Negotiating with the EU

[Suff]

Hasn't changed since day 1.

If you go to the Google search and click on the top link you should get your one article click through to the FT.

It is a very interesting read.

It starts out.

The 280-page report is stamped “CONFIDENTIAL” for good reason. Britain’s chief negotiator is crushingly frank: from the start, Europe’s position amounted to making the UK “swallow the lot, and swallow it now”. And this, he admitted, “by and large, we had to do”.

Brexit right?

Written for the eyes of ministers, his personal reflections are of the most sensitive kind. Britain’s opening strategy had failed, the official explained. The UK embarked wanting to change the European project, but within six months had given up, realising the onus to change was on Britain itself.

Brexit again right? Cameron and all that..

Transition matters became the main topic, along with Europe’s extortionate financial demands. The UK negotiating hand was weak, with France trying to “squeeze every advantage out of the British desire for early progress”. On the matter of money, meanwhile, Germany had been “rather less generous . . . than we had hoped”.

Brexit again right?

But the paper was actually written 45 years ago, six months before Britain joined the European Community. Sir Con O’Neill’s report, held in the National Archives, recounts the 1970-72 accession talks he led. It is a rare account of what it is like to make demands in Brussels when national destiny is at stake. It also offers insights into the current talks — especially into which side holds the most leverage.

This is why we were offered a referendum in 1975 and again in 2016. It is what I would have voted to leave if I were living in the UK.

It is also a very clear what we have to do.

London is hopeful the calculus of EU leaders will change in trade talks. But Britain’s veteran diplomats are unconvinced. Sir Ivan Rogers, Mrs May’s former EU ambassador, noted it is “virtually never the case” that EU leaders are “less purist, less theological, more pragmatic and commercially driven than the ivory towers of Brussels”.“The keepers of the true flame, and defenders of the integrity of the project, are so often the leaders,” he said in a recent speech.

Or put another way, the leaders of the EU (France and Germany), have nothing to gain and everything to lose by allowing the UK to walk away with influence, economy and power intact.

The only way to deal with that is to put them into a situation where they have MORE to lose than they can afford. That is NO brexit bill, NO trade deal and WTO tariffs on the goods they import to us (100% more than we export to them).

If you measure it that way, then look at what our politicians are doing and what they are saying, you can imagine that they are trying to make the worst pigs ear of brexit that they possibly could.

Ces't la Vie.

[Workingman]

What?

EU leaders standing firmly by the project, well I never!

We had no hints that would be the case ... and nobody saw it coming. Oh wait.

Cameron came back from his pre referendum talks in Brussels empty handed. That was about as big a hint as there could be that the UK would have no influence whatsoever working from the outside. We might have had some influence from the inside had we worked at making alliances ... but that was not the UK way. We much preferred to sulk and suck our thumb.

Meanwhile, back at base ...

Following demands made by Leave Means Leave in a letter to the PM, Jeremy Hunt has come out and said that there will be no Brexit at all unless Theresa May is fully supported from all sides - No Brexit At All!

I bet that goes down well with all you Brexit hardliners.

The demands being made by the likes of John Redwoo and Nigel Lawson are:

*Reciprocal free trade without tarries between the UK and EU will be agreed by March 30th 2018
*The UK will be free to negotiate, sign and implement trade deals across th globe from 30th March 2019
*The European court of Justice will cease to have any jurisdiction whatsoever over the UK from 30th March 2019
*Freedom of movement to the UK for EU citizens on present terms will end from 30th March 2019
*Any necessary implementation period will not exceed two years
*No new EU regulations will apply to the UK from 30th March 2019
*Both parties will work diligently and in good faith to secure an agreement on the border of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland before the end of the negotiating process.

The fact that they have gone public implies they are not confident May and Davis are doing their bidding and that we are heading for a Brexfudge. They are also firing a shot across the bows of the EU with the warning that if May fails and a hardliner takes her place the above is essentially the UK 'offer'.

I do not think they are worried by Hunt's warning. They would like nothing more than to see May go and for Gove or Johnson to take (temporary) charge.

[manxie]

What you have both posted I had seen on the wall even before "brexit".

