Peace in our time?

[Workingman]

Rumours are that Ukraine will abandon any attempt to join NATO. It will also look to have a deal similar to Norway or Switzerlan with the EU rather than full membership. In return Russia pulls its troops back to the old border from Kharkiv, past Sumy, round to Kyiv in the north.

That is the initial hope.

That just leaves a strip in the south and east - parts of the oblasts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia plus Donetsk and Luhansk. See my old map.

Putin wants a land corridor between Russia and Crimea - he always has. He was halfway there recognising Luhansk and Donetsk, if he gets the south of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts it is job done and he can sell it as a win to the Russian people.

The war stops.

Yes, Ukraine loses land, but it has been fighting rebels in these areas for decades, and they would go on forever more. Like it or not there isn't a peace agreement on the planet that is going to get those areas back - not even when Putin is gone.

[Suff]

Worse, if Ukraine were to use the hardware they got to defend themselves to get rid of the rebels, the west would condemn them.

But, in fact, the best way they can keep Russia out is to get rid of the rebels.

Catch 22

[Suff]

Another point only being talked about in detail in the financial circles is that it looks like Russia may default on US$ denominated sovereign bonds. It's only about $117m in US$, but the west has so thoroughly locked Russia out of the finance markets that they may find this difficult.

So you have to wonder whether the Russian more "accommodating" stance is coming about as Russia looks like showing the whole world that sanctions are actually working to a degree. More in the case of longer term damage than in terms of stopping the assault. The materials for the entire campaign should have been stocked up ready to throw at Ukraine.

That being said, if the war in Ukraine continues past the point of the initial weaponry stocked for the duration of the war, then Russia are going to find this harder and harder to sustain. Revenues falling, materials no longer available, the war could easily grind to a halt simply by the inability of Russia to keep on fighting.

I suspect that, to date, Russia has fired off more ordnance at Ukraine than it did in the entirety of the Syria conflict. Lost significantly more people and equipment too.

So long as Ukraine has somewhere to fight from and NATO keeps supplying them with the means, the Russian campaign will come closer and closer to crippling Russia.

It is a real balancing act. If Russia's new stance comes from a real fear that they cannot win, then Ukraine may set conditions they will not want to meet. How do you set the amount of your country that you're going to give away to an invading army? If you even sniff that they may lose, would you agree to anything above "nothing"?

[Workingman]

$117m is peanuts in a multi trillion (choose you currency icon) global economy. A single oligarch, one not sanctioned, could pay it off and have change to spare. If defaulting could bring down the global economy then the system is not fit for purpose. Due to Western sanctions Russia is so locked out it couldn't give a stuff. Hawkish actions by the West could have consequences, who would have thought it?

Russia has almost everything it needs in natural resources and manpower to supply its military - it is not a capitalist economy. Conscription for all! It It will go on and on unless we talk - or nuke each other.

[Suff]

Having the resources and having developed the capability to Use those resources are two different things.

Russia has been seduced into selling its oil to buy stuff it doesn't want to develop the capability for and also borrowing money to fund things they want to do "now" and not when the taxes on the oil and gas sales roll in.

Russia, until this war started, had the highest credit rating any country could have. That means they borrowed money which was not heavily protected.

$117m is only the interest on what they borrowed. At current rates that will be tens of $billions. Of course the financial markets won't fall, but it will give them a severe case of indigestion which could case a mini financial crisis. Something the sanction instigators won't fully escape.

An example of buying, not making, comes from their space program. A critical rocket fuel (could be igniter fuel, not sure), is sourced from Belgium. They don't make it in Russia any more. One move by the Belgian company and Roscosmos can't launch rockets, once the current stocks are depleted, until they set up the factory and make it themselves. Where was it made in USSR days? Ukraine.

Of course Roscosmos will still need to fly, because the Soyuz carries extra fuel to boost the ISS back into stable orbit and to help avoid space junk. But should SpaceX modify Dragon (either cargo or crew), to do this same task, then Russia could find themselves with a bunch of rockets they can't launch until they make the fuel.

They can talk all they want. But the initial Russian dialogue was "SURRENDER", "SURRENDER", "SURRENDER", "SURRENDER", "SURRENDER". Now it has changed a bit. It would be nice to know the Ukrainian response. Probably succeeded by "off" and "you".

Let's say that France decided to invade Kent, surrounded London and then held "talks" to stop hostilities. The UK response would be???

Right, off and you, a LOT. with a lot of "and die" interspersed. Why should we expect the Ukrainians to feel any different?