And we were told that the banks

[Suff]

Would flood out of the UK and into Europe because of Brexit.

However it would appear that, from a Guardian article and it's source ECB communication that banks have absolutely no intention of leaving London and are intending to do the absolute minimum required to allow them to continue to trade Euro trades.

And, of course, lest we forget, the Euro is only 19 of the 27 states left in the EU when the UK leaves. Which puts it pretty much down below China in terms of GDP and lending and financial importance.

There has been talk about the Renmimbi taking over as a reserve currency and that the UK could become, once leaving the EU, the premier centre in the world for Renmimbi clearing and denominated financing. The thought had occurred to me that the banks, especially the non EU banks, have absolutely no intention of leaving London for Paris or Frankfurt and missing the largest ever single expansion in a clearing and lending market.

The tone of the ECB communication comes over to me as concerned. In the end if Banks meet the letter of the law but the EU trades and clearing continues in London, they continue to lose all that lucrative transaction tax the banks don't pay in London.

I suspect we will be seeing a tussle of wills over the next year. Absolutely nothing to do with the Brexit negotiations at state level, but to do with Banks and the ECB going head to head over what the ECB wants and what the Banks are willing to give them....

It is going to be an amusing few months...

Expect the Guardian and the Independent to play it as a weakness of the UK.... As ever in this Brexit situation. However, just like the Government winning every one of its votes in parliament on the Brexit Bill, so far, our banking is stronger than they report; just as is the government.

[Workingman]

It's all as clear as mud. Oh look, it's all going so well....

From the Gridiron link, if you read it:

Officials say that if banks are lending to individuals and businesses in the eurozone, they must manage that risk from inside the region and not London.

Draghi knows that when the next crash comes, regulators need to call senior officials within their jurisdiction and not a clerk who occasionally polishes the sign on the door.

So it’s clear he is serious, which means the banks must revise their “Brexit-related relocation plans” to include “permanent local trading capabilities and local risk committees” with commensurate numbers of staff and managers.

We’ve seen a few estimates of finance jobs going to the continent post-Brexit. The Bank of England believes 75,000 is a reasonable guess. Now that Draghi is cracking the whip, prepare to see that number rise

Then comes the news from Goldman Sachs..

Mr Blankfein tweeted: "Here in UK, lots of hand-wringing from CEOs over #Brexit... So much at stake, why not make sure consensus still there?"
The firm, which is known to have taken office space in Frankfurt, employs about 6,000 people in London. Banks are particularly worried the UK will fail to strike an EU trade deal.

The banks fear that after Britain leaves the EU their businesses will lose "passporting rights", which allows them to sell financial services across borders.
Mr Blankfein's tweet went on to say: "Better sense of the tough and risky road ahead. Reluctant to say, but many wish for a confirming vote on a decision so monumental and irreversible.

It is all so Brexit positive is it not?

I know, let's spin it that way and have a good laugh as we traipse, hand-in-hand, to Brexitopia, the land of milk and honey Unicorns and Money Trees.

What could possibly go wrong?

[Suff]

It is all so Brexit positive is it not?

I know, let's spin it that way and have a good laugh as we traipse, hand-in-hand, to Brexitopia, the land of milk and honey Unicorns and Money Trees.

What could possibly go wrong?

Of course it's not positive. How could leaving a union like the EU be anything other than negative in the short term. Especially as the core original states who created the EEC think it's the best thing since sliced bread and those in power in the EU see a lessening of that power.

But here is my point.

Just a few weeks ago the Guardian was trumpeting that the banks were planning to move from London, lock, stock and barrel. We were going to lose our financial centre. 200,000 people were going to be lost from London's financial scene. It was going to wipe billions off our GDP....

Now we get an official ECB document which states that the banks had no intention of doing anything of the kind. That the banks, like everyone else who knows the financial scene, know that London is the largest INTERNATIONAL banking hub in the world and that the EU is only about 20% of that banking trade. Something the EU really, really, hates to admit as they think they're the mutts nuts when it comes to everything trade and financial in the world.

Why would the banks relocate to member states in the EU, who regulate more heavily than the UK, damaging that 80% of trade, just to save the 20%????

The answer, obviously, is that they won't. All the ECB can do is to try and interfere in banks structure and force that 20% of trade into EU states when we leave.

Of course that means that they then isolate that 80% of trade from their own. Meaning they are walled off from the huge capital markets where they raise some €1.6tn of debt for their states and companies.

Of course the ECB is trying to force the 80% of trade into the EU, so they can protect their debt that they run on.

My take? When the dust settles the UK will remain the largest banking hub in the world and will become much bigger over time. Much to the fury of the EU as they will be left with no choice but to allow their businesses to trade with us, just as they trade on New York, Hong Kong and Singapore.

If the ECB thinks that EU companies are going to stay locked up in EU banking and drive their financial costs up, they had better think again. Because the medium and up companies will become multinational before they put up with that. At which point instead of firefighting American companies who don't want to pay EU taxes, they're going to be running around trying to put out thousands of fires of EU companies who are shifting revenue offshore and not paying EU taxes.

