Now What?

[Workingman]

I will keep this short. As a Remainer I have said all along that I did not want a second referendum. However, unless A50 can be extended / revoked, and with the logjam in parliament, it is looking like the only (partial) solution in the short term.

Regardless of any result Brexit is not going away.

As for tonight's vote it is now clear that the UK is governed by the duplicitous DUP. Had it done what it did last night the government would have fallen by one vote.

It is a sick mess.

[TheOstrich]

These votes of "No Confidence" - which Labour intends to keep calling, apparently - are a complete sideshow and a complete waste of time.

MPs will of course vote along party lines and, unless the DUP does an about-turn in the "confidence and supply" arrangement, these motions will always be defeated.

So Corbyn plays party politics whilst the big issue goes unresolved. It just demonstates how deeply pathetic Westminster and its denizens have become.

[Workingman]

Ah but..... in 1979 Thatcher used the tactic of multiple no-confidence votes to bring down Callaghan. Over time his majority withered away till he eventually lost by one vote - job done.

The difference? She had time on her side and could pick and choose the issues. Corbyn does not have that so, yes, its playing politics.

[cromwell]

If after promising to deliver Brexit the political classes refuse to deliver it, I wonder how much personal security MPs will need as they travel around the country?
They could always opt for the Norway model.
Out of the Common Agricultural policy, out of the fisheries policy and out of much of EU law.
As a compromise what's wrong with that?
Saundra I agree. Many people will not vote ever again after this shambles.

[Workingman]

Ah the Norway model. It would be a tough sell to the 'Brexit means Brexit' and 'Leave means Leave' crowds as it is as close a country can get to the EU without actually being a member.

Norway is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which gives it full access to the EU single market, guaranteeing very limited restrictions to trade with the EU. In return, Norway makes substantial contributions to the EU budget and has to follow many EU rules and laws under the CJEU, but it has no say in how those rules are formed.

It is not to 'leave' as many would define it. Even some Remainers will think that if we are that far 'in' we might as well stay the whole way in, as we are now.

[Kaz]

The worst of all worlds, in other words

[cromwell]

It is not to 'leave' as many would define it.

Well somebody is going to have to make a decision quite soon. I am no fan of the EU but when they say they are getting fed up with the UK messing them around, you can't argue.
All I do know is that if we are asked to "vote again" like Denmark in 1993 (Maastricht Treaty) or Ireland in 2009 (Lisbon Treaty) we may as well give up on democracy. Because the democracy of the mafia is no democracy at all. "Of course you can have a vote - if you vote the right way. If not vote again, and this time get it right".

If that happens the corrosive contempt for politicians will go off the scale and we will be a divided nation for the next 40 years too.

[Workingman]

Cromwell, I am no fan of a second ref, but we are at an impasse with no apparent solution.... not even a hint of compromise.

No-deal, May's Deal, CETA+, Norway, the Swiss model and Remain all have their own red lines as defined by the different factions in parliament and with the public.

For me the only way out of the mess is to stop and then start again. Others, quite rightly, have different views.

We will not revoke A50, apparently, so a second ref looks like the only way to get some clarity. I hate the idea, but I reluctantly accept it as a possible way to break the logjam and move a baby step forward.

[Suff]

Actually, right now, it is all pretty clear. Go with the EU deal (it is most certainly NOT May's deal but the deal the EU put on the table for May to put to the parliament of the UK), or leave with No Deal.

Those are the current viable options. Everything else is a version of the aspirations of people who have no say in the process and cant make a blind bit of difference.

Tomorrow we should hear what May proposes as the Plan B alternative to the EU deal. Then we will have another viable option, should the parliament choose to approve it and, critically, should the EU approve it. This is vital as the EU has stated that it is "The Deal" (the EU deal), or No Deal. Nobody can offer a deal that the EU has not sanctioned. With the possible exception of revoking the A50 notification of intent to leave. Which May has said she will never do.

Current logic says a second referendum will take 22 weeks to organise and run. In fact it will take much more than the 9 weeks (or so) remaining in A50. Therefore a second referendum, without revoking A50, is impossible.

