The Australian trade deal

[Suff]

Is a long way from being a detailed and signed treaty, but it appears that our leaders have managed to get over the worst sticking points.

The usual knee jerk response on farming has been in the press, but zero analysis.

As has already been seen, EU meat products entering the UK are starting to come under increasing pressure as interim agreements start to expire. The biggest impact to to the status quo is likely to be an import switch from EU suppliers to Australian. Also, possibly, a drop in Brazilian imports in favour of Oz.

However there is another dynamic which is completely ignored.

Once this deal is penned, a deal with NZ is far more likely. Once we have a deal with both Oz and NZ, we will have deals with enough CPTPP members to gain entrance.

Which is all very good and a long way away, except for the fact that Biden is determined to undo almost everything Trump did. One of the things Trump did was to pull the US out of TPP.

If the timing is right and the UK enters CPTPP; when the US joins, they will find themselves in a trade deal with the UK and the UK will be part of the largest trading bloc in the world.

A deduction our press is unwilling to even try to make.

[Workingman]

So ... "Bad deals are better than no deals". It has taken a while to sink in but I think I am getting the idea.

Say "Cheese", we have loads of it now that sales to the EU are down 72%. I am not a fan of Wensleydale but Wallace loves it and Gromit is quite partial to a bit of Stilton.

Cheesers: Rejoice!

Wonder what the Aussies like - a Cornish yarg, a Hereford hop or maybe a Lincolnshire Poacher. They are all protected so the Aussies can't make their own.

[Suff]

In a way all trade deals are bad deals because they restrict areas of trade and only allow trade in common interest. Of course what is in common is debatable. Some deals are significantly worse than others, however.

Again the whole "no deal is better than a bad deal" is a bit of a moot point when a member of the WTO (founder member that is). Because unless the other side is not in the WTO, there is no such thing as no deal, there is just a reversion to WTO rules as a foundation.

As I said, for me, the Oz and, sure to follow, NZ deals are not, of themselves the prime driver. The target is CPTPP and the US by the back door (should they choose to re-join).

As for sales to the EU being down 72%, sales to everywhere are down right now. Yes we are exporting less to the EU in general, however that is a procedural thing which will sort itself over time. It won't go back to in EU levels but, then again, that was not the trend anyway. Even in the EU our trend was to trade outside it. That will only accelerate now.

I expect more trade deal news to roll in over the coming year. It is unlikely that any truly momentous will happen before the pandemic ends.

[Workingman]

I say again "Bad deals are better than no deals". It has taken a while to sink in but I think I am getting the idea.

Never mind, blame it on the Asteroid, blame it on Titanic iceberg, blame it on the pandemic or blame it on the Boogie.

BTW we were already in a Mutual Recognition Agreement with Australia as a member of the EU which was MASSIVELY in our favour - total trade in goods accounted for €36 billion in 2019 (EU surplus of €24bn), plus another €26 billion for services (EU surplus €10bn), and €16.25bn of that surplus was OURS - almost half!

We have rolled over 66 EU deals since leaving the EU, and at £3,4bn the Switzerland deal is the biggest, and it is almost in the EU.

What has happened to the bigger 'oven ready' deals with the RoW? Did someone forget to turn the gas on? They were supposed to be up and running from day one, or was that a lie? I expect deflection.

[Suff]

Well it's a way of viewing it.

As for oven ready on day1? It was possible but our government never really wanted to rock the boat to do it. There were quite a few deals ready to be signed off by Day1 but all things take time.

I see an interesting point about the Oz trade, If most of the surplus with Oz is ours and we are opening our doors to Oz, why shouldn't we take the rest of the EU business with them and take Oz trade instead of EU trade in return? In the short term trade volume will not change radically, so better if more of it comes to the UK.

Time will tell.

[Workingman]

Me: "I expect deflection." and so it came.

There were quite a few deals ready to be signed off by Day1 but all things take time

.
Bless. Day 1 is day 1: a deadline; otherwise it's whenever. Day 926 is not day 1. It's quite simple really. Gove's and Fox's quotes on the matter of post Brexit deals are well documented and recorded - go look them up. Fools, Gammons and various other idiots were persuaded by them and voted accordingly. They all now have to take ownership for those 'deals'. Don't you?

Our roll-over trade deals are about £35.2bn (9%) with nearly 1/3 of the World's countries - former EU deals. The EU has other deals that we have not rolled over. The other 91% are with those who we have, or hope to have, independent deals with, including the major economies / blocs, of which we have few or none; any we do have are not to our great benefit. And who have we put in charge of negotiating these super-dooper deals: the ultra-featherweight Liz Truss?

God help us!

[Suff]

They all now have to take ownership for those 'deals'. Don't you?

Well my position from the beginning was that it would take a decade to fully emerge from the decision and that things would be up and down during that decade.

I've never changed that position.

The major blockage to signing trade deals came when Parliament tried to derail Brexit by blocking an exit agreement and then it took forever to agree the interim deal we do have with the EU. You can hardly blame other countries for refusing to engage when they had no idea what the UK would tie itself up to with the EU. No point in even agreeing a text if significant portions of it become invalid before it can even be signed.

We could have had deals ready to go, countries were willing to negotiate with us, but the situation in the UK was such that no deal would have been worth the paper it was written on until the situation with the EU was settled. As soon as that was settled the negotiations began in earnest.

We may not have rolled over all of the deals, but we have rolled over a very large % of the monetary value of them. For the rest we are on WTO rules as we complete negotiation. For instance Japan was not a roll over, we agreed a more comprehensive deal.

I'm looking way down the road, not at the potholes right under my feet.

[Workingman]

What pot holes?

We were sold newly laid, speed limit free and pristine Tarmac with no humps, bumps, sleeping policemen or chicanes. My, how the message has changed since you lying hypocrites won.

Day 1 has now become day whenever, perhaps, or some time in the future. Nigel looks to have emigrated. David is lobbying from his garden shed and Tim wants to open the borders to get staff in to serve his Gammons.

Where are the mermaids, unicorns and sunlit uplands we were promised from Day 1? Somewhere over the rainbow?

You would not have been telling 'Bunter style' porkies would you? Oh, but you were, and you are being found out. 'Project Truth' is calling...

"Aaron, open the box, we need another spin... and quick!. Aaron!!!"

[Suff]

What pot holes?

We were sold newly laid, speed limit free and pristine Tarmac with no humps, bumps, sleeping policemen or chicanes. My, how the message has changed since you lying hypocrites won.

Day 1 has now become day whenever, perhaps, or some time in the future. Nigel looks to have emigrated. David is lobbying from his garden shed and Tim wants to open the borders to get staff in to serve his Gammons.

Where are the mermaids, unicorns and sunlit uplands we were promised from Day 1? Somewhere over the rainbow?

You would not have been telling 'Bunter style' porkies would you? Oh, but you were, and you are being found out. 'Project Truth' is calling...

"Aaron, open the box, we need another spin... and quick!. Aaron!!!"

I didn't sell anything of the sort. I sold worthwhile pain which would take a decade to get over.

What others sold? Well if you believe a politician or a broadsheet, without back checking, not my issue.

Anyway, we are where we are and I prefer to look to the opportunities we now have rather than what we left behind.

[Workingman]

Well if you believe a politician or a broadsheet, without back checking, not my issue.

So that's you absolved, what about the other 52%? The 48% who did check were accused of running Project Fear and nicknamed Remoaners. Don't ever think that we will forgive and forget. We will "Remain" in your consciences so best you all get used to it.