The EV truths slowly leak out.

[Suff]

OK let me ask you a question.

Where do they fill their vehicles today? How often?

Because, in the future, they will continue to "fuel" their vehicles at "stations" and the frequency will be up to them.

Fuelling at home is about ease and convenience. Not about Must.

As for HVAC pumps? They are the size of an Air con unit and continue to get smaller. One of my Uncle's has one in his custom built double width portable home. The Tesla Model Y has one built in because it reduces the power draw of both heating and AC by 50% to 75%.

If you can fit a HVAC pump in a car, you will soon have the same as plug in replacement units for gas boilers.

Thinking these issues are a major blockage is, at best, retrograde from the first decade of the 21st century. It is not a match for the technology and capabilities of the industry as we enter the third decade of the 21st century.

[cromwell]

Can an ordinary house cater for say two or three charging points? Just asking because some houses down our street have three and four cars.
It's all very well Theresa May or Boris Johnson striking a noble pose and saying "Make it so!" but someone else actually HAS to make it so; it's easier said than done.
We are replacing something that works, that keeps people on the road, with a leap into the future. My worry is that government isn't putting a shift in to make it happen.

[Suff]

Right now one plug one car. However EV's do come with a standard 3 pin plug in. The 3 pin pulls 3kw from the mains. For most vehicles that's 10 miles range for every hour plugged in. Given the average of 19 miles per day, that's 2 hours charge time. Also most EV's and pretty much all new EV's support scheduled charging. Meaning you bring your 4 vehicles home, plug one into the 7kw charge point and the other three into a standard 3pin plug. Set the charging based on schedule and leave them. Come out in the morning and all 4 vehicles are fully charged.

Of course if you burn through, say, 90 miles one day, you want a bit more time. You won't get 90 miles on a 3kw charger unless you leave it plugged in for 10 hours. This is feasible but an extreme case.

Let's take the map below. So we are just heading home from our 90 mile drive. We know it's going to stress the home situation so let's pull into the riverside service station, or Asda kirkstall. 20 minutes at any one of these is going to do the bulk of the heavy lifting for recharge. Coming from a different direction? Morrissons, lidl, halfords. In fact, have a look. Anything with purple has 50kw. Many of the blue are 22kw. Plenty of 7kw. Even today.

Have a play with it. There are only 260,000 pure battery EV's on the road today and this build out is in its infancy.

https://www.zap-map.com/live/



The UK as a whole, just one or two.

[Workingman]

My answer:

At a filling station - empty to full in minutes - and there are plenty to choose from. For general commuting needs it can be done once every three weeks to a month.

For general commuting needs electrical charging can take from ~30 mins to hours. Apparently top-up charging is the way most do it, so that's at least once a week. Pod-Point.

8m UK households are unable to install chargers at home (CAM) and on average there are 1.3 vehicles per household - 10.4 million. That will eventually mean 1,486,000 needing topping up every day. My area, LS16, with 15.526 households - 20,184 cars - will need 2,884 top-up points, we have two!

Love that map - about 1/4 of Leeds.

It has roughly 40 charging stations, so possibly 100 charge points.... for approximately 200,000 people! And of course you will be the only person wanting a top-up charge. Look at the huge areas within it with no points at all.

The UK map is even better! The land is awash with chargers. pins everywhere, then you zoom in! Oh look, the pin size is the same but there are huge deserts, even in big cities as already noted, with not one in sight.

[Suff]

Daily charge at a 50kw charger is circa 10m daily. Around 1h once a week. Charging can be done once every 10 days, but it degrades the battery if you do it this way every time.

Charging infra is in it's infancy. Workplaces will have charging infra, supermarkets will have tens of times more charging infra and the country as a whole will have more than 1m charge outlets. I'm talking dedicated charge outlets. Even then you can choose to plug it in with a 13a plug. Seriously there are tens of "millions" of those around the country. As I have already shown, with a 13a plug it is less than 2 hours to "top up" daily.

We have less than 300,000 fully electric plug in vehicles in the country right now. Yet we have a charging infrastructure which will support more. As the vehicles grow, the charging infra will grow. There is no point in pointing at the 2021 charging infra and saying "it won't support 1.3m vehicles charging". No it won't, because we won't have 1.3m vehicles charging every day for at least another 3-5 years. So putting that infra out there would be a total and complete waste of money.

I'm sure BP, shell, Total and a host of other companies just Love your reasoning though.

[Workingman]

we won't have 1.3m vehicles charging every day for at least* another 3-5 years.

* My bold. So in 3-5 years we are going to have to jump from 42948 connectors today to..... that's some building programme. Do the maths.**

And just like in the early days of motoring when the oil companies and the motorists built the fuelling infrastructure with little or no help from the taxpayer you battery boys and girls, with help from the generating companies, will be doing the same. Of course you will - NOT!

I'm sure EDF, SSE, Scottish Power and a host of other companies just Love your thinking though. Taxpayer takes the hit - they take the profits.

** Hint: try something like 750 per day.

[Suff]

* My bold. So in 3-5 years we are going to have to jump from 42948 connectors today to..... that's some building programme. Do the maths.**

Ofgem has given the green light for energy network companies to invest in more than 200 low-carbon projects across the country over the next two years, including the installation of 1,800 new ultra-rapid car charge points for motorway service stations and a further 1,750 charge points in towns and cities.