Which, whilst not rosy in the short term, is reality in the long term. Unlike the fearmongering and doing down of the UK that outlets like the Guardian are guilty of on a daily basis.

On their own heads be it.

[Workingman]

The Guardian and the Independent were reporting that the CEO of the London Stock Exchange was predicting that 200,000 finance jobs could be lost due to Brexit. It was not opinion, fiction or spin, it is what was said.

What are they supposed to do - hide it under the bedclothes?

The same goes for Blankfein. He tweeted his thoughts on ref2 and the media picked up on it, some reports were positive about it, some were negative. Nonetheless he has stood by what he said in further tweets. The fact is that his thoughts on the matter are out there.

The media has again come out with positive and negative reporting opinions.

As for the ECB's supervision perspective, it is reiterating its stance from before Brexit about the operations of financial sevices within the EU when they are being offered by third countries, which is what the UK will become as we Brexit.

How it will effect the EU viz-a-viz trading with the UK is entirely up to them.

We quite rightly pan the media, especially with its dumbing down of the news, but it appears that it cannot win on some things. I am as guilty as anyone of not liking seeing facts I disagree with being reported, but it does not change them from being facts. My opinions about them will not change anything so I try to chill out, not always successfully.

[Suff]

In general WM, I would agree about the press. However 200k was not a fact, it was an opinion and, at the very best, an estimate.

What I don't like are these guesses or estimates being pushed as absolute fact.

As for the ECB stance, I understand what they are trying to do. If it were only trading with the UK I would totally agree with you. However London is not just the place that the Eurozone and the EU Trade finance with the UK, it is the place that they trade finance with the rest of the world.

The ECB is the tail trying to wag the dog.

I like to point that out from time to time because it changes the entire landscape of the discussion.

[Suff]

To be balanced about it, I find this article from the BBC to be informative, honest and balanced.

Needless to say it does not please the Hard Brexiteer, nor the Hard Remainer. but the rest of us, in-between? I could hope that people would read and understand what is going on right now.

Especially these parts..

It's been all too obvious that the EU side has, for a long time, been clear that they'll only budge when the UK is ready to promise - even vaguely or implicitly - a lot more cash.

The hold-up has in part been that the UK has been pushing to make sure that taxpayers at home don't shell out when they don't have to.

Or put another way, the EU wants us to agree to pay, sight unseen, for some kind of deal. The leaked position paper from the EU, purporting to show that the EU has no intention of giving us any more than Canada, will not help the UK to agree one cent more than can reasonably explained to the people of the UK.

Of course there is bravado on both sides.

As ever, whether thinking of talks on the continent, or in government, take every utterance with a pinch of salt.

Quite. Of course I would not quite call it Bravado, I'd call it positioning and posturing.

On the subject of the Brexiteer ministers she has to say

They are not, thus far, ready to sign up to what they see as Number 10's version of the next move - a promise to pay a lot more cash, potentially as much as 50bn-60bn euros.

They do not rule it out completely, but not before it is clear what we get in return.

And here is the whole problem to the whole situation. The EU have no intention of giving us more than they gave Canada. So they're not going to spell out what they are giving because they know the UK is going to say "Canada has not paid you a penny and neither are we going to, get stuffed."

So we go round and round in circles waiting for someone to feel the pressure enough to break the logjam.

I think that Eire, insisting that they will Veto moving onto trade talks, may be a saviour for May. Because she can clearly show that the EU won't tell us the trade relationship and until they do it is impossible for the UK to categorically agree to any NI border deal. Because the border constraints will depend on how open trade is on that border.

Personally I believe that the longer it takes to agree a deal, the better. Because the EU is the less nimble here and will feel the pressure more. The EU27 have been told, categorically, that there is no legal precedent for them to get one red cent after March 2019. They have been told that the only way to get anything is to provide a united front and stonewall for as long as it takes.

The longer the UK refuses to bow down to the stonewalling, the greater the pressure in the EU will be. You can be absolutely sure that everyone of the 27 has been told they will foot the "UK bill" if they do not pressure the UK into paying it. The longer this goes on, the closer it gets to F.U, your money and the Horse you rode in on, the more nervous the EU27 are going to become. Eventually they will crack and become the backstabbing gaggle of adolescents they really are.

So long as our press and our government don't talk themselves into paying just because the EU is playing the biggest bluff ever seen in international politics, we will, eventually, win this one.

[Workingman]

... we will, eventually, win this one.

Of course we will, 17.1 million of those who voted voted to leave and we will have left, there's the win.

Whatever deal we get, from no deal to the softest of soft deals, will be claimed as a victory by Brexiters - "We've left, we won!". The strange thing is that whatever deal emerges the EU will also claim it as a win.

[Suff]

When did you know a bunch of politicians to say they lost something? Other than an election....

[Workingman]

My thing about the AI was a bit TIC.

MPs obviously have some intelligence, it is such a shame that they do not put it to proper use.