by Suff » 14 Jan 2021, 11:06
There won't be enough Republicans in the senate who will turn against the party to make the impeachment stick. That's my take.
When all is said and done, the Republicans could not survive the loss of support that impeachment of their President would create. It is one thing being outvoted, it is entirely another voting to impeach your own president.
Because 1/3 of the senate is re-elected every 2 years, only those elected in November could withstand the backlash of turning on Trump and not all of them will be inclined anyway.
I don't see it succeeding. But even trying again, so close to the inauguration, will have caused a level of simmering anger which will not be over by 2022; when the house and 1/3 of the senate are up for election again.
Most non Americans don't understand just how close the political system is to the electorate and how accountable those politicians are. In most countries with 4/5 year parliamentary lifetimes, it is possible to do things in the first 1/2 years which will be out of the minds of the public come the next election. In the US there is literally no 2 year period where a large swathe of the politicians are not being held accountable at the polls.
If I were interested enough, I could take a list of Republican house members who voted to impeach trump and track their success rate at the 2022 election. But I'm sure someone else will do that. It makes you wonder if the US is finally willing to break out of two party politics? The other two parties are so small as to be virtually insignificant at elections. Trump created a whole genre of slogans which had solid backing. America First being one of them. It will be of minor interest to see if the Trump supporters can bridge the gap and move to a separate political party.
There are 10 types of people in the world:
Those who understand Binary and those who do not.