUD Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. The tool of someone who wants you to make a decisions which is bad for you but good for them....

The Telegraph has some crackers in it's live updates today...

President of the European Parliament, German Martin Schulz has already called for a new technocratic government, warned of a social crisis, and has now made clear that Greeks can no longer use the euro if they vote 'No' today:


He told German radio this morning:


"Is Greece still in the euro after this referendum? That is certainly the case, but if they say ‘no’ they will have to introduce another currency after the referendum because the euro is not available as a means of payment."


"The moment someone introduces a new currency, they exit the euro zone. Those are the elements that give me some hope that the people will not vote ‘no’ today.”

Mr Schulz is ignoring the fact that any country in the world, including Greece, can use the euro as there currency even if they're not part of the monetary union. But, the point he seems to be getting at is that the government will have to start thinking about IOUs to pay their workers and pensioners given the liquidity crunch that is being suffered by the country right now.

Well, let me see. So what you are saying, Mr Schulz, is that if you don't like the democratic result, you should just replace the government and it will all be fixed??? Very EU.

Oh and if you don't say yes and replace the government with unelected (very EU), people to runt he country, all the money you currently have will suddenly become unavailable to you and you will have nothing because you can't "use" the Euro.

"I will vote 'Yes', as I want us to stay in Europe,"

I've heard this one a lot and also in Brussels. It seems that people in the Eurozone can't differentiate between Monetary Union and Political Union. Perhaps they should all spend a few months in the UK earning £. It might give them some perspective....

Maybe there is a business opportunity in setting up a financial institution in Greece which will take Euro's and convert them into £, for, say, 5% and then allow them to withdraw whichever currency they desire for, say, 5%. Takes the fear away but is a mercilessly ruthless with other people's fear. But not half as ruthless as the EU is being today.

The Butcher has his head screwed on the right way round.

If we vote 'No' and then leave the Eurozone, at least we will have control of our own destiny again. I can't believe that some of those Greeks who have suffered just like I have are likely to be voting "Yes".

[cromwell]

President of the European Parliament, German Martin Schulz has already called for a new technocratic government.

This is the thing that really upsets me about the EU. The Greek government was democratically elected, so deal with it.

But the EU thinks it has ever right to replace a democratically elected government - essentially, to overthrow the democratic will of a nation's voters. It already has done so a few years ago, in Greece and Italy.

But instead of calling a spade a spade and saying that a democratically elected government has been overthrown in a bloodless coup, our mealy mouthed TV news refers instead to a "Technocratic" government, thus clothing a nasty reality in a nicer sounding unreality.

[Workingman]

Of course any country can trade in any tradable currency - Panama does it with the $US.

The problem for Greece is that if it wants to sell olives it gets cents per kilo, and if it wants to buy garlic it pays x€ per kilo, and tourists to Greece, a large part of its economy, feel no benefit.

Working in Drachmas the trade is still the same, but tourists benefit hugely and will flock back to Greece for cheap holidays, thus boosting employment and tax take for Greece. Greek shipping will also be cheaper for those outside Greece.

The one thing the media fails to make clear is that there is no mechanism within the EU for it to kick Greece out. It can leave the €zone, yes, but it cannot be ejected from the EU. That can only happen at the behest of the Greek people. Whatever happens in Greece the EU will have to suck it up.

[Workingman]

I have been watching and reading some of the reports from the polls, which are too close to call. However, what bugs me is the constant media claims that "Grexit" will lead to "a chaotic departure from the common European currency" no ifs or buts.

It will only be chaotic if one, or both, side(s) want it to be as they act out a own-nose-cutting-off exercise. Following such a stupid route will hurt both side. The alternative is to negotiate a staged exit to try to save at least something, for everyone, from a disaster.

I know which I would choose, but.....................

[TheOstrich]

Early indications are that the OXIs are ahead. Good.

You know what? - I think it's time we returned the Elgin Marbles to Greece. And I think we should also consider awarding them the Olympic Games in perpetuity.

[Workingman]

The position now is that the "No" vote cannot be overtaken - 62% to 38%.

Former Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has resigned having backed the "Yes" vote.

The 'experts' called in by the TV news channels cannot agree. Ask one and it's a disaster, ask another and it is time to talk, ask another and not much will change.... If a hundred were asked there would be a hundred different views.

[Suff]

The 'experts' called in by the TV news channels cannot agree. Ask one and it's a disaster, ask another and it is time to talk, ask another and not much will change.... If a hundred were asked there would be a hundred different views.

True, but I would assume that Syriza and especially Vroufakis has read this document. Which details how Greece could exit the Euro.

I note that the current bank restrictions and Bank closure could be used to enact the change. But the key is that they must do this in reaction to the ECB basically sinking them or in reaction to the EU throwing them out of the Euro.

So far Tsipras and Varoufakis have done an excellent job of showing the EU in as bad a light as possible, exploiting the differences between the EU and the IMF and, generally, creating the mayhem they were voted in to do. I suspect the main issue for Syriza has been how difficult it has been to force the EU to this stage where they are the villains throwing Greece to the wolves.

I do wonder, all over again, whether Greece actually ordered currency back in Feb. Varoufakis states that Greek Banks will open on Tuesday with no interruption. There are only two possible ways that this can happen.

1. The ECB capitulates and raises the ceiling on Greek bank debt by about €20bn.
2. Greece redenominates all Euro deposits as Drachma and re-funds the bank with newly issued Drachma notes.

My betting is not on #1.

So, it's back to guessing. The EU leaders are to meet again on Tuesday. So I get a short journey to work again Tues but loads of people being dumped off the metro at my station and loads of queues at the metro station making it difficult to get in.

