Negotiating with the EU

[manxie]

I feel that Suffs Number two is the best route agreeing with Medsec

I am most saddenned by the lies and lack of any moral fibre being shown by the politicians as well

Get on with it get out then haggle as to payment and build as fast as possible all the trade and infrastructure and foreign holidays etc.

I wonder how long it would take the likes of Spain for example to complain if all brits took their holidays elswhere avoiding the EU countries?? surely the travel firms could find loads of new destinations at great prices to attract the holidaymaker to try new pastures??

Manxie xx

[Suff]

May appears to be going with option 1...

[Workingman]

You really could not make this stuff up.

The PM goes to Brussels with what look like proposals to get things moving - both sides agree. The "divorce bill" looks to be about to be signed off. The rights of EU citizens looks to be almost there, even though the ECJ is still a sticking point - nothing that cannot be negotiated away. The NI border with the RoI is the only major sticking point, but the PM has a plan.

The problem with the plan is that it was not cleared with her support network in NI, the DUP, prior to her going to Brussels. During the meeting with Junker the PM has to break off negotiations and phone Arlene Foster to explain. Foster is adamant that NI will not be treated differently from the rest of the UK, either politically or economically. The end result is that no deal can be signed today and talks go on, and on, and on.

Then the Irish Premier comes out with the view that he is disappointed that the UK has ditched Brexit.

We, the UK, now have a few days to come up with a solution approved by the EU (Ireland) and the DUP. Good luck with that.

The DUP is now holding all the face cards. It could, if it does not get a deal it is happy with, bring the government down. Remember the EU withdrawal Bill is currently going through parliament.

If I was a conspiracy theorist I would be thinking that May wants the DUP to bring the government down. The Tories would then lose the general election and be free of the shackles of Brexit and be able to pass the baton on to Labour.

[TheOstrich]

It's important for stability's sake that we come to a fair agreement over the border, and I do not believe that the Republic will be a problem over the eventual arrangement, despite their past posturing, because they have to be a bit careful out there. If they bring the Brexit process down and we crash out of the EU, we'll be quickly concluding free trade agreements with Australia, NZ, USA and Canada for dairy and farm produce whilst the Irish will have WTO tariffs imposed on exports to us. 22%, I think I read somewhere. That will decimate their current economic model.

As for the DUP, bung them another £1m to keep them quiet ......

[Workingman]

I cannot disagree with you, Ossie, but what was May thinking?

She was going off to Brussels with a deal that was so momentous and unique to one part of the UK that she did not feel a need to run it past them first.

I think that indicates the arrogance of the woman combined with the thinking of politicians living in the Westminster bubble.

[Suff]

I suspect she thought that the DUP would fold if she just put them into the position of breaking the deal.....

Surprise...

I knew that they would be both pivotal and critical to the process at some point. I must admit, I do wonder how the DUP think they are going to keep a soft border AND out of the EU if the UK bang out with a Hard Brexit???

Never great planners though. Great for a good bit of spleen venting.

They have done exactly what I wanted them to do. I do wonder though, how all those Labour UKIP voters feel today, handing the reigns of power in Brexit to the DUP by voting for Corbyn and Brexit at the election rather than May and Brexit?????

The great thing from my perspective is that the EU are distanced even further from Arlene Foster and the DUP than the UK is from France and Germany. The EU has absolutely no influence with the DUP and, at some point, they are going to realise what that really means.

Let the games roll on. The EU thought they had finally managed to get May exactly where they wanted her. Only to find there is a joker in the pack. In some ways it is a pity that they really don't understand UK politics....

The Telegraph says it well...

If the game of leaking the compromise was to railroad Mrs May into signing off on the deal at her lunch with Jean-Claude Juncker, it backfired spectacularly, exposing this most carefully worded of texts to more scrutiny that it could bear.

Live by the leak, Die by the leak..

[cromwell]

The Tories would then lose the general election and be free of the shackles of Brexit and be able to pass the baton on to Labour.

So after having had Brexit led by a remainer, Theresa May, we would move on to a Brexit led by a man who has until VERY recently always been a leaver - Jeremy Corbyn.
And in Keir Starmer Labour have a shadow Brexit minister who said that he respects the referendum vote, when he clearly intends to try and reverse it.

You really could not make this stuff up.

You never said a truer word.

[Workingman]

You really could not make this stuff up.

You never said a truer word.

Until today.

If you are David Davis you can make it up as you go along.....

He told the committee some time back that he had about 57 or so impact assessments "in excruciating detail".

Then he turned up to meet Barnier in Brussels with no papers - it was all in his head.

The committee then asked to see the assessments he said "No".

Parliament had a different idea and forced him to hand over the papers.

Back he came with a heavily redacted 805 page script, which he admitted he had only read two chapters of.

Today the committee again asked him for the papers to be told they do not exist: "A quantitative economic forecast of outcome does not exist. That is not there. We have not done that. What is there is the size of the industry, the employment and so on."

Omnishamble MkII.

Davis either lied to parliament when he told it he had them "in excruciating detail" or he lied today when he said they do not exist, there is no middle ground. He should be expelled from parliament.

[Workingman]

OK I'll play.... seeing as you Brexiteers have gone AWOL or chicken.

No planning has ever been done for post Brexit Britain. That is why it is so hard to put up a convincing negotiating position to the EU- you cannot play poker when you have no cards in your hand. The UK hand.

Here, have few quotes:

"That data’s being gathered, we’ve got 50, nearly 60 sector analyses already done, we’ve got planning work going on in the customs, we’ve got planning work going on 22 other issues which are critical, 127 all told."

- David Davis to BBC Andrew Marr Show, 25 June 2017

"They are in excruciating detail."

- David Davis to Brexit Committee, 25 October 2017

"We are conducting a broad range of analysis at the macroeconomic and sectoral level to understand the impact of leaving the EU on all aspects of the UK, including the agriculture sector."

- David Davis-signed response to House of Lords Committee, 30 October 2017

A "quantitative economic forecast of outcome" does not exist, he said. "That is not there. We have not done that. What is there is the size of the industry, the employment and so on." Mr Davis also said there was no "systematic impact assessment".

"the minister said formal assessments were not needed to know that "regulatory hurdles" would have an impact, describing Brexit as a "paradigm change" of similar impact to the financial crash"

-David Davis to Brexit Committee, 6 December 2017

I like that one: 'similar impact to the financial crisis'. That was well hidden by Leave. Course if it was mentioned it would be part of Project Fear.

Hammond then pops up with this:

"Of course we have modelled and analysed a wide range of potential alternative structures between the EU and the UK, potential alternative arrangements and agreements that might be made," Mr Hammond said.

"That analysis is ongoing and will inform our negotiating position with the EU," he added.

Someone is telling porkies.

Brexit is going oh so well.

[Suff]

Sorry we cut over last weekend to be faced with shedloads of issues. I'm writing 4 changes to push through the change management system before I can head to bed on the ferry to France.