The spending initiative, which will add 65p to customer bills for the next two years

65p. Really? What can I get for a tenner a year over 2 years. Let me see. That's 153 times the spend to get these chargers. So 276,923 ultra fast chargers (150kw or higher) and 269,230 charge points for towns and cities.

I wonder what we'd get for a tenner until 2035?

Well some analysis has been done till 2028.

Electric vehicle charging system market in Europe is estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 44.77% during the years 2021-2028.

This includes the UK. But what does that mean in numbers? Compound is great. Our 42,948 becomes 551,417.

Now let us also work out that all those petrol stations are going to see their customers decline after 2035 as there will be no new fossil burners to suck up all their fuel. So they are going to have to change their mode of working too. 2.6m vehicles a year which they won't be able to fuel unless they do something about it. No incentive there then....

Companies who provide fuel stations today will be pushing into power infrastructure in car parks, either paid for or no paid, shopping etc. Shops are already rolling out charge points. If you lose the charge point race your customers are going to go to another supermarket where they can get their car topped up whilst they shop. The next willy whanging for supermarkets is going to be the size of their charging network. Want to charge once a week, come to Asda/Lidl/Tesco/Morrisons, where you can get a 50kw charger and your car will be fully topped up by the time you have finished shopping and loaded the car up and put the trolley back.

I know it is hard to understand but the world is going to CHANGE and it is going to change habits and attitudes. Just like the Internet did. After all, supermarkets put in fuel stations out of town to suck the shoppers in and reduce one of the trips they have to make. If you think they're going to miss the opportunity to grab customers by ensuring that they can have their car topped up and ready to go, think again. Now add to that the fact that you won't do your shopping and be sat in a the baking sun with your ice cream melting, trying to fill up before you go home. Or, consider, having to do that wait before you can even get in the shop.

Nope, you'll come back to your nice cool, airconned car, which has been running the aircon whilst it charged, put your precious ice cream in the nice cool car and drive right home. Attitudes and expectations are going to change and, as always, it will be the younger generations who lead the way.

You know how this works WM. You have seen it over and over again in the IT world. Now it is happening to the infrastructure world.

It is why Tesla is pushing to get media streaming on their 17" flat screens they have in the vehicles. You can't use it whilst driving, but it gives you something to do for the 20 minutes your vehicle is tied up to the charging station. Go get a coffee, watch some youtube or a TV show, or part of one, then head home, vehicle full of "fuel".

[Workingman]

If I am still here I'll be back in 3-5 years and will bet that my version of the real world is nearer the mark, I'll get the beers in if it isn't. Us Yorkies can show the Scots a thing or two about being careful with money, so I think that my cash is safe

£300 million for 3550 charge points nationwide (£85k per pop) over the next two years is a pimple on an elephant's bum and is nowhere near what is needed. And get this: the average parking (charging) bay is 12 m2 - hectares of charging cars! A 13a plug and lead only work it you have a driveway so ain't an option for millions of us. Imagine the late night and early morning parties at the local supermarket car park as Justin and Penny, Tristram and Charlene queue for their top-ups in their jimjams - such fun!

Home charging will be for a sizeable minority, for the rest of us public charging, daily or weekly, will be a necessity not a convenience. And, car or not, we all get to pay for you battery boys and girls - fabulous! Also, the worlds of IT and private transport are not remotely comparable - apples and bananas. Straw man.

Your view is a dreamscape, as was the case with the old TV programme Tomorrow's World. Some of it will happen, but a lot of it will wither on the vine. If the NWO is to be believed we will not be going to the supermarket to shop, everything will be delivered. How does that square with your air-con parking and melt free ice cream? It's bollocks.

I can honestly see the 2030 plan being pushed back. It's a chicken and egg thing. People will not be going EV unless the infrastructure is there to support them, and the infrastructure builders will not provide the necessary if there is not the market for them to make lots of money. We are nowhere near. Certainly not 3-5 years near!

[Suff]

I would be as sceptical as you except for one thing.

Norway is already there, charging infra is self sustaining because EV purchase is the primary purchase now.

Demand drives supply and the supply side in Norway is ramping up.

Yet Norway doesn't ban FF vehicles for another 3.5 years.

As for pyjama party charging. Why? When every McD, Starbucks, Cafe Nero, Burger King and supermarket with parking, has at least 22kw charging points, there will be no need, the car will be as charged as it needs to be in the morning, ready to go.

As for the world of IT and the world of EV's being two different worlds? Only in the minds of VW, Ford and a host of other also ran's in the EV market. The true EV companies know that is not true and everyone else will understand that in the coming decades.

[Workingman]

I'll be back in 3-5 years, with my wallet full of uncollected beer tokens. See you then. Enjoy your freebies till the taxpeeps knock on your doors, coz they coming to get you to plug the gap, then you will pay. Bank on it.

I really am going to love it when you battery aerosols have to fully fund your driving.

God natt fra Norge, God elektrisk kjøring, dere idioter.

Bye for now.