So far my reading of the Greek position has been pretty close. Mainly it's been a real problem with the EU failing to listen to what Syriza was saying and expecting that Syriza would just fold to demands.... The end result was predictable.

The root cause, however, was a bit more fluffy. I've been wondering for quite a while if Syriza always expected to drive the EU to this stage but knew they could not get elected on a "leave the EU" ticket. However I also expected that once Syriza had spent the better part of 6 months trying to negotiate with the Troika and getting exactly nowhere, then they would call the referendum to repudiate the bailout. Which would then give them a mandate to exit the Euro or, at best, be thrown out of the Euro.

I note that the Bailout terms they were "bribed" to accept, at the 11th hour, by France and Germany, were worse than the terms they were voted in to dismantle.

I do not think it is any mistake by Tsipras or Varoufakis that led to that final scenario. I think it was deliberate policy.

So if we know what the goal is, then it's possible to anticipate some of the next steps....

Interesting viewing in the days to come...

[Workingman]

Another Greek trump card played?

Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis, has resigned to pave the way for a more moderate person to head any new negotiations on the debt. His belligerence and rhetoric set him, personally, against the Troika negotiators, but his support for the "No" vote made him popular with the home side.

His departure, allied with the strong rejection of austerity by the Greeks, give Tsipras and Syriza a slim chance of getting meaningful negotiations started.

There was an interesting Australian financier on the TV yesterday. His first rule was to challenge anybody who was comparing Greece to anything but Greece. Then came his ideas about dealing with the debt. Park some of it and allow the Greek economy to grow, but keep the regular payments at a level so as to be affordable - variable interest. Park all the debt, but make payments whenever the Greek economy was growing above a certain %. Greek default. His argument there was that Greece would have zero € debt and that with its economy creditors would realise that there was some scope for new loans to be paid of.

[cromwell]

There was an interesting Australian financier on the TV yesterday. His first rule was to challenge anybody who was comparing Greece to anything but Greece. Then came his ideas about dealing with the debt. Park some of it and allow the Greek economy to grow, but keep the regular payments at a level so as to be affordable - variable interest. Park all the debt, but make payments whenever the Greek economy was growing above a certain %. Greek default. His argument there was that Greece would have zero € debt and that with its economy creditors would realise that there was some scope for new loans to be paid of.

That sounds very sensible - so it probably won't happen!

The No vote gives Tsipras strong backing to negotiate a better deal but in the end it depends on the creditors. Will they grind their teeth and give Greece a better deal? Will the desire to promote the Euro ideal survive, and keep Greece in the Eurozone as the French seem to want, will the German desire to give the Greeks some shoe leather prevail? I guess we'll find out this week.

[Suff]

The departure of Varoufakis will be interpreted by the belief of the person who reads it.

Take me. Instead of reading the obvious headlines about Varoufakis (first anyway), I opened up all of the articles I could find and looked at the side comments. The trend is clear.

The EU organs are bleating the same tired tone which is diminishing in both message and intensity as every day goes by.

Surrender
Surrender
Surrender

They bleat. No negotiations can happen until the Greeks implement the entire package of reforms. No we won't talk to them until they have done what we want.

And on and on it goes. Never mind the fact that the population has overwhelmingly rejected the terms of the lenders. So the lenders continue to bleat about Greece staying in the Euro whilst making it completely impossible for them to do so. Even the most hard bitten EUphile is going to see, pretty soon, that this is nothing to do with finances and everything to do with politics. Which is, to say, the exercise of POWER. Which is what politics is all about.

Those who believe that Syriza and Greece are seeking a way to remain in the Euro and the EU will see this as a capitulation by Varoufakis.

Those who believe, as I do, that Syriza never really intended to stay in the Euro, will see the resignation as just one more move in his bold moves game theory. The EU don't even have the excuse to refuse to sit at the table with him..... Some of them, by now, will be rueing the day that they made such bold statements about the Euro being "forever" and Greece being a part of that Euro. Many of them want a way out but Greece is not going to save face for them.

They are now faced with the two worst possible scenarios.

Capitulate totally and keep Greece in the Euro and forgive enough debt for them to grow and reconstitute.

Stand fast, destroy the Greek financial institutions and economy and summarily eject them from the Euro....

When the dust settles and everyone is able to analyse what went on in the cold light of day, they may rue the day they underestimated both Varoufakis and Tsipras. One who was willing and able to use the financial situation against his "enemies" and another who was willing to use the increased suffering of the Greeks as a weapon against the lenders.

I note that statements such as "Adults in the room" have vanished entirely from the vocabulary. More and More I see silent EU organs sitting there watching the great white sharks circling....

Greeks have already lost access to their credit cards abroad. Are already stranded and having to be rescued by the embassies. Banks are closed, money withdrawal is minimal, the economy is at a standstill. Yes it could get worse, but they are already where Iceland was when they defaulted.

Now the ball is in the court of the lenders. Find a way out of this or face the consequences. They are fairly and squarely in the dock. They have, literally, tried both political, financial and media terrorism on the Greeks. Let's note what Terrorism is.

The most common form of Terrorism is defined as

Terrorism is commonly defined as violent acts (or the threat of violent acts) intended to create fear (terror), perpetrated for an economic,[1] religious, political, or ideological goal, and which deliberately target or disregard the safety of non-combatants (e.g., neutral military personnel or civilians).

But, in fact, when stripped down to the basics, Terrorism is the use of fear (or Terror), to force a group, people or population into doing something they do not want to do.

I'm going to keep on reading. I see Daniel Hannan has just tweeted.

Why is Greece the EU's problem? Because, instead of allowing Greece to default in 2010, Brussels made it prop up the banks and the euro.

Not quite Daniel, not quite....