Negotiating with the the EU

[Suff]

Is not an easy thing. Cameron seems to think that he is talking to a bunch of leaders who have the best interests of the EU at heart and are going to come to some agreement to make it work in a better way.

Cameron, on negotiating with the EU, needs to put his short trousers back on and get back to school. He has already learned this one over the Transaction Tax, so why does he have to go political and learn the same lesson all over again???

After the whole Syriza, Tsipras, Greek Tragedy finished this year, I read one article which summed the whole thing up. It was an abject failure because Tsipras fatally underestimated the EU and the ECB.

What the article said was that Tsipras crippled himself from day 1 by saying that he would do everything in his power to stay in the Euro. This gave the EU and the ECB unlimited power over him and gave Tsipras virtually no power over the EU and the ECB.

Now lets take this and apply it to the EU referendum.

Cameron has said that he fundamentally wants to stay and will campaign to stay unless he gets some renegotiation.

So he's crippled himself and put himself in the situation that every time he says he wants something someone else in the EU says NO, I don't want that. On the basis that Cameron really wants to stay so he will make it happen.

What the article on Greece said was that Tsipras should have said "I am pulling Greece out of the Euro and redenominating all debt in Drachma unless you do something to fix the economic situation in Greece with me". Thus putting the whole onus of resolving the issue squarely with the Troika unless they wanted to lose shedloads of money.

Lets now apply this to the referendum. Cameron should have said "I will be campaigning for a UK exit because I no longer believe that the current make up of the EU and the EU goals are in step with the UK. However, if the EU were to come up with solutions to the concerns of the UK, then I will campaign to stay. Here is a list of areas I require to you make significantly better".

Cameron would then have put the EU squarely in the firing line and every time they came up with a pitiful whining nothing to solve the issues he could simply have said "No that is not in the interests of the UK, go back and think again". His entire campaign would have been positive, even to the point of exit. The EU would have been exposed for what they are and the UK could have made a real and informed decision come the polls. If the EU had come up with the treaties and reforms, then Cameron could, quite rightly, have changed his stance and campaigned to stay in the EU without being seen as a turncoat.

There is still a little time left for him to take this approach. Feb is his last chance. Pursuing the EU beyond Feb if they don't agree is a complete waste of time.

Sadly Baroness Thatcher is not around to advise him on how you successfully negotiate with the EU. Cameron thinks the EU is a group of 28 nations working for the best of the EU. In fact it is a group of 28 nations working for themselves and against everyone else. If it jus so happens that this works for the EU they will go along with it. If it does not then tough luck.

I'm becoming increasingly irritated with both Cameron and Merkel over the Merkel stance of "not compromising free movement". There is no compromise on free movement, only on access to benefits that have not been paid into by those people moving freely. Especially if that is the ONLY reason for moving. It's time Cameron told her to shut up about "Free movement" and start focusing on economic migrants. After all she has enough of that problem herself right now which she has handled impressively BADLY.

[medsec222]

I'm becoming increasingly irritated with both Cameron and Merkel over the Merkel stance of "not compromising free movement". There is no compromise on free movement, only on access to benefits that have not been paid into by those people moving freely. Especially if that is the ONLY reason for moving. It's time Cameron told her to shut up about "Free movement" and start focusing on economic migrants. After all she has enough of that problem herself right now which she has handled impressively BADLY.

Mutti Merkel stated all Syrians who wanted to come to Germany were welcome. That was her choice. However, she then started complaining that the other nations were not doing their share. Well that is their choice.

[Workingman]

I have been saying much the same thing for ages.

From the moment he announced that he would not stand again as PM he was a dead man walking. EU leaders know that the person they will really have to deal with will be Osborne or Boris.

Cameron has also made it clear, on many occasions, that he wants the UK to remain in the EU. The EU leaders also know that all the other main parties, with the exception of UKIP, want the UK to stay in the EU.

Only one of Cameron's four demands, the proposal to limit EU migration by making migrants wait four years for benefits, carries any weight. The rest are non-issues for either the EU or the UK public. The migrant issue will be watered down to provide both sides with a victory so that Cameron can continue to campaign to stay in.

The big spanner in the works, for all the politicians, is us. According to regular polls about 80% of us have already made our minds up and the split is hovering around the 50:50 mark. It is the 20% who are undecided who will win the day and I have a gut feeling that they are leaning towards Brexit in the ratio of 2:1.

[Suff]

Certainly what is currently going on is likely to convince most waverers for out.

It just depends no how much they can be scared by horror stories of the UK becoming a banana republic if we left the EU....