Here we go again

[Suff]

Right so let me get this straight.

You will not stop wearing a mask until the rest of the world is vaccinated? And not even then if you think there is "any" risk?

Whilst doing this you expect everyone who does not make this choice to keep away from you and "your" space. Have you looked at the vaccinations tracker form the NYT? You'll be in that mask till 2025.

Since the third wave began, around May 22nd, up until June 25th (last data in the government daily deaths sheet), 273,624 people have been infected and 427 have died. Of those who were infected, the majority were not vaccinated. Of those who were single vaccinated, a very small amount were hospitalised. Of those who were double vaccinated, we are in single figures, because the press were _very_ keen to tell us as soon as it happened.

So double vaccinated and wearing a mask, carrying out hand hygiene and keeping away from others, presents virtually Zero risk. Not wearing a mask and not carrying out hand hygiene presents a _very_ small risk.

How many people died in the UK in that same period since the third wave began? 45,759. 45,332 more than died of Covid. You've got more chance of being run down by a bus if you are double vaccinated. It is not quite as low as being gored to death by a cow, but it is getting there.


Then you expect everyone to be as scared as you are? Somehow I don't think so. But you expect them to act exactly the way you do. This government has decided that it is now up to people to take care of themselves. Because these data do not warrant this level of interference in our lives. Yes, they may see a rise as Israel has done. They may even go back to masks. Or not. But Israel is exactly the same as the UK. Growing cases, hospital admissions virtually flat. People are not dying at home of Covid, they die in hospitals. If they are not going to hospital, they are not dying.

Weekly deaths England and Wales
Government Covid stats, downloadable in CSV format.

[Workingman]

No, wrong.

I will continue to wear a mask in enclosed and crowded places *in this country* until the risk to me is substantially reduced. At the moment that is not the case. The rest of the world is of little concern because the local rules mean that I cannot go there.

As for deaths.... last time I looked being run over by a bus or getting cancer, heart attacks and so on were not contagious. And, sadly, we lose those people every year regardless of Covid. Straw man argument.

I am not scared, just sensible. Wearing a mask and keeping my distance are not restricting me, or you, in any way more than, say, wearing a seatbelt or an oven glove - I do both because I am not an idiot. Get a grip!

[TheOstrich]

Whilst doing this you expect everyone who does not make this choice to keep away from you and "your" space.

No, I will be keeping away from them and "their" space. Subtle difference.

Then you expect everyone to be as scared as you are?

It's not a question of being scared. It's a question of doing what you consider to be right by yourself and by other people. Personally, I'm getting increasingly unconvinced of the efficacy of the vaccine jab. If they're so fantastic, and if

more than 45 million people - about 86% of all UK adults - have now received a first dose of a vaccine and more than 34 million people, or more than 64% of all adults, have had a second.

then why are cases continuing to rise so sharply?

Suff, a majority of folk in this country, as opinion polls consistently show, currently intend to continue to wear masks voluntarily.
https://www.newarkadvertiser.co.uk/news ... 9-9206252/
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/71-think-mas ... poll-says/
https://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/194 ... k-july-19/
https://www.ross-shirejournal.co.uk/new ... ds-243637/

I've only found one poll where the majority would ditch masks - Oxford.

I was up at the local building society this morning and the cashier asked me conversationally if I intended to continue wearing a mask. I said "yes, what about you?" She said "yes - and so have the vast majority of people I've asked that question". I said "long term? The new norm?" She concurred with me.

I'll continue to wear a mask, continue to socially distance, and maintain hand sanitation in shops in order to protect myself and to protect others. If people want to get into my space, or challenge me for wearing a mask, frankly that tells you more about those people than it does about me. I have no intention of criticising people who have dispensed with masks because, I've said before, it's now to be personal choice, and I would expect / hope anti-maskers would adopt the same tolerance. If not, they really need to get over themselves.

At the end of the day, as Michael Conrad would say:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jmg86CRBBtw
What's wrong with that?

[Workingman]

+1.

[Suff]

You get me wrong about this. I won't get in anyone's face about wearing a mask, I will not deliberately get close to them and I will not intrude on a socially distanced space.

I will, however, be extremely irked at people who by look, gesture, or word, denigrate my right to not wear a mask when it becomes legal to do so.

