So there you have it...

[Suff]

In an article from the Telegraph talking about how the "deal" for the UK cannot be legally binding, the head of the commission says

Ahead of talks with David Cameron on Britain's membership, Mr Juncker said: "If I would say now that we have a plan B, this would indicate a kind of willingness of the commission to envisage seriously that Britain could leave the European Union.

"So I am not entering into the details of a plan B, because we don't have a plan B, we have a plan A."

In my mind there is only one possible response to this level or total arraogance....

LEAVE!

[Workingman]

I don't see what the problem is; apart from Cameron leading us down the garden path.

Nobody, anywhere, would make something legally binding when the proposals are only in draft form, and a draft agreement is what Cameron wants. Even now he still might not get it, so what can the EU do?

All this is being rushed because Cameron set a deadline rather than going into negotiations to get a new deal, including treaty changes if necessary, with something new to offer. He wanted his political legacy. Instead he will come back with his version of 'Chamberlain's paper' and it will be left to the UK electorate to either accept or refuse it.

[Aggers]

In my mind there is only one possible response to this level or total arrogance....

LEAVE!

I quite agree.

My short-and-sweet motto is now: SOD THE EU

[Suff]

The problem is really this.

The clear attitude that we're not going to leave so there is no need to pander to what Cameron wants.

If the attitude is that the EU can do anything they want, make any condition they want and drive any policy or legal framework they want. All based on their belief that whatever they do we will never leave, only whine or try to gain advantage over it.

Then the only possible response from the voting public is to leave. Because it is absolutely crystal clear that they do not believe that their edifice they have created can be so bad that anyone would possibly want to leave.

They need us far more than we need them. I'm not saying that it will all be roses and champagne if we leave. What I'm saying is that the only way we are going to change the EU is to leave and, then, should we wish to, join again with terms written into treaties which are favourable to the UK, all written, voted on and enshrined in blood Before we choose to re-join.

I don't believe we will ever change the EU from within. So why stay. Get out and then have the discussions. Let the calamity fall on idiots like the presidents of the institutions and make them understand that they are not supermen who can't ever be requested to do something they don't want to.

I'm not interested in people listening to what Cameron wants. I'm interested in people listening to what the EU is saying and basing their decisions on that. After all, it is what the EU is saying and not what Cameron is saying, right now, that is the important thing. Notably our press is focusing on Cameron and tending to hide what the EU say...

Remember that what Cameron agrees, or does not agree, this week; has to be approved and voted in by the full EU parliament. The chances of which are slim especially as it's likely the UKIP will not vote for it...

[Workingman]

They need us far more than we need them.

Do they? I am not so sure. Without us the EU/Eurozone projects can go forward without hindrance or delay in order to appease us, even if the appeasement is only temporary.

I also doubt that we would ever be let back in. If we were it would certainly not be on our terms.

Once we leave we have to go it alone as an open trading nation. We will have to do our own deals with the rest of the world, including the EU. If we do we are going to have to re-establish some sort of manufacturing base because we cannot rely on banking, insurance and services forever. The Eurozone, for example, could make Frankfurt its major stock exchange and trading centre in no time at all.

One fall-back option, plan B, might be to try re-establish EFTA as a working model, but there are no guarantees.

[Suff]

The UK does more than 45% of world trading. The US does about 35%. The EU including the UK is les than 30% of all world trade.

If the EU throw a paddy and go off on their own, they will be a minor player on the world stage. They need us and they know it. The main reason their markets are not leading is that their regulations are so restrictive that they have to come to the UK to trade. This will not change if the UK leaves the EU, in fact the UK will probably become more desirable as EU regulations could be dumped.

I would love to see the EU shown just how insignificant it is on the world financial stage.

[Workingman]

Oh, please.

The majority of UK 'trade' is in banking, insurance and services. Even then we have a negative trade gap. Not one of them needs to be based in the UK. If any one of them wanted to move from the UK it would be difficult, but not impossible. Frankfurt anyone?

They might, now, be a big player in the UK's GDP, but if they choose to go?

Can we stop them? No. Could they make more money elsewhere? Some might think so.

Where does that leave us? Somewhere without a paddle!

[Suff]

It might be worth reading the BIS UK trade performance across market sectors. (can't do this on a mobile device easily...)

It makes very interesting reading. Especially when you look at the% penetration into othor countries markets an the marked lack of EU countries in the list outside of Germany and France. ...

[Workingman]

Who do we believe?

The BBC has a headline that Donald Tusk says that the EU has no choice over the UK's reforms, yet Sky, quoting a Tusk letter to EU leaders, says that there is no guarantee of a deal at the summit.

My take is that there will be a fudge. Cameron can then say he got a deal, and the EU can say there were no fundamental reforms. Both sides will be right and wrong at the same time.

[Suff]

We don't believe any of them. We ask outselves about all the things that have driven this referendum and whether what is offered will resolve any or all of them.

If the answer to that is no, then the response is easy... Vote leave.

If the answer to that question is yes to any degree, then a judgemental decision must be made. Then it's up to each person to decide what to do about it. ..