Are we going to war ....

[TheOstrich]

... against Russia? In the light of their continuing military build up, are they going to invade the Ukraine?

The US seems to be briefing that way.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ld-up.html

Or will Belarus be the flashpoint?

[Workingman]

I manned the ramparts in the 70s and 80s to protect us - it was 50:50, but we held firm and our economic power eventually won. Today is different. They have the upper hand because the capitalism they once despised is working in their favour.

There was a time when we could kill their economies, now it's their turn to hurt ours.

[cromwell]

It's always puzzled me why we haven't tried to get on better with the Russians.
I know that Putin is no bargain but from their point of view they are the ones who were invaded in the war; they have rarely invaded other countries in the way we have and the USA have.
Also from their point of view the old eastern bloc protected Russia's boundaries and now that has been eroded. The west has allegedly been supporting "modernisers" in the Ukraine against those there who support Russia.
They have spies, we have spies, they interfere in the Ukraine and so has the west.
I wish it was all simpler but it isn't. The press will say it is though.

[Workingman]

It's always puzzled me why we haven't tried to get on better with the Russians.

This.

I had hoped that with the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Iron Curtain and the collapse of the Soviet Union The West would hold out the hand of friendship and try to get along with the new Russia. But no. We were mired in the political philosophies of Reagan and Thatcher - 'We won, you lost, take that sucker'. The hawks had won and they were not about to let anyone forget.

How that must have hurt the Russian politicial classes, Gorbachev and Yeltsin and their followers in particular, and the Russian people. So, come the day, they reverted to old and voted in Putin and the old guard. A golden opportunity was missed and we are paying for it to this day.

[Suff]

In answer to the OP, unknown. Yes we can bolster and supply Ukraine from the EU borders, but the eastern side of Ukraine, with a quick look at the map, very much resembles "all roads come from Moscow". If I wanted to look, probably trains too.

Turkey is the key in this area, NATO member, location of the US nuclear stockpile for this theatre and currently not on very good terms with the rest of NATO.

If Ukraine wanted to stop a war, they just need to invite NATO to do some joint training exercises, on the Russian border. Without that, Russia may well invade. They won't go far, just enough to cut off Ukraine off from the sea. Will we go to war over that? Sanctions more likely. Do we really want their oil and gas?

[Workingman]

Shouldn't we be doing the big boy stuff with all sides sitting down over a few pints and talking, like adults, rather the sending in NATO and threatening?

"My nuclear arsenal is bigger than your nuclear arsenal". Wow!

Willy whanging is for infants and hawkish dinosaurs. The world has moved on.

[Suff]

Well a joint exercise is kind of like "you can but it might hurt". As opposed to doing nothing and letting the bully climb over the fence.

Then there are the other salient questions. Like can you believe a word that is said? Who will live up to what they say? Will one side agree then take advantage the second the back is turned?

If I recall correctly, when they broke the encryption on the radio used by the missile battery, the Russian advisers were helping the rebels shoot down the airliner and were trying to blame it on Ukraine. This is not the kind of group that you just sit down with around the table with a few beers and agree not to go to war. This is the kind of group you look at and say "come if you want, but don't expect to get home again".

There are times to sit down and talk. There are also times to stand up and be counted.

The problem is being able to work out which time is which.

[Workingman]

I know, let's tub thump and sabre rattle - that'll sort them.

"Vlad, NATO is about to start an exercisr with Ukraine.

No problem. Svetlana, Dimitri, turn off the oil and gas taps to Europe, it is winter after all. Sergei, go on TV and tell the Russian people we are doing this to protect the pipelines because NATO is using live rounds, a safety thing - it will be picked up overseas. Olga, get Joe on the phone, tell him we need to talk. If he refuses do another hypersonic missile test."

The hawks, they are such a hoot, aren't they?

How about simply talking, a conversation, no pre conditions, just a chat?

[cromwell]

We've (Europe) have played it very badly with Putin. We've been all morally superior, blamed the Russians for Brexit and for Trump being elected - and all the time Europe is extremely dependent on Russian gas to keep going.
So maybe Putin is reminding our juvenile virtue signalling politicians who the big dog is here, by turning the gas tap off?
I agree, we need to talk and quickly.
But it has always seemed to me that there are people in the West who don't want to be friends with Russia.

[Suff]

But it has always seemed to me that there are people in the West who don't want to be friends with Russia.

That's no surprise. But then again Russia has not helped itself over time. Taking investment from the west then stealing the result of that investment and pushing out the investors, all nicely legal through the Russian courts.

I have likened Russia to the US in the 1920's. Law is an issue, taxes are a bigger issue, gangsters abound and their political leadership is likely to take severe stances.

Even then, every Russian I have worked with has been a decent person who has a different view from the west. So is it surprising that they vote Putin in.

Talking is all very good. But you also need to Trust the person you are talking to and neither side, truth be told, is very trustworth. So then it comes down to force. It is no longer acceptable to just take what you want on the world stage. Or even take what you need. Something which Russia ignored in the Ukraine. Already they didn't get round the table and talk, they sent in the tanks and took. So there is no reason to suggest they may just sit down and talk it through this time.