Is Russia winning in Syria?

[TheOstrich]

on the other they have NEVER hit the wrong target -have they?

Precisely, and let's not forget the 290 passengers and crew killed on the Iranian Airbus shot down by USS Vincennes in 1988 .....

[Workingman]

The US is now saying that it will stop training rebels and limit its assistance to providing weapons and equipment.

I imagine that it will not be long before that stance is also amended and eventually stopped.

[Suff]

One of the IS pictures I saw had a person in a trench with a M60 machine gun.

Well that worked out well then didn't it????

[KateLMead]

I would be interested in your views as to what will be the outcome of this Syrian debacle, and Russia's intentions, noting Putins planes have flown in Turkeys air space.

[victor]

well as i far as i can see

Putin intentions are that he will crush any rebels opposing Assad-then start on I.S.

anything that keeps Assad in power

[Suff]

Let's see. Understanding the politics in the region helps a lot....

The US deposed the Iraqi president and had the new president fired the Shia PM and replaced him with a more "moderate" one who would toe the party line.

This was the price of US air strikes. They were not going to do anything whilst a US hostile Shia PM was in power in Iraq. I have noted that the vast majority of US air strikes have been in Kurdish space. It is Iran and the Shia Militia who are trying to win Iraq back from IS in the Sunni heartlands like Tikrit. The Iraqi forces are no better against IS than they were against NATO, very good as swaggering bullies of unarmed civilians, total cowards in a real war.

Then there is Syria. Once Putin puts Assad back in control of his country, then they will require that Assad helps them and supports them in removing the rest of IS in Iraq. At the same time Russia will work with the Shia in Iraq to gain a power base from the office of the PM to give them influence in the region.

Why overfly Turkish air space? Why go through Belgium to circumvent the Maginot line?

Why do IS feel safe from Turkey? IS are neither Assad nor Kurdish. Which is a double + for The Turks. As far as Turkey is concerned, if Assad falls and IS gains total control over the Kurdish areas of Iraq and Syria, then Turkey can get on with decimating any Kurdish resistance in Turkey. Turkey lives in fear that Syrian and Iraqi Kurds will unite and then force Turkey to release the Kurdish area of Turkey and the 1/3 of Kurds who live in it. Leaving a potential hostile UK/Ireland situation in their wake. IS, to Turkey is a small price to pay and controllable. The US resolution of Iraq was a nightmare for Turkey. The Loss of Assad without rapid replacement by a hard line Islamic group that did not like Kurds very much would also be a nightmare for Turkey. Hence Turkey wants Assad gone and gone now and if IS is the price, then so be it.

So Russian jets overflying Turkey means they come in over the "mainly" unprotected rear flank of the IS forces.... OK US forces are also operating out of Turkey but IS have embedded themselves in the civilian population and are not allowing the civilians to leave (which by the way is a war crime) and so the US and UK air strikes are essentially neutered. IS learned that from the way we ostracized Israel when they dealt with Hamas doing the same thing.

So, when Russia crushes IS and all the rebel groups and puts Assad back in total control of his country, Putin will have strong allies in Assad and the Shia PM in Iraq. He has waited for NATO to play their games, pussy foot around and inflame absolutely everyone in their overly PC attempt to resolve a fight which is nothing more than a bare knuckles prize fight without the Queensbury rules....

In short we handed this to Putin on a plate and he would be a total fool and a redneck if he did not take advantage of it. Putin is neither, he is a former Colonel in the KGB. Which means he is nobody's fool....

That's my analysis on it anyway. I do have some internal info on the middle eastern side which his not from the press or other sources who talk about this, but it is about 3rd hand. I could probably lift the phone and get some second hand answers but it's neither wise nor etiquette and, honestly, I don't really need to know to see the game which is being played out there.

[Workingman]

Yes, absolutely. Russia is in this for the long game, and it has an end-game plan:

1. Keep Assad (or another hard-liner) in power in Syria and crush any opposition.
2. Weaken Turkey by strengthening its Kurds and those in Syria and Iraq.
3. Send Iraq back to the Dark Ages and then take control with a puppet Shia PM in charge.

In the next few decades, or maybe only years, Iraq could split on ethnic-religious lines. The Kurds would get the north and north east. The formation of a united Kurdistan with Kurds from Syria and Turkey would then be on the cards. The Shia Arabs would get the south and south east - lots of oil there. The Sunni Arabs would be split between the two; and as most of them live in the western deserts, with few oil fields, they would be largely irrelevant.

At present Russia is sending out the message to the US coalition and allies, inc NATO, that, unlike them, Russia cannot bullied into doing things the US way and only the US way.

This weekend the Russians and Americans (not coalition or NATO) are holding talks to lessen the chances of both sides operating in the same air space as each other at the same time. By necessity that will mean an exchange of flight plans and communication frequencies. To my mind Russia holds the stronger hand. It is operating in Syria at the behest of the recognised government. The coalition is operating under a UN resolution, however, should that need to go back to the UN Russia would no doubt veto it or have it modified, probably in its favour.

The West manufactured the mess in the Middle East and now has no idea how to deal with it.

One other thing. Putin will be rubbing his hands with glee when he sees the tsunami of migrants, of all kinds, getting into Europe. He knows that they will be a destabilising factor for decades to come.

[Suff]

One other thing. Putin will be rubbing his hands with glee when he sees the tsunami of migrants, of all kinds, getting into Europe. He knows that they will be a destabilising factor for decades to come.

And just as glad they are not coming his way. Although he might jump with joy if they headed for Ukraine.

[KateLMead]

Thanks Suff and Frank.. You are both so perceptive and intelligent.. It will be interesting if not frightening to watch the progress of the situation. Do you think the UK and Europe are at risk of attack?.

[Workingman]

Yes, Kate, I do think that the UK, Europe and the West are at risk of attack(s), and have been for a lot longer than most people recognise.

I do not think that there is an official start date for Arab Islamic terrorism, it seemed to evolve from the Franco-British carve up of the Middle East after WWI, through Aden, the Palestinian uprisings of Al-Fatah and the PLO, Carlos the Jackal and others, to the present day.

It did not need Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya for things to be the way they are. All they did was concentrate the minds of the mad men and bring them together.