If I were to do something to stop a Yes vote in Scotland

[Workingman]

Putting aside all the touchy-feely stuff about how the world views the Scots v English.....

We are at last approaching a distant cousin of the truth. There is a cohort of anti-EU voters in the "Yes" camp who are hoping/praying that if the vote goes the way they would like the EU will tell Scotland to "Sod off". If what the antis have always said, and if what has been said from within the EU, is true, it is a likely scenario. Scotland will indeed be truly independent.

However, that is not what the "Yes" vote is being sold by Salmond, or others. He is offering "independence lite" with the EU as Scotland's new union partner. In fact that is what the two major parties in Scotland, the SNP and Labour, want. Now my take, rightly or wrongly, is that that is also what most of the "Yes" voters are keen to buy into - Scotland free of the UK but in the EU. Well, they might be in for a shock!

A "Yes" vote could take Scotland to true independence by default, but into a type of independence most of them will not have voted for.

[Suff]

A "Yes" vote could take Scotland to true independence by default, but into a type of independence most of them will not have voted for.

Hence my contention that if Cameron were to make an EU Referendum a certainty, Now, In October, Not in 2017 or mañana, then it would bring the Anti's back from the brink and make the possible Yes a solid NO.

I know Cameron won't do it. So it's back to a possible "Yes".

Oh and don't put the touchy feely-stuff aside too much. I live over here remember. I'm a member of the Scottish community. Local to me there is an "English" club. It has over 500 members. I have Never been advised it even exists, let alone asked to join. Neither has any other Scot that I know of locally. I don't carry a saltire on my car for reasons of Nationalism, I carry it because it makes my life easier....

Scotland could even join NAFTA.... Wouldn't that be interesting... Looking at the wiki page on NAFTA, it says

In terms of combined purchasing power parity GDP of its members, as of 2007 the trade bloc is the largest in the world and second largest by nominal GDP comparison.

The EU is not only not the most desired trading partner, it's also, on it's own, not even the largest. Although if you lump in all the former colonies and "special members", it is a tiny margin larger. But with NAFTA you only need to cope with Two languages and two sets of ideologies.....

Leaving the EU? Scared? Only of holidays in Spain being a bit more difficult.... All these negative things can be spun to a positive. Regardless of what Salmond wants. As I said, the Anti's can always get rid of Salmond after the separation, but without separation, they have to work with the English to leave....

[Suff]

I had a quick look at the Scottish Economy wiki page and it had some interesting things.

Relationship with the United Kingdom[edit]

In the run up to the referendum on Scottish independence opinions on the likely state of a post-UK Scottish economy are varied. Some commentators believe that a current account surplus would accrue to Scotland (including oil and gas revenues).[71] In response, a spokesman for finance secretary John Swinney referred to “the UK’s deteriorating growth outlook" and noted that Scotland was the only area of the UK outside London to record output growth between 2007 and 2010 and that "among the 12 nations and regions of the UK, Scotland is the third most prosperous in terms of output per head – behind only London and the South East of England.”[72]

Scotland has 8.4% of the UK population, 32% of the land mass and generates 9.9% (£56.9bn) of UK tax revenues, and receives 9.3% (£64.5bn) of UK spending back from Westminster.[73] In 2011-2012, this amounted to a budget deficit of 2.3% of GDP, lower than the UK's overall budget deficit for the same period of 6.0% of GDP.[73]

The Scottish unemployment rate stands at 7.3% as of April 2013, which is below the UK figure of 7.9%. Scotland's youth unemployment rate is also lower, standing at 16.1% compared to 20.6% for the rest of the UK.[74]

Major trading partners[edit]

Excluding intra UK trade, the European Union and the United States constitute the largest markets for Scotland's exports. As part of the United Kingdom and the European Union, Scotland fully participates in the single market and free trade area which exists across all EU member states and regions. Recently, with the high rates of growth in many emerging economies of southeast Asia such as China, Thailand and Singapore, there has been a drive towards marketing Scottish products and manufactured goods in these countries, with Singapore entering the top ten destinations for Scottish exports in 2004.[46]

Note: Revenues from North Sea oil and gas are not included in these figures.


Top 10 export destinations, 2011


Destination

Value

United States Increase£3.5 billion
Netherlands Increase£2.7 billion
France Increase£1.9 billion
Germany Increase£1.4 billion
Belgium Increase£1 billion
Republic of Ireland Increase£ 0.8 billion
Norway Decrease£ 0.8 billion
Spain Increase£0.7 billion
Switzerland Increase£0.6 billion
Italy Increase£0.6 billion
Source: Scotland's Global Connections Survey 2011

More interesting would be the countries that stand below Scotland and above New Zealand in GDP.

40 Greece 248,941
41 Finland 247,389
42 Israel 241,069
43 Pakistan 215,117
44 Portugal 212,139
45 Ireland 210,638
46 Algeria 207,021
47 Peru 204,681
48 Kazakhstan 202,656
49 Czech Republic 196,446
50 Qatar 192,402
51 Kuwait 183,219
52 Ukraine 176,309

I can produce real solid figures like this all day, every day. It is the truth of the Scottish position.

Also, very important to note, these figures do _Not_ include Scottish Oil and Gas. As the Scottish GDP is calculated without them. Of the UK GDP, the Oil and Gas are calculated separately and then the Scottish GDP without Oil and Gas is calculated as a proportion of UK GDP. If you included Oil and Gas, it would be even higher. The list above would probably include

36 Chile 268,314
Hong Kong 263,259
37 Nigeria 286,470
38 Egypt 254,671
39 Philippines 250,182

Making Scotland the 35 largest GDP in the world out of some 200 odd countries.

Granted Scotland would have to increase it's GDP by 130% or so to join the G20, but, then again, that's what China, India and Brazil did. Hard to do in a country with a "social Conscience" but actually easier to do from the standpoint that it's not actually that much money in the terms of the big boys.

When you consider it in that aspect, discussions of "Well tough on the Scots if they wind up out of the EU", become entirely nothing more than waffle. Just look at Ukraine, there are 45m people living there. To Scotland's 5m. Although that's probably not a good example as Russia is gobbling them up....

[pederito1]

Some excellent posts on this subject and I wish I had time to study them. Rather small population to kick off and although lots of tangibles I wonder how the liquids stand? Wonder if Mr Salmond really fancies himself as President of the Republic of Scotland? and what would happen to the English people working and living there, eg my son and dil and family?

[Suff]

Of course Salmond would love to be President of Scotland. I'm not sure how many Scots would want him there though.

I doubt Salmond would do anything radical re: the not Scots in Scotland. I suspect that the radical action would be more likely from South of the border. After all, he could only lose from such action and could gain much by being open and welcoming... Remember he's not Anti EU, so he's not anti EU immigration.

The Scots are, basically, pretty level headed. Even if they vote Yes, they're unlikely to "go off on one".