Predictable

[Suff]

Cameron unveils his 4 requirements for change from the EU.

On the one side the EU has started out by saying that what he wants is illegal.

On the other side the skeptics have started out saying that these 4 requirements for change only scratch the surface of the problem and don't go anywhere near the real problem.

The results are totally predictable. The EU didn't even listen. Cameron wasn't asking to do something illegal, he was demanding they change the legality of his requirement, by treaty, to make it legal. In other words the EU just said.

"We're not changing anything".

On the other side the skeptics are being totally predictable. They don't want to stay so anything short of turning the EU into a Vassal sated of the UK, or Brexit whichever is easier, will not be enough.

The only party being vaguely realistic is Cameron and his Government.

So, in the end, the decision remains the same. Do we want more of the same with the EU, including this mass immigration from the East? Or do we get out?

What I want, now, is for Cameron to be forced to climb down and campaign to leave. At this point, of course, the EU will start offering things we don't want in the hope we'll stay. What the EU fails to recognise is if Cameron is forced to climb down and support Brexit, he won't try again or grasp for any straw, he will follow his stated path and ask us to leave....

The only unpredictable person in this whole mess is Cameron. He's the wild card that everyone thinks will simply roll over for them. Just like he did over the illegal immigrants flooding into the EU southern states...... NOT......

I do wonder why they keep on underestimating him??? Is it the UK press who try to do him down at every single turn?? Surely they have better political analysts than that?

[TheOstrich]

As you say, Suff, the reactions were all predictable, although I think the impression being given over here is that the EU have not dismissed all the reforms out of hand - apart from the welfare benefit time limitations. These will probably be re-negotiated down to (say) two years from four to satisfy Eastern European sensitivities, giving Cameron the opportunity to lead the "Remain" campaign for the referendum.

Did he ask for enough? Well, not for me, not for Farage, not for a lot of Tory backbenchers, and I suggest probably not for a lot of UK residents. But it was, again as you say, the only reasonable course he could steer .....

[Workingman]

Hmmm,

*Protection of the single market for Britain and other non-euro countries
*Boosting competitiveness by setting a target for the reduction of the "burden" of red tape
*Exempting Britain from "ever-closer union" and bolstering national parliaments
*Restricting EU migrants' access to in-work benefits such as tax credits

They sound like goals rather than demands, and if his statement on immigrant welfare payments is anything to go by, moveable goals at that.

The sceptics are not impressed and, from comments I have read, neither are the public.

[Workingman]

A round up of today's editorials shows that many have Cameron down as Mr Wobbly.

[Suff]

Well the press and media have a 100% clean record. They know nothing about successful negotiations with the EU. We have had total submission (Blair/Brown) and outright handbagging (Thatcher), but we've never really had any successful negotiations on direction of the EU or how the end result should look.

Cameron has opened the haggling, now we expect the two sides to negotiate. If Cameron doesn't negotiate, then he's just handbagging and whilst that would work fine on financial matters, it won't work on treaties and the direction of the EU and it's open borders.

I expect the press to get it wrong entirely every single time. What I expect of the people of the UK is to open their minds and try and work out what they might do in the same circumstances with the same goals.

I'm guessing my expectations of the people are about as unreasonable as my expectations of the press although the end result will be very different... Because I expect the press to pretty much fulfil my expectations...

[Workingman]

But you can see where some are coming from. Some of the 'demands' are, at best, nebulous.

*Protection of the single market for Britain and other non-euro countries

Is there any indication that is going to happen? It would hurt the €zone as much as the EU and the EEA. Many non-€ countries would be tempted to leave.

*Boosting competitiveness by setting a target for the reduction of the "burden" of red tape

Sounds good, but what is the burden, and at what level should it be set? We all agree it is there and is damaging. It does not need to be a UK demand, it is something that should be dealt with anyway.

*Exempting Britain from "ever-closer union" and bolstering national parliaments

Does that mean pushing the UK further to the periphery and, if so, is it a good thing? If closer union does happen and we are not part of it would we not be better off out?

*Restricting EU migrants' access to in-work benefits such as tax credits

Now this is the one the EU says is problematic - in-work benefits such as tax credits. But isn't the UK trying to do away with tax credits in the long term? What about not-in-work benefits? And notice that Cameron is prepared to negotiate it other places come up with alternatives.

Laying one's cards on the table is one thing. Having a hand of jokers is another.

[Suff]

In some way's it's quite brilliant. Because the EU has been demanding that Britain tell them what they want. So Cameron has said, here is what we want, generally, tell me what you offer.

It is a classic reversal of the tactics Brussels has been using against the UK and has been applied to Brussels. Because we did not specify, Brussels wanted a clear list they could simply say no to. Now Cameron has sent them a list and they have to tell him what they propose. Putting the ball back in their court.

The points about the € and ever closer union are treaty changes because both those pieces are in the Lisbon Treaty and it would required a treaty change to modify them. Brussels would have to produce a mini treaty which modifies the Lisbon Treaty and that they are not going to do.

Yes you are correct. Rejecting the Lisbon treaty provisions for the currency of a superstate, the union of a superstate and (not stated here but a reality), the military of a superstate, will push the UK to the very periphery of the EU. Well we're already there but it will just formalise it and make it permanent. So we should just leave.

We don't need to be in the EU if we are going to be pushed out in all matters which are key and crucial to the EU.

I did like the fact that Cameron has finally stated, openly, that the UK is the second largest economy in the EU and the fifth largest economy in the world. Something the EU would be loath to lose and a position in which the UK need not fear being outside of the EU...

[Suff]

I noticed the statement from Cameron about the "Not Mission Impossible" on EU changes but wasn't thinking that much about it.

Mission Impossible? No, just mission EU...

EU??? Extremely Unlikely

[Workingman]

I see Donald Tusk, has now said that any talks would be "tough, very, very tough".

Does that mean the EU will give Cameron the fight he needs? Will there be a period of toing and froing between London and Brussels with talks into the small hours? Will there be a little bit of "give" here and "take" there to make things look meaningful? Will the process end up with Cameron heading home with his piece of paper claiming a win to allow him to campaign for the UK to remain a member?

The EU does not want the UK to leave and none of Cameron's demands are deal breakers, but making it look like a fight suits both sides.

[Suff]

Opening the Lisbon Treaty to remove the statement about "The currency of the EU is the Euro" is a total deal breaker. They won't do it and they intend to use that treaty as the signing treaty of every new state (read Turkey), to force them into the Euro as soon as possible.

There may be a fight, but there will be very little that comes out of it. Cameron's changes are a sword in the heart of the entire EU project. They can't allow him to have what he wants and expect the EU to continue to the superstate they are working for.

Ergo, no matter what the discussions, they can't give him most of what he wants. No matter how vaguely worded. To do so would be Euro Zone suicide now that they are finally living what was prophesied back in 99. Namely that currency union without political and fiscal union was tantamount to economic suicide.....

But it will be interesting to watch...