What would you want?

[Suff]

Cameron to do in the face of EU intransigence over taking illegal immigrants?

Option 1, tell them to go stuff it and if they don't like it they can go whistle for the next block of cash. Also if they don't negotiate he'll campaign for an exit from the EU.

Option 2, capitulate. Tell them he's sorry for being a bad boy and take 300k of illegal immigrants....

Now think carefully. In Option1, come 2017, Cameron might have a platform to "sell" the goods of the EU.

For me, after consideration, I want him to capitulate and do as he's told. Take the 300k illegal immigrants this year, the 400k next year and the 500k in 2017.

Then we can have a vote on the EU....

[Aggers]

I don't quite follow you, Suff.

[TheOstrich]

I think what Suff is saying is that we have two choices over the current influx of immigrants to Europe. We are not obliged to take any*, but the EU are putting us under increasing pressure to do so, saying you can whistle for your re-negotiations if you don't help Germany / Italy / Austria / Hungary etc etc out in this current crisis.

* neither is the Republic of Ireland, but they have said that they will voluntarily take 600, I believe.

If we continue to refuse to take a share of immigrants from Europe, the EU will effectively refuse to listen to us over our re-negotiations. That means that Cameron will have to recommend we leave the EU in a referendum, because he has got nothing to put on the table in front of us. The likelihood - but it is not a certainty - is that we would therefore vote to leave. If we decide to stay in,Cameron will finish up with egg on his face, (and I suspect we will continue be treated as pariahs by the EU anyway).

Suff is being a devil's advocate and arguing that we should go the other route, agree to a share of the EU migrant quota, and let thousands (in fact, something like a million) immigrants in over the next three years. That will satisfy Prodi, Junker, Merkel and the EU, but it will severely p*ss off the British public, who despite the politicians and media blandishments, do not, I think, have any taste for mass migration. The likeliest scenario would be that despite the EU granting us the concessions and reforms we want, the British public would almost certainly vote to leave the EU, and with knobs on.

My personal view is that's Suff's option 2 is a very risky strategy. Even if we take loads of immigrants, there is no guarantee that the EU would ever allow any meaningful reforms. Neither is there any actual guarantee that the public would vote to leave (personally, I do not trust the British public to vote out - we're oh so fickle). And we'd have an extra 1.2m Islamists resident in this country, mosques 'n all. I think that's akin to a death wish.

No, I think Cameron has so far played a very shrewd set of cards. You see, I don't think that the EU are serious about giving us any re-negotiation carrots whether we take immigrants or not. So Cameron is dead right not to fall for any "jam tomorrow" promises in that respect from the EU.

Cameron has refused to take EU immigrants, but looks good by taking 4,000 a year for 5 years direct from the Lebanon refugee camps. Using the International Aid budget to do this is quite a masterstroke from Osborne. In the meanwhile, sit back and watch the EU implode as Merkel and Hollande take on Orban and the Eastern European countries, while trying to cope with increasing public unrest in Germany and France. Open borders with the EU will soon be a casualty of all this, and not just the Schengen agreement, I think there will soon be a return of full passport controls and possibly visas. Another casualty will be Merkel .....

A second although unrelated blinder Cameron has played this week is the killing of the British ISIS terrorists by drone. He will have the support of the vast majority of the country, and totally wrong-footed the Corbynistas in the process.

I hate Cameron with a passion, but cannot deny that he is a very competent political operator.

[medsec222]

I think Harriet Harman recognised Cameron's master stroke Ossie - she looked like she was chewing on a lemon when she sat down after his announcement.

[Suff]

Very masterly summary Ossie. That is exactly what I was talking about.

However I differ in two ways.

I believe that the UK needs a MUCH stronger reason to leave the EU than "don't like". I believe that uncontrolled illegal immigration, sanctioned and, very much, driven by, the EU organs, will be that reason. Yes it's a risk but staying in an EU this out of control is a bigger risk.

I have no faith the EU will implode. There is simply too much momentum to make that implosion happen fast enough to benefit the UK.

The second way I differ is I have never hated Cameron. Clegg, with a passion, but not Cameron. I believe that one term in coalition and a second term on his own to sink or swim without the lead weight of the Lib Dems has toughened Cameron significantly. I believe that Cameron's rash statement that he would stand down is not going to help the country. Another term of Cameron (a Tory with a conscience), toughened and hardened to reality, is exactly what the UK needs and, now, is unlikely to get.

Ah well. Politics. It's all a dogs breakfast in the end....

[Workingman]

I have been following the migrant/asylum seeker/refugees/illegal immigrant stories in the British media for some time. The range of media goes from the Guardian. Telegraph, Mail, BBC, Sky , Mirror and so on. I have read thousands of comments from many different people. I admit that some of them will be using different userrnames in different outlets, but still there are thousands of individuals with their individual comments out there. These people are not responding to closed questions, as in polls, they are freely giving their thoughts and opinions on subjects.

What is interesting from all of these is the number of them implacably opposed to any more immigration of just about any sort. They are as angry with Cameron for not getting on top of immigration, including that from the EU, and want out if he does not stop or reduce it. They are angry with the EU and 'refugees' and Merkel and want out if it is not stopped. Immigration. of all types, is their major concern and they want the vast majority of it stopped.

I get the feeling that there is a groundswell beginning and that if Cameron can do nothing to negotiate immigration away from within the EU and if the EU continues down the current path they will vote out anyway. They are not the least bit bothered about the politics and problems of doing "this" or not doing "that" or of any benefits or demerits.... As someone who has always been for staying in the EU that bothers me.