Equally, bringing the government down with a vote of no confidence will, under the fixed term parliaments act, trigger a two week search for the opposition to create a coalition to government. Something which can't happen as they cant get the votes. Therefore it would trigger an election. There is no longer enough time for a GE before March 29th as there would be a mandatory time for candidates to register to stand. In this case the government would be caretaker and, essentially, unable to revoke A50 as they would not be empowered to do so.

For me there are four possible scenario's which will play out. Here are the first possible three

1. We leave with No Deal as the EU keep on trying to force the UK to accept "The Deal" A La Greece, totally misreading the UK and wind up with No Deal.
2. May is deposed, the leadership competition closes in a month and the new PM goes to the EU with a demand of change or face No Deal
3. May is deposed, the leadership competition closes in a month and the new PM plays for time by revoking the A50 notification

Those, I see, as the only true viable options in front of us today.

How it will play out? Anybody's guess, but May would much rather go No Deal than renege on the vote of the people. No Deal is survivable. Anything else, other than a viable deal, is not.

As for the DUP? They were totally clear from the outset. Confidence and Supply, contingent on the Tories ensuring that NI is not sold down the river in any deal with the EU.

The DUP, here, are the only MP's who have lived up, totally, to the expectations of their voters and the letter of the word of their deal. Something to think about in these long winter nights.

What is my fourth possibility?

May produces a Plan B which the DUP can't stand behind. She spends 1 month preparing it for passage through the commons. When it comes to a vote she makes it a vote of confidence, the DUP vote it down and the government falls. The next two weeks are spent searching for a new government which fails. At the same time the Tory Party begin a leadership challenge after May steps down, fulfilling her promise not to fight the next election. As the government has fallen and there is only a caretaker government in power, nobody will raise a bill to revoke A50 notification and the whole process of the GE times out Brexit and we leave without a deal because there is nobody for the EU to try and do a panic 11th hour deal with. The new winner of the election comes in and feels totally un-bound by any promises the outgoing Tory government made. Meanwhile the UK bangs out of the EU, all treaties cease to exist and we have no functioning government to enact the emergency legislation or emergency trade agreements to resolve the mayhem of crashing out of the EU unprepared.

You think things are bad now, they can go to a whole new level of bad if the EU and the parliament don't wise up and start working for a viable and reasonable solution to leaving the EU.

One final thought to take away. Even if we asked for an extension to A50 and even if the EU 27 were inclined to agree, it would not extend beyond May. Why May? Because the next EU elections are in May and nobody wants the UK to be involved unless the UK has decided not to leave. Just another clock ticking away that almost nobody is talking about. Yet.

[Workingman]

I have been watching many political programmes over the past few days and it is perfectly clear that not one politician will or can answer a simple question. They all, every one, obfuscates at every turn. There is a soundbite or deflection for every question asked. The end result is that we learn nothing.

It has got to the point where I would like an interviewer to say something like: "I have now asked you three times and every time you have refused to answer, please leave the studio. Bring on he next one..."

Suff, your post is full of the disasters awaiting us because of Brexit, yet they are all down to, wait for it, the EU, though I thought it was the UK that voted to leave by 52:48. Then it's parliament fault, and they all end up with some sort of no-deal. None of them have anything to do with Cameron or May, do they, and your support for the DUP is off the wall.

The DUP is totally against any deal that treats NI differently form the rest of the UK - the backstop - but it is also against a no-deal and a hard border in Ireland. The Tories are about to deliver one or the other so logic dictates that confidence and supply has to end at some point. To not do so is duplicitous, as I said the other day.

The only real way out of this mess is to revoke A50. You once said that it could not be done, yet in your third scenario and fourth possibility you now accept that it can. Whether it needs primary legislation is not clear. There are some experts for and some against. However, if it was to be put to parliament it would sail through both Houses unopposed. You also say that to do so would give us time. That is what I have been saying for many moons but have always had it thrown back in my face, so thanks.

The big problem is that although there might still be a majority to leave the EU there is not a majority for no-deal. Something has to give, but nobody knows what that is. Maybe that is why when MPs are interviewed they do not actually say anything.