What you don't see is the job that has been done on the people. When #1 son and his wife arrived in France last year in the summer we went to the local market. Virtually nobody was wearing a mask, me and Mrs S included. #1 son was highly critical, constantly carped on about it. But. By the end of the holiday he, like us, was only wearing a mask where it was mandatory.

As to the part about doubting the effectiveness of the vaccine? The numbers are there, I linked them above and the government maintain them. OK we are not yet long enough in Wave 3 to fully calculate the impact but let me give you some numbers.

01-13 Jan inclusive, 672,277 cases
Following 28 days, 14/01 to 10/02, 34,300 deaths.

That is a 5.1% death to cases rate. And this is on the Kent variant, less infectious etc...

27 May to 09 June, 73,513 cases.
Following 28 days , 10/06 to 07/07, 456 deaths. (I had to update the government stats, the last day on the sheet is wrong).

That is a 0.62% death to case rate. This is on the Indian Delta variant. More infectious.

Granted there is a difference. Jan was at the height of Wave 2 so we should expect some deaths earlier than 28 days. So let's look at the number of cases in the next 28 days for Wave 2 and for wave 3.

Wave 2 for the following 28 days 683,694
Wave 3 for the following 28 days 497,619

For the dates specified, there has been a drop in deaths to cases of 98.8%. We can run this again in a month, but the figure is highly unlikely to rise too much. There simply are not enough people on the serious or critical list. Today it stands at 417 and it is going up by around 30 to 40 per day. It is impossible for us to see the levels of deaths, seen in Wave 2, in this wave, without those serious/critical cases going through the roof; they are not.

So would you like to revise your suspicion about the vaccines not working? They are, in fact, fuelled by the same culprits as last time. The 'spurts and the histrionic press.

Given that the vast majority of people being infected in the 3rd wave are unvaccinated, I would say that the vaccines are as close to 100% effective as we are ever likely to see; for reducing serious infections or deaths.

[cromwell]

You get me wrong about this. I won't get in anyone's face about wearing a mask, I will not deliberately get close to them and I will not intrude on a socially distanced space.

Me neither.
Plus I will continue to hand wash and only go to supermarkets when I believe they are likely to be quiet. But I do that anyway; and I don't rule out wearing a mask if we get a bad flu outbreak in winter, etc.

But when I see people walking around with a mask on in beautiful weather with no one within 100 yards of them, I just wonder why?
The vaccines work. Cases are supposedly skyrocketing, deaths and hospital admissions are just ticking up. Right now you are as safe as you ever will be.

[TheOstrich]

Well, it looks like Covid Passports are back in the frame for pubs, clubs and restaurants from this Autumn.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... y-21019049

That'll be another swathe of business lost to the hospitality industry from folk like me who frankly can't be assed with the bureaucracy of it all. We'd more or less made out minds up that we wouldn't go eating out again anyway - this just confirms our decision.

[cromwell]

Well, it looks like Covid Passports are back in the frame for pubs, clubs and restaurants from this Autumn.

Told you.
They won't let this go unless they are forced to. Covid passports are an instrument of control, and politicians love control.
Essentially your average politician thinks that the public are stupid, vicious, racists who need to be controlled for their own good.

[Suff]

There has been a lot of back and forth on the passports.

This was not surprising when we see how the younger element have acted with the sporting events and in pubs.

This is classic Government, not wanting to be blamed for anything. By doing what they are doing they will be blamed for everything.

[Workingman]

It is overkill, sort of, but....

If the current rate of first doses and conversion to full vaccination continues then come September some 97% of those deemed to require full vaccination will have done so.

The 1.6 million or so not fully vaccinated will either be those medically exempt or ant-vaccers. They are the ones of concern but picking them out in a pub, club, cinema etc would be like plucking needles from haystacks, all day, every day - hence the passports for the rest of us.

Or, as there will be so few of them spread far and wide, we could accept that they are unlikely to be out in more than ones and twos and in only a limited number of places at any given time. They are already mixing with the generally vaccinated population anyway; in supermarkets, shops, shopping centres and so on where a passport or app is not needed. They are the most at risk so if the Darwin Awards kick in who cares?