The latest CPI figure for October is said to be at 3.4% and a wonk from the BoE claims that it will be over 5% by the new year.
The CPI is a notional national average based on over 720 goods and services in 12 categories, and the BoE's is based on modelling trends at today's rates.
I think they are both wrong.
The problem is that each individual or household has their own inflation rate. In the last 12 months I have only used items from seven categories. My main purchases are food, gas and electricity, petrol and cleaning products (household and personal) and a very few items of clothing.
I use a thing called Microsoft Money. From it I can extract reports based on date range, payee and category. Depending on my parameters it is telling me that my inflation is between 8% - 11%, the biggest being food. The average is 9.3%.
My bet is that many of us have inflation rates way above the official ones.