Lockdown???

[saundra]

Will Boris hold his nerve and still give us lockdown on June 21
Or should we all join a revolution and protest
It certainly can't go on forever

[Workingman]

In fairness to the government June 21st was always the "earliest" date to end all lockdown restrictions. It was always open to being amended.

I personally believe that we will get most of what we expected but with a few things kept in place for a while longer and maybe only in some places. The latest news that the North West is to get extra help and support enforces that belief.

[cromwell]

Boris should hold his nerve

There is no justification for extending lockdown going on hospital admissions and deaths.
But he will be under immense pressure for "just another two weeks" (yeah,right) from the usual suspects - Gove, Hancock, SAGE and the media, and he'll probably fold - again.
And then in two weeks time there will be another excuse.
Some of the government advisers are far left elitists like the communist Susan Michie.
People like that like control
Imo they would like this to go on forever.

[miasmum]

Absolutely I would like to see the figures for pre 2020 flu seasons? I bet there were far more cases, far more hospitalisation and far more deaths than this stage of the pandemic. Should we all start to prepare to shut down for that too?

[saundra]

I expect a lot less bother with that as well MM

[Suff]

Mm, look up the 99/2000 flu epidemic. All the numbers you need.

The key here is messaging.

"Stay home protect the NHS".
"Hospital admissions are flat with the Indian variant"

So the noise coming out of the government matches the end of lockdown. Whether they will live up to it is an entirely different question.

As WM says. The 21st was a very best case date backed by data. The question is whether these data show that the Indian variant still fits within the very best case.

If it does not, then we should expect a new date at which point the impact of this variant is nullified.

[Workingman]

Having had both doses I am torn with this.

There are nearly 77% of adults who have had the first dose, and almost 54% with both. This time next week it will be 80% - 57%, so we are nearly there. However, there are slight rises in admissions and deaths, though nowhere near the exponential growth claimed by the media and some experts. Still, reasons to be cautious.

Next week, the 14th, is the date when the data will be reviewed. Only then will we really know where things might be heading.

I want the lockdown to end, sure I do, but I do not want us to jump the gun. For that reason I have prepared myself for the disappointment of a slight delay with some parts of the easing. Not for long, though, it will have to end this summer or I fear that we will get civil disobedience.

[Suff]

I think you are right WM. Both on the disappointment and the potential for civil disobedience.

The numbers are going up. As you would expect when a few thousand people jetted off to a hotspot to become, mainly, infected, then to pass it on. That being said, the numbers are not showing the same growth seen before when we opened up. Therefore we know the vaccines work.

The main question is whether the numbers will start dropping again. If they do we know that not only do the vaccines work, but that herd immunity is kicking in and we are starting to see some real protection to the main population of the UK.

Then we have to work out whether our government grows a pair or not.

I know that both you and I said that there was no point in the last lockdown only to screw it up at the last hurdle. That remains the same. But the barrier to screwing it up has raised, massively. Something to watch out for.

[TheOstrich]

I haven't seen today's figures yet, but as we know, daily cases have rocketed spectacularly during the last week. Given that the gestation period for the bug (from what we know of it) is around 7-14 days, and potential hospital admissions follow 7-14 days after that, I think it's too early to say that this third wave will not give rise to serious cases and hospital cases a month down the line. Basically, let's see what happens to the daily cases next week - is there still massive growth? - and then where we are a fortnight on with hospitalisations - have the vaccinations broken the link with death?.

A fortnight on, by coincidence, is actually June 21st. A prudent decision would, to my mind, be to roll on the restrictions until July 7th or so.

I know that's not going to be a popular view on this forum (or any forum, for that matter ), but it's what I'd do. And if they do decide to delay the easing of restrictions, please don't shoot the messenger .....

[Suff]

new cases 6049
New deaths 13
Active cases 121,195
Serious/Critical 148

Yesterday
5683
1
117454
134

If you look at that closely, that means that the number of active cases only grew by 3,741 for an increase in new cases of 6,049. Of course there could be delays in the numbers and it could all iron out in the next few weeks. Unless it suddenly jumps to 12,000 new cases per day there will be cautious moves to assume it is under control.