Independence on the march.

[Workingman]

Literally in Scotland, "on the table" in Wales and the Irish Unity can has not been kicked very far down the road.

Nothing much can happen before Brexit and they all agree on that, but once it is over they could act. If each holds a referendum, whether legal or infomal, and there is a good majority for independence there will not be much that Westminster can do to put Jack back in the box. We will eventually see the end of the UK.

I also imagine that the old parts will apply to join the EU. How that squares with independence is anyone's guess, but no doubt the excuses are already lined up.

[Suff]

Sounds good doesn't it.

Except.

Wales was 52.5% Leave and I doubt that many of the Remain voters would want to leave the UK just to be an even smaller cog in the EU.

Scotland was 38% Leave and, I surmise, virtually all of those were Yes voters in Indyref. Of the other 52%, more than enough of them don't want to leave the UK and the inducement of being in the EU is not, quite, going to change their minds.

In short? Not marching anywhere. Brexit changed absolutely everything and it is going to take a few decades before it sinks in.

[Workingman]

Agree.... that it is not going to happen soon.

But Jack is out of the box and doing his Zebedee impression; and the thing is that these things gather momentum.

Once Brexit is over then Westminster is going to have to put a lot of effort, a lot, into uniting the Kingdom once more. For that to happen there will have to be phenomenal political change.

Something is going to have to be done to give those of us outside the Westminster bubble more political clout. The Scots, Welsh and N. Irish always knew this and that is why they have some autonomy. Not enough, perhaps, but getting there. We English should be next.

[AliasAggers]

Never mind.

As we used to sing...… There'll Always Be An England.

[Workingman]

But what kind, Aggers.?

A Londengland, or one for all of us?

[cromwell]

I do have to smile a bit. If a country is in the EU it is hardly independent, and that is certainly what Nicola Sturgeon wants.

I read up on Ulster a bit recently and there seems to be an agreement that there may be a referendum on the re-unification of Ireland in the next decade no matter what. I think it would be a good thing but it is complicated. Not all Catholics in NI want re-unification, not all Protestants want to stay in the Union. The people in the Republic would (I guess) want re-unification as would their government, with a caveat. That caveat being - would they want to take on the financial cost of NI? Osc would know more about this than me, I think.

Plaid Cymru want independence, but Welsh nationalism doesn't seem to have taken a hold like it has in Scotland plus Wales voted narrowly to leave the EU. So not much enthusiasm there for becoming a province of the EU.

Scotland. This does cheese me off a bit. We were told the Independence referendum was a once in a generation vote - until the SNP lost it! At which point they immediately start agitating for a second vote. Where have we seen that again? This upsets me, but imo most people in England are fed up off the question of Scottish independence and certainly of Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.

If people want to vote for independence that is their right. But if so it would also be our right to say "Away you go then" and cut off all payments. Honestly, this may sound nasty but what other choice would any English government have? We would need the money to set up border controls, customs, immigration checks and it would be a very expensive business. It would be political madness for any English government to be paying money to a country which had voted to leave the Union, it would cost them at the ballot box.

[Osc]

That caveat being - would they want to take on the financial cost of NI? Osc would know more about this than me, I think.

No....well, I wouldn't want to anyway. Why should we? For example, agriculture - the latest figure I can find is that farm income in NI in 2017 received subsidies of £287 million, much of it European money - why should we have to take that hit, especially when a section of the NI population hates even the word Irish and shudders at the thought of ever being called Irish? NI has been dependent on subsidies for so long that I have no idea what they will do when Brexit happens. The (currently non-existant) NI Assembly has little respect for public money, look up Arlene Foster and the RHI inquiry.

Here in Ireland, as a country we have worked hard to pull ourselves through the last ten years and seem to be coming out the other end. We are a modern, diverse country and I don't want us to have to deal with the Unionists who are stopping NI from moving forward. I can understand why United Ireland idealists would love to see the country reunited, but I am of an age to remember the Troubles and the dreadful things done in the name of Republicanism and Unionism. One thing I do know, though, is that younger people do not remember those times. It is not as simple as having a referendum, it is a complicated situation.

[cromwell]

Thanks Osc. It certainly seems to be a tricky one.

[Workingman]

I really do not know what to think of things.

This is not a media campaign, the media is just reporting the actions of the politicians.

However, there does appear to be an element of shadowy political figures meeting in dark rooms and whispering in each other's ears. It is as though they are refining their pitch should Brexit prove to be a rough ride; and it does not sound as though they are going to allow for a long drawn out ironing of the wrinkles.

Osc, would an independent NI but in the EU be a bad thing for the Republic? The NI/Eire part of the GFA would remain. The people would still be able to have either or both passports. There would be no border controls as such and the € would be the common currency. NI would also be able to make a direct case in its own right for EU funding.

I do not know, of course, just wondering.

[Suff]

This is not a media campaign, the media is just reporting the actions of the politicians.

Political redirection. They are trying to redirect people to "their" positive so when Brexit doesn't go as anyone wanted they will be remembered for something positive.

It doesn't mean they are going to do it or even that they will try. It just gives them something other than Brexit to talk about.