The shattering of Catalan assumptions

[Suff]

A few days ago I made a prediction about the Catalan President who went to Brussels to avoid the backlash of the Spanish government.

It was clear that he thought the EU was a bastion of democracy and would champion his cause. My prediction was that

1. The EU would treat him like a pariah and ignore him
2. He would refuse to go back to Spain when the courts called him and he would call on the EU to back him
3. Spain, once he did not appear in court, would raise an EU arrest warrant
4. The ex president would be arrested and transported back to Spain

So far 1,2 and 3 have unfolded. I'm waiting for #4. These EU arrest warrants are now a known quantity and are followed up very promptly. So there is virtually no chance of avoiding one and as EU state law is inferior to EU law in this issue, no state court can block it. The only way to block an EU arrest warrant is to get the EU court to void it and there is no way that will happen before he's back in Spain and in a jail cell.

Spain is determined to slam these guys away for the rest of their natural lives so that this never happens again. It is clear they never learn. If they want a slow burn civil war this is exactly the way to go about it.

But the greatest message, for me, is that the EU is not Synonymous with Democracy. Something that the majority of people in many EU states believe it is. Sadly most of the people in the other states will not be following this news so they will not understand what is going on.

If I were on his team I would have told him to get his backside to New York and petition the UN. That would have moved him outside of the EU and the EU arrest warrant. What he did is not extraditable from the US either. Instead he put him right in the firing line of an EU arrest warrant and petitioned a group who have no interest in having a Catalan state within the EU, separate from Spain. Any more than it wanted to deal with Scotland as a separate state in the EU.

[Kaz]

I think a slow burn civil war is the most likely outcome The Spanish are handling this situation incredibly badly, storing up so much trouble for the future!

[Suff]

It is a very poor showing in terms of governing the country. It is totally dictatorial which never works well. Especially when you have 2m votes against central government.

There is some precedent for what is happening because Catalonia had its own government before Franco and went into exile after they lost the civil war.

What I find amusing is that they will only truly realise the democratic credentials of the EU institutions when they are contemplating the rest of their lives in Spanish Jail.

A very hard way to find out what the EU is all about.

[Workingman]

I know, let's forget the illegal referendum and jump straight to sainthood for these people.

And whilst we're at it we can blame the EU for anything and everything that in our minds we think is wrong.

[Suff]

Every act of self determination by a group of people has been illegal except, as far as I know, for the Scottish independence referendum.

I am not blaming the EU for being what it is, I'm blaming the idiots who created the EU whilst believing it was something else. I am highlighting how totally screwed these Catalan politicians are because they did not understand what they were part of.

Also I'm highlighting how we, the western countries are viewed in the rest of the world. Just a bunch of nimbys. Oh yes we can bomb legitimate government troops of countries recognised by the UN, supporting illegal and Treasonous separatists, but support a democratic vote facilitated by the legal regional government of a smile autonomous region??

No chance. Even the tolerance of Cameron giving Scotland a referendum based on a majority vote in the Scottish government is long gone.

Had the Catalan government actually understood the "democracy" they lived in, they would have expelled the Guarda Civil, taken over the army barracks, closed the borders and advised the Spanish government that they could either stand by the democratic vote or start the war.

Instead they are going to spend the rest of their lives in Jail.

Take a step outside the western world bubble and look at it from the outside.

[Workingman]

In early September the Catalan parliament held a vote to hold an independence referendum. The vote was boycotted by the opposition who said it was unconstitutional but it was passed 70 - 10, a "majority" of 52% - not enough for a constitutional change.

Spain then asked the constitutional courts in Spain and Catalonia and both adjudged it to be illegal and against the constitution of 1978, which was signed up to by Catalonia. In 1978 the Catalans were asked in a referendum if they agreed to the constitution and 90% said yes.

The illegal referendum was held on October the 1st. 43% of Catalans took part with 90% voting for independence. Using that "majority" of 38% Puigdemont then made a unilateral declaration of independence.

UDI left Spain with little choice but to impose direct rule.

I agree that Spain has handled the situation badly, and two wrongs do not make a right, but Spain was not the instigator. Bringing in past events from different places is meaningless and pointless unless we want to compare apples and coconuts. What is meaningful is the holding of fresh elections in December. In the run-up to them there will have to be dialogue between both sides and no doubt the constitution, as is, will play a big part. The result will almost certainly change the make up of the Catalan parliament and, hopefully, from then there will come peace whilst new negotiations between the Spanish and Catalans take place. Puigdemont has made a start in calling for "peaceful protest" and turning away from violence.

[Suff]

So, let me see.

If a country signs a treaty in 1978, to bind itself into a constitution with other countries, it can never leave until a majority of the countries say it is OK and the courts who derive their power from that union say it's OK. Sign a constitution in 1978 and you will still be in it at 3078 because it is illegal to call for a vote on leaving.

When America seceded from the empire it was Judged illegal. We even threw a war over it and the Americans threw us off their continent.

My point is simple. We, the US, the EU and many more of the first world, have been guilty of supporting illegal rebel organisations with weapons and military power, in the last half decade. Now we want to decry a legitimate and democratic attempt for self determination by picking at legalese and throwing media slurs?? How very European. Perhaps I was wrong, perhaps we do belong.

Even so, the key point I was making here was that the politicians of the EU States don't even understand the monster they have created.

Funny to think that in 5 years time the UK could become the safe haven for EU citizens trying to avoid EU arrest warrants. Ironic that it used to be Spain they all went to.

[Workingman]

So, let me see.

If a country signs a treaty in 1978, to bind itself into a constitution with other countries, it can never leave until a majority of the countries say it is OK and the courts who derive their power from that union say it's OK. Sign a constitution in 1978 and you will still be in it at 3078 because it is illegal to call for a vote on leaving.

That is a work of grand fiction never seen in the real world.

Following the death of Franco in 1975 there were a number of bills passed to bring Spain forward as a democracy. This led to the Spanish Constitution of 1978. Catalonia was a region of Spain at that time and signed up to the constitution. It later received autonomy in 2006.

The latest attempt at independence has been deemed to be illegal by the Spanish and Catalonia's own court and that is because the process was flawed. The International community also agrees with the courts, which says quite a lot. Following due process might have led to a different outcome and a legally allowed referendum. As things stand the referendum held was neither legal nor democratic.

What this has to do with the EU or the American War of Independence baffles me. I must have been misled into believing it was an internal Spanish problem set in the present.

[Suff]

OK, the point.

Spain will never allow a referendum on Catalan independence. Ever. Because the majority of the Spanish believe that they own Catalonia and that they should do as they are told.

The reference to the US is simple, we Owned the US and they illegally seceded. In fact just about every colony, taken by force has had to do it this way.

The Spanish lost any moral ground when they tried to break up a legitimate democratic vote on independence, with violence.

The only reason that the International community stands with Spain is because most of them have colonies, territories and regions who want independence.

Where this brings the EU into it is in the expectations of the very people who created it. The UK has been derided for decades as being anti EU. Please allow me the last laugh when some of those who derided us face life in jail because the EU we saw happens to be the real one and the purveyors of derision are finding that their vision of the EU is nothing more than a fairy story...