Closer and closer

[Suff]

And why do Scotland say North Sea oil is theirs? Isn't it outside territorial waters?

All countries in the world "did a deal" over continental shelves, where the oil is. If the continental shelf comes up distinctly on your shore, then it's yours. Where the continental shelf is shared, horsetrading is done.

By International law it's Scottish. So they repeat the decisions of the world agreements. What is wrong with this? Except when it's Scottish Oil and England gets the revenues.

This really enrages Scots then they say nasty things about the English. Predictable.

[Suff]

It seems to be on a knife edge now

12 days to go and the momentum has all bee one way so far. No is falling and Yes is gaining. 8% undecided and the Yes has the lead.

I don't see that as a knife edge but I could be wrong. I expect to wake up on a weeks time to see that the Yes has a decisive lead and the undecided are falling off the fence in droves, once the decision has basically been made and they are falling on the Yes camp.

[Workingman]

I am wondering how a "win" will be justified in the referendum?

Eurosceptics keep banging on about not having had a vote on such a momentous decision on Europe for 50 years. They also often refer to the fact that it was not a majority decision. Turnout was about 65% and those in favour won with about 67% of the vote or about 44% of votes cast.

Well now, the Scottish referendum is showing that the sides have narrowed to about 51:49, it depends on what you read whether it is 'Yes' or 'No' getting 51%. So imagine that the turnout is 67%, same as Europe, and the sides split 51:49, the most momentous of decisions will be decided by 1/3 of Scots. Get that, two out of every three Scots will not have voted for independence.

The big difference will be that if the 'No' vote wins the Scots will go back to the ballot a lot sooner than we all have on Europe, and they will keep going back until they make the "right" decision. If/when they vote 'Yes' there will be no going back.

I would also like this square circled:

If Scotland goes independent it will want to join the EU and, therefore, the Euro. We are often told by the Eurosceptics that: 75% or our laws are made in Brussels: we have lost most of our Sovereignty: to join the Euro would be to give up control of our economy, we cannot control EU migration whether positive or negative; we pay in too much for membership of the club; CAP hurts out farmers; anyone can fish in our waters, even land-locked countries.

Tell me, please, how all that equates to 'independence'?

[Suff]

Classic, I try to go back to the BBC article and they have censored themselves, it's vanished. Probably not fit for consumption for poor souls who think it's all going swimmingly for the No camp...

The part I was looking for, from when I read the article, was that the first indications, from postal vote returns, is that turnout is going to be high, very high, higher than Scotland has seen in many a decade at any elections.

I doubt that legitimacy will play a part. If 80% or more of Scots vote and Independence gets >50% of them, then nobody is going to shout foul. Those who did not vote will simply have left it to the others, as those who don't vote always do.

Evan Salmond has backed away from the Euro. It's a poisoned chalice if ever there was one. The question will be, in the case of a Yes vote, whether the EU can afford to lose 20% or more of the UK subscriptions and about 75% of North Sea fishing grounds????

My thoughts are No to that.

As to whether Nato will want to lose it's forward Northern listening stations in Scotland or not is another thing too.

There is too much "what if" for a simple decision. Do the Scots want to run their own country? Yes or No. Nobody is saying it's going to be a walk in the park. What is being said is that it is not going to be a disaster and Scotland is not a Banana Republic. Both of which are true.

Whatever is then made of the split, if it happens, will be down to the elected representatives of the Scottish Government. The Scots will have nobody to blame but themselves if it all goes wrong. No longer will they have the leisure to vote in noddy idiots to run the country. Their vote will COUNT!

11 days. We'll see. I see that the Tories are in manic response mode right now. I've