by Suff » 03 Jun 2017, 23:16
I guess, first of all, if you believe the polls.
I suppose, secondly, if the UK backs out of A50 now, it will never attempt to leave again. Because it would take another 20 years to try and leave and by then the vast majority of the UK would not really know a time when the UK was not in the EU or the EEC.
I guess there is a simple tactic here. If there is a weak government just use the vote of confidence to force the changes through.
However when you talk about the polls and it's impact on our Brexit negotiations, you have to factor in at least some party politics. There are 4 parties which are viable to vote for in this election. Only one of them has a plan for actually getting out. It may not be much of a plan but it is a plan. The rest? Rhetoric aside? Swing between "I'm not leaving" and "ask me after the election and I'll think about it".
If the Tories don't win, then the end result is not likely to be good. If the Tories do win with a smaller majority? Likely to be somewhat better but still not good. If the Tories win with a larger majority; Brexit will be smoother (in whatever form), but we'll pay the price elsewhere.
I've just had a look at the polls up to June 1st and they do not seem to match the rhetoric in the press, from either side.
It looks to me like the tory press is selling "vote now or lose it" and the Labour press is selling "just get out and vote and we'll win it". The SNP are muddying the water with a "we'll work with Labour so long as it works for us" and the Lib Dems are mewling about a whole load of things I really don't care very much about. Which might be dismissive but, honestly, if they get more than 6 seats Farron will have done well.
In short if the Lib Dems get more than 8% of the vote I'll be surprised, if the UKIP get more than 3% I'll be surprised and I'll be very interested to see what happens in the North East and Scotland.
Whatever happens on the 8th, I'll be interested to see, on the 9th, what the plan is. Because that's the only day when we will have the slightest clue how Brexit is going to go.
There are 10 types of people in the world:
Those who understand Binary and those who do not.