Will we????

[Suff]

As for lockdowns or riots, my gut reaction is we could well see both.

Not unless the government goes over the top.

Sajid Javid, the health secretary, said that he was accepting the JCVI proposal. But he also told MPs “if it emerges that this variant is no more dangerous than the Delta variant, then we won’t keep measures in place for a day longer than is necessary”

These are the current measures. The government has refused to up the measures until there is evidence that it is warranted. If the numbers don't rise any more, or start to fall, the measures just enacted will start to roll back.

From the same article.

The latest update to the UK’s Covid dashboard shows the total number of cases over the past seven days up 3.7% on the previous week. There have been 42,583 cases recorded today. But deaths are down 18.4% week on week, with 35 recorded today.

[Workingman]

But he also told MPs “if it emerges that this variant is no more dangerous...."

There goes that massive word "If". It "could" go the other way, so what Javid said is no guarantee: nobody knows. However the UK has gone from two cases on the 26th to 11 today (29th).

Let's just give it the couple of weeks the SA doctor who first found it suggests. No need to panic, but let's not get too over confident in making promises that might not be delivered.

[Suff]

True, but the hysterical hype, which started the second a new variant appeared, needs to be reigned in. Hard.

It is always the same. New variant, FUD, screaming, nothing, whimper, die.

The only incredible possible scenario would be that we did NOT Have any cases of this new variant. The current measures in place only ensure that someone on a plane does not infect everyone else on the plane. There is no guarantee, nor an intention of a guarantee, that this person will not develop and transmit these symptoms once they land.

The current testing regime requires double vaccination and and a negative PCR test within 2 days of landing. Or a negative PCR test "within 3 days" plus a day 2 then day 8 test.

The only one likely to catch asymptomatic people is the last one. Given that the vaccinations have varying levels of protection against infection (circa 60% to 90%), this means that people who come in, double vaccinated, day 2 test, can easily be infected but undetected.

They are highly unlikely to die, their infection is likely to be very short and even remain undetected the whole time, unless additional testing is done. But they will spread the infection.

Right now there is Zero evidence that it will be more virulent than Delta. There is zero evidence that it is any more effective at circumventing the vaccines and having a significantly higher infection rate. I'd say up to 40% is pretty high anyway.

We will need at least 100,000 infected and a number of deaths before we can even begin to assess the impact of this new variant.

Meanwhile lateral flow tests will go for testing, vaccines will be boosted and vaccine laggards will be encouraged to get jabbed. Masks will come back mandatory for close contact situations and then it will be a waiting game.

Shrieks for closing the borders, locking the country down and a whole load of other measures need to be ignored until we truly know what we are dealing with.

Back in 2019 this flourished because nobody was looking. Now Everybody is looking to some measure. Which is why we are seeing variants so quickly.

[cromwell]

More importantly why are these and other questions not being asked of those in charge?

There are an awful lot of questions that should have been asked but haven't been.
Such as:-
Whatever happened to the irreversible path to freedom?
How many one last pushes have we had so far?
How long are vaccine passports going to be around?
Why has the country been crashed for a virus with a 99% survival rate?
What is the plan to live with Covid?
Basically, how much longer is this going on for?

Suff, that invitation is a very kind thing to do.

[Workingman]

My last point has been missed. It is not about travellers, PCR tests, isolation etc, it is about the messages from politicians. This whole thing could turn out to be Deja-vu 2020 - but worse.

On Sunday Javid said that it would be a "great" Christmas. Yesterday he gave us the soundbite that he "won't keep measures in place for a day longer than is necessary". When is that day: 19th December, 5th of January, the vernal equinox, the 12th of never? Now the Johnson is going to "throw everything" at the booster jab rollout...by the end of January.

It is dangerous waffle for the government. If things go base over apex, as they did last Christmas, we are more likely to witness civil disobedience than not. Go read a few of the BBC's HYS comments and you will see that there is a lot of very strong resistance to and disbelief in what is being said.

I was out shopping today and despite it being the law it was a rough 50:50 split of mask wearers and those with out - and in all age groups. Even shop staff were mask less.

[Suff]

Suff, that invitation is a very kind thing to do.

They have only had the house here in France for 2 years and moved here permanently last year. They were very down about the whole thing, we have a house with 5 bedrooms and only one of our daughters can make it.