The Eu and the then government conned the man in the street from before the UK joined the EU.

Maybe I am thinking wrong but......... after WW11 the UK and the USA were both broke, Australia and other commonwealth countries who showed support , all almost bankrupt too.

Yet what did we do?? The UK and the USA virtually rebuilt Germany gave them more than they had before the war, as far as I know they did the same for Belguim and France, Italy, Malta, Cyprus, also Japan and the far east. Possibly also much of the occupied countries ravaged by the Nazis.

I do not have a problem per sae with what we did back then. But, isn't it sad how short their memories are regarding all we did for them over many years in that post war era, I remember rationing and shortages.

Now they still seem to think that WE should be giving them huge handouts to virtually do to us now what Hitler failed to do??

Does my opinion make me a bad person? uncaring? I don't think so, but I am saddenned that all my ancesters who sacrificed for peace and unity often to the ultimate extreem would be thinking we had been sold out.

I personally think we should say to Ireland north and south stand with us no need for a border just issue travel permits if required, also Scotland and Wales we now as much as in the past need to stand together and be firm, break away with no deals and go for a fantastic future.

I am sure there are many willing workers from the EU and other countries who would come to the UK on our terms and conditions and better themselves as well as the UK.

I am a believer that even if it is hard going initially we can all be better off in the long run out of the EU.

As I see things most of the EU financially is in a similar position,from what I read Greece, Spain, now many others? Then there are the countires wanting to join the EU what are they offering??

I think we are well out of it all trade with anyone and everyone from now on, stand alone if we have to as we have done in the past, I think we will do more trade with Australia, the old commonwealth etcetera and let them stew .

I would'nt pay a penny to them to leave it should be the other way round because over all these years we have paid in more than most of the others.

Maybe like Poland we should be sueing Germany for Billions in recompense, who else is there?? let me think? Norway? Denmark? Russia? They would need Tennalady pads if we all did similar at the same time lol.

I am old now I remember lots, I served 4 years in Germany in the 60s with the army even then if we had an exercise and broke an old rotten fence ???? the Army had to pay the german landowner compo for the fence and he got a new one, and often a lost cow or three? it was a joke back then and I personally think they are still playing the old soldier on us.

Manxie xx

[Suff]

Not quite the point I was making.

Most Remainers seem to think that the EU is full of those wonderful people who are so reasonable and it is such a wonderful thing to be IN and that being OUT would be a disaster.

Reality is a tad different. The EU is full of self obsessed backstabbers who see the EU as the ONLY way to get some power in the world. As such Nations like the UK are a threat to be dumbed down and dismissed. They have almost succeeded, they have managed to convince almost half the UK that the UK is some backwater semi banana republic who, like a broken tricycle, can't stand on it's own in the world without the EU.

At the same time the EU is parading the UK power and influence in the world as their own.

In 44 Years and after 2 re-vamps, the EU has, essentially, never changed.

The FT may think it is making a case for capitulation, but it is not. If ever there was a case of taking our ball back and finding a new playing field to play with others who are more reasonable; this is it.

Sadly our own politicians are so clueless they don't even understand what they need to do in order to represent the country to its best advantage..

Still, in the end, the UK out of the EU can modify ANY agreement made here because it will be between one Sovereign state and one trading block. The trading block has no choice but to negotiate if the Sovereign state decides to terminate the deal. Once it is out, that is.

Whilst I might be lobbying HARD for the UK to do a decent exit right now, in the very long run I don't care how much they fudge it so long as the UK is OUT of the EU and is a separate sovereign Nation. With the ability to Unilaterally exit from ANY deal fudged now.

I can live with almost all short term fudges except a deal which forces the UK to be bound to the EU in a way that only the EU can let us go.

The point is what I can live with is the absolute baseline. Only losers settle for the baseline, winners strive for better.

[Workingman]

Meanwhile a new poll has found that 50% of people support a ref on the final terms of any Brexit deal, 34% reject another referendum and 16% said they did not know.

The poll does not define how people would vote, but what it does say is that people are coming round to the idea that parliament should not have the final say.

