A vote of "no confidence".

[Suff]

Interestingly tests have gone up by more than 50% on the tests we were doing at the start of December.

This, of course, would have absolutely no impact on the number of detected cases.

[cromwell]

According to the Sun website one of the reasons for a rise in Omicron cases was a re-definition of what is an Omicron case.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/1704944 ... k-omicron/

And in the Mail we discover that 25% of "Covid" cases in hospital are actually being treated for other causes, including road accidents.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... y-QUA.html

Someone is fiddling the figures.

[Workingman]

Interestingly tests have gone up by more than 50% on the tests we were doing at the start of December.

No they haven't.

Tests. Range from 1st Dec - 1,185,577 to 14th Dec - 1,319,891. Lowest - 1,012,792 on the the 11th Dec. Highest - 1.326,438 on the 9th Dec.
Tests daily average for the period - 1,160,855
Cases daily average to the 15th Dec - 52,874
Hospitalisations daily average to the 11th Dec - 826
Deaths daily average to the 15th Dec - 102

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Cromwell, I don't get what the Sun is suggesting. Omicron (B.1.1.529) was defined by WHO on the 28th of November. One of the markers was the SGFT gene described as S gene dropout. This was observed by PCR tests. Unfortunately not all UK PCR testing labs were, initially, able to detect this. That issue was identified about a week ago but has since been resolved. It takes about four days for the gene sequencing to be done so some tests will have been upgraded to omicron due to ongoing sequencing.

When it comes to the Mail's reporting of hospital cases a change was made back in May. The total number was split into those being primarily treated for Covid and one for all beds where a patient had Covid plus, whatever. The latter is the version we have always had presented to us. Focussing in on Covid only patients simply gives us a more granular vision of what is going on. Both sets of patients are being treated for Covid in the long run. You might have broken ankle and also have Covid and if that were me I would like both being treated and recorded at the same time.

We are still too early to make any conclusions, but we don't need to fiddle the figures to produce one.

[Suff]

Tests over the two days went up by 1.5m roughly. Note 1.5m is not in that list. Happy to keep watching though.

As for reporting people in hospital for treatment who have covid, as people in hospital For covid, that is twisting the figures.

The real number, causing stress on the system, is the number of people who Need to be in hospital For covid as a Primary case.

Reporting people who have to be in hospital for something else, who happen to have covid, but who have no need to BE in hospital for covid is twisting and inflating the figures.

[Workingman]

Tests over the two days went up by 1.5m roughly. Note 1.5m is not in that list

You have a link for your claim? I cannot find that figure on the ONS, UKHSA, the Dashboard, worldometers or gov.uk. Thanks.

A word to the wise, how I love that patronising phrase, I was actually agreeing with Cromwell. The words from the Sun were deliberately oblique.

However, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said the figure was higher partly because the definition of an Omicron case had changed, and some cases from Tuesday had been added onto today's total.

No context or background or explanations. It was a hint, and one that many people would have taken on board, that the figures were being manipulated for nefarious reasons when the fact they were modified due to better technology and understanding is totally ignored.

Same with the Mail.

NHS is urged to STOP counting thousands of Covid 'patients' who are actually being treated for other illnesses: Data shows a QUARTER of infected Brits in hospital were admitted for different conditions such as road accidents.

Yes, as has always been the case, but let's just throw it out there with CapsLock on for some words and with a colourful graph because you should all know that you are being hoodwinked. We will not tell you why the figures are what they are because our headline and graph say it all. Let's just forget that the person who had the fall also has Covid and is being treated for it in conjunction with their other injuries.

Maybe hospitals should forget the Covid because that is not what the patient originally presented with. They did not need to BE there FOR Covid therefore they do not have Covid. Is that it?

They are both the media doom and gloom and spin that are driving us all mad.

BTW I have just watched the whole of Chris Witty's evidence to the select committee. He was very measured, positive and clear in what he was saying, but then again he had the freedom to speak as he saw things. It was a totally different performance to yesterday's No10 news conference where he was obviously uncomfortable in not being able to speak his own words.

[cromwell]

Well here's some stats that aren't being peddled by Cheerful Charlie Whitty and his team of funsters.

From the Spectator today.

"There were two takeaways from last night’s press conference: firstly, the hard data showing that the number of recorded cases of Covid had surged by 19,000 – or 28 per cent – in a single day. Second was the assertion that, as a result, the NHS is in danger of being overwhelmed. What was lacking was the hard data on hospitalisations and the number of people in hospital. Although you would never have guessed from the tone of the conference, these both fell. The number of people admitted to hospital – a figure which runs a few days in arrears owing to a delay in the four constituent nations of the UK collating their data – fell from 800 to 774, the lowest figure recorded in a week. The number of people in hospital – which is for 14 December – also fell slightly, from 7,687 to 7,673.

It is true, of course, that there is always likely to be a lag between new cases and hospitalisations. Deaths are inevitably going to lag even further behind. Yet Omicron has been with us for nearly three weeks now. We are told that cases are doubling every two days or so. Surely, if it really is going to threaten the NHS, we ought by now to be seeing an uptick in hospitalisations. But where is it? The number of hospitalisations has hovered at between 800 and 1,000 every day, where it’s been since July. There are slightly fewer people in hospital with Covid now than there were a month ago".

[Suff]

Tests over the two days went up by 1.5m roughly. Note 1.5m is not in that list

They did not need to BE there FOR Covid therefore they do not have Covid. Is that it?

No that is not it. The government has very clearly stated that lockdowns or other actions will be based on data which shows that Covid infections are causing a significant stress on the NHS.

People in hospital who have covid, but have not been hospitalised with covid, unless serious, do not fit that data metric and should not be used for the decision process. That needs to be clearly stated and shown as a separate metric.

For the tests, a very quick look at the graph, at the link you sent to me, shows a 50% swing between the trough on November 27th and the peak on Dec 14th (on this chart). Perhaps I'm cherry picking, you are correct peak to trough is not a good metric. I was going from my own view from the worldometers. It is clear we hit nearly 2m tests in March, peak of the wave2.

The 7 day trend is fairly strongly up. More tests, more positives. Doesn't mean a bigger problem. The trend is not doubling, you are correct. it is, however, double the lows in the middle of the year and it is growing strongly.

Meanwhile the screaming and howling of doom and gloom of "the sky is falling" has already had its first impact. France is using our own officials "projections" to block UK citizens from coming to France for Christmas. Right now that block does not exclude family members and if our triple vaccinated daughter can't make it for Christmas because Officials want to make grandstanding statements, should this not (not for the first time), turn out to be what was projected; I am going to be even more critical of these "officials" than I currently am.

Today I had my third vaccination I didn't want. Not for me, but to ensure I am not a risk to others. To then be stabbed in the back by officials who won't live up to the responsibilities of their job, does not leave me feeling very positive about the whole situation.

They can have their votes of whatever confidence they want. I know where my confidence is and it is not with officials who want to put their work on us.

[Workingman]

Surely, if it really is going to threaten the NHS, we ought by now to be seeing an uptick in hospitalisations.

Not so sure.

It has been with us since the 28th of November. On Tuesday the 14th I reported thus: in the space of ten days it had gone from 2 to 448 cases. In the six days since then it has gone to 5,346 cases. Today the total stands at 11,708. It has only been a week since any really statistically significant number of cases arose; and then there is a the lag between infection, symptoms, hospitalisation and deaths. More time is needed - a couple of weeks perhaps.

[Suff]

Leaving the control freaks to destroy another Christmas.

At this rate Christmas will be trashed every year to 2025.