They're nice people so why not? Their house is in the depths of renovations and they can stay with us over Christmas night if they want. It is no issue to us there is space enough, high speed internet, our personal sitting room will be back operational when I connect the new 8 way LNB and our Media room/Library will be functional too (I'm taking off the Two weeks before Christmas to work on completing it). We will have Satellite and Satellite recording capability in 3 rooms and two with 5.1 sound systems.

Sadly we didn't get the pellet burner installed this fall (going to cost as much as the machine and I may just do it myself), but the log burner is more than up to the task, it is just a bit chilly in the mornings when it goes out over night. I might investigate charcoal briquettes for this Christmas to keep it going over night. They do commercial deliveries for them.

[Suff]

My last point has been missed. It is not about travellers, PCR tests, isolation etc, it is about the messages from politicians. This whole thing could turn out to be Deja-vu 2020 - but worse.

Not sure about that. The 30 day trend on deaths is down. The 30 day trend on cases is up, but the 7 day trend on cases is down. So long as it remains the same, there will be no action to tighten further and there may even be a relaxation on masks again by Christmas. If the data goes south, then things will change. But they will be based on data and not on IF or MAYBE or I THINK.

There is no mileage, now, in following the fearmongers and driving into economic chaos. Simply none. If they have to do it, then it will be driven by data.

[Workingman]

I know about the data and I understand them...

But you missed what I am saying: again! Please try to comprehend what I am saying about the messaging and their effects on people... of all types.

There are, of course, the hardcore anti-maskers, anti vaxxers, anti this, that and the others: they are expected. They will not be persuaded otherwise, no matter what, as you well know.

Then there are the double jabbed, hand sanitising, social distancing mask wearers. The ones the government so often rely on for their common sense, as they have often told us so. Many of them have had enough.

They are now questioning the perceived wisdom. A lot will not get a booster, or two. They were told two jabs would issue in an irreversible loosening of restrictions, then came this weeks new rules. Now they are told to get a booster so that the new rules (restrictions) can be lifted and Christmas will be "great". Then they are told that the jabs they already have might be less effective with the new variant and wonder if the booster (for the old variant) is the answer. Many will not get it till the end of January, anyway, so where that leaves Christmas is a mystery. They ask if a mask is worth it if nobody else is bothering and the law cannot be enforced. They ask what is the point of social distancing if people can meet in crowded pubs, clubs, cinemas and sports crowds in the tens of thousands. They are reasonable questions to ask.

They have gone from support to questioning. Their confidence in any government strategy has evaporated. They are looking at Christmas 2021 and seeing a repeat of Christmas 2020. If the government loses them, and it is looking likely that many will not cooperate in future, then it and us are in deep trouble.

[cromwell]

Then there are the double jabbed, hand sanitising, social distancing mask wearers. The ones the government so often rely on for their common sense, as they have often told us so. Many of them have had enough.

They are now questioning the perceived wisdom.

Exactly this.
You can't lie repeatedly to people and expect them to keep believing in you; some people may have the short term memory of a goldfish but others remember the various promises made and exhortations given.

"Two weeks to flatten the curve" March 2020
"An irreversible pathway to freedom" Feb 2021 (and other occasions)
"One last heave" June 2021.

And there are many, many more.
My point has always been - if people have had enough, if they are no longer believing what they are being told, can you blame them?
People in the main aren't actually stupid, even if we are treated as though we are.

[Workingman]

I have woken this morning to conflicting pieces of advice from different quarters.

On Monday there was a meeting of SAGE where it is claimed in the minutes that: "The impact of the Omicron variant on the UK is "highly uncertain" but may require a "very stringent response" because there is a "potentially significant" wave of infections while data on the variant is collected and analysed.

The above flies in the face of what Javid said on Tuesday: "There is no need to call off Christmas parties despite the emergence of the Omicron variant", (he had the above information from SAGE).

And earlier the UK Health Security Agency head, Dr Jenny Harries, said people should get their booster jab but also suggested they should not socialise "when we don't particularly need to".

Then, During a Downing Street news conference, also on Tuesday, the Johnson urged people to get a jab and suggested there was no reason that companies should be considering cancelling their annual staff Christmas parties.

Mixed massaging par excellence. They cannot all be right. Only time will tell.