Has the Indian variant peaked?

[Suff]

We will find out in a few days. Yesterday new cases were 7,540. Today they were 7,393. Numbers rise until Friday and then drop off again over the weekend. So they should be rising. Deaths at 7, +1 on yesterday. Again the number of active cases rise, but some 2,000 or so less than the number of new cases. Meaning existing active cases are falling faster than new cases are arriving.

By Sunday the numbers could be entirely different. Time will tell. If they are reading the tea leaves mid next week, the numbers could very well stack up to R0.8 or less.

[Workingman]

Monday the 14th is the review date, the only date with data that matters. Everything else in the media is just conjecture and guesswork.

[Kaz]

I am far less interested in case numbers than hospital admissions. Surely those are far more pertinent?

[TheOstrich]

I see the Daily Mail picked out Cheltenham as one of the areas where the virus is spiking, Kaz.
What are they saying locally - is it the Indian varient?

[Suff]

They are extremely low. Serious cases (hospital admissions), have gone up by about 25 in a week. The problem is that the numbers were so low to begin with that this is around a 20% growth.

On Monday the trend will be lower I guess. If it has peaked.

[cromwell]

Oh Suff, Suff.
There you go again, using logic and evidence.
The policy has already been decided - lockdown.
So the only evidence that will be considered is the evidence that may support lockdown - positive tests.
Deaths won't be considered because there are hardly any deaths from Covid any more. Overall numbers in Hospital will not be quoted because out of a population of 66 million there are less than 1,000 in hospital with Covid.Hospital admissions may be quoted but only in the few areas where they are rising. The number of patients discharged won't be mentioned at all.

[Workingman]

The policy has already been decided - lockdown.

But it hasn't.

We are now in a limbo lockdown, a part pregnant lockdown, a lockdown 'Lite'.

Things will ease soon. The data will say "we can do this, this and this, but we can't do this, this and that'. It might not be the full "Freedom day on the 21st" the media constantly promotes, but it will happen at some time.

What is certain is that we will never, ever, go into a proper lockdown... we haven't done it yet and we are unlikely to try it any time soon.

[Workingman]

It pisses me off that we use words such as "quarantine" and "lockdown" so freely.

Quarantine comes from middle age Italy and the plague. Ships were held offshore for forty days and nights to make sure that they were plague free - nobody on, nobody off. If you died, hard lines, if you survived, welcome home.

Lockdowns were used to control Smallpox. Areas and villages were sealed off - forcibly. Teams went in and vaccinated everybody - no exceptions. You got the jab or you died - no human rights excuses in those days.

Us? We have been told to wash our hands, keep 2m apart, wear masks and not hug friends and family and we are falling to bits because of it. Pathetic.

[Kaz]

I see the Daily Mail picked out Cheltenham as one of the areas where the virus is spiking, Kaz.
What are they saying locally - is it the Indian varient?

I thought Gloucester had the highest rates around here, at just under the national rate of 46 or 47? I'll have to look it up. What I do know is that GRH has very few Covid cases with only one in ICU. It's probe the variant, but I'll look that up too >>>>>

[Kaz]

"Gloucester has highest Covid-19 case rate in the South West - as infections soar in two areas - Gloucestershire Live" https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/n ... se-5510141

Great, I live in Longlevens and D is in Kingsholm No mention of which variant, but I know the Indian variant was around in the Forest recently