by cromwell » 05 Feb 2013, 09:31
As a fully paid up pessimist, I reckon the EU referendum could still be won by the "Yes" camp.
On the "Yes" side we have:-
The Eu itself, naturally.
The Labour party, the Conservative party and the LibDems.
The BBC and Sky TV news.
Big business (very important, that).
Set against that lot, a couple of newspapers don't add up to much.
Any referendum campaign would be quite possily, the dirtiest political campaign that the UK has ever seen. The history of the UK's involvement with the EU has been a history of lies, starting off with Ted Heath and his "No loss of sovereignty".
And in my opinion there is no dirty trick that the "Yes" camp wouldn't pull, and no lie they wouldn't tell, to get their own way.
If you think that's harsh, remember some of the people who will be campaigning for the "Yes" camp - 'Lord' Mandelson and the Very Reverend Teflon Tone amongst them.
So my most likely scenario is that after a campaign of lies, scaremongering and dirty tricks, the "Yes" campaign wins. Politicians declare the issue closed forever, until the next opinion poll shows that 66% now want to leave the EU and we are all back to moaning about it...
"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored" - Aldous Huxley