If the numbers keep going in that direction another spanner gets thrown in the works. Remainers in Cabinet vastly outnumber Leavers and they might feel that the country would vote down any deal and thus stop Brexit. It might make them push for putting the final deal to the public.

I sincerely hope that does not happen, but as both sides have not shied away from using dirty tactics anything is possible.

[Suff]

Yes, well, the press keep on pushing out this ridiculous BS all the time with their polls about things that are not going to happen.

Reality 1:

They can vote whatever they want. The EU has the final say and the UK can take it or leave it.

Reality 2:

The people can vote for whatever they want. But cancelling Brexit and not leaving the EU is not something they can vote for. That is the Exclusive competence of the EU27 and now that we have put them through this wringer, it is highly unlikely that they would vote to keep us.

Reality 3:

Cameron may not have wanted to do anything about Brexit without a full referendum, but creating a deal to leave the EU is the premise of the Government and Remainer, or Leaver, neither MP's nor Cabinet ministers will want to make a precedent of handing that power over to the Plebs...

As for the surveys. Let's tell the people the truth. We have three avenues to move forward.

1: Create a deal and pay to access the EU trade market. We'll have to compromise on some things and pay more money than it would take to support our trade transition to the rest of the world for at least 2 decades.

The UK remains bound to the EU in a smaller or larger extent and we will probably take the next 5 decades untangling the mess and getting on with trading with the world that is growing fastest.

In the short term everything looks rosy, we keep our airlines running and our holidays to the sun. In the long term it slowly but surely goes sour as the EU squeezes us for more and more whilst giving us platitudes.

2: Bang out, hard Brexit. We'll have to do some very fast deals on things like trade, Aviation and other key areas. We take the money we were paying to the EU and use it where it works best for us. There will be winners and there will be losers. But the pain will eventually go away and the UK will have a new position in the world.

3: We try and stop Brexit. We go begging to the EU 27 to stop the process. They demand Major concessions. We have to join Schengen, we have to join the Euro. We wind up back in the EU with no rebate and as if we were a new joiner. They might even insist that we apply the transaction tax on our financial trading.

Now let's see how the people vote on those 3 options.

Of course we'll never see it. Because the Leave press are not interested in even talking about it and the Remain press will tell Anything but the Truth.

[cromwell]

They are out to punish us; it was always going to be that way.
We should pay what we signed up to pay and no more.
Unfortunately the current generation of UK politicians strike me as being the most useless bunch of wasters in recorded history; they seem to think that if they creep and grovel we'll get a better deal. Wrong.

[Workingman]

We all know that we trash polls when they do not agree with our opinions, but so what? The numbers are out there and some people will do a "hmmm, I wonder" and it might make them think... The Survation poll ws carried out for the Daily Mail, an arch LEAVE newspaper, so no remainer influence there.

But do wait until the Remainer press gets hold of it, there is no telling what will happen then.

The danger, for us all, is that if the politicians feel the ground moving they might just be tempted ... Do remember they are opportunists of the first order.

Cromwell, a bigger shower it is hard to imagine and some of them, cowards, would just love to push the decision back on us plebs.

[Suff]

WM, I don't disagree with the result. I disagree with the sanity of the question. Or more a case of the agenda behind the question.

As for the DM they are not Leave, they are Populist Anti's. Anti EU, Anti Cameron, Anti Corbyn. Now that Brexit is the status quo, they're going to start poking at the government and Brexit itself...

But the Guardian, Independent and others have been running polls for weeks now showing that people are "not happy" and extrapolating this to mean that we "just might" not Brexit.

As for the politicians "feeling the ground moving". They are absolutely clear that failing to deliver Brexit will decimate them at the polls. Even more than Labour the Tory grass root votes contain a huge portion of Leave voters. Attempting to derail Leave and they will not be forgiven. Any more than Labour MP's in the North East will be forgiven if they fudge it.

In the last 44 years this country has forgotten that when you face belligerents you stand together and face them shoulder to shoulder. As the EU27 are doing today. Backbiting, infighting and recriminations can wait till the war is over.

Perhaps we need to learn that all over again.

[medsec222]

I would be happy for the UK just to go. If the EU wants any money from us they are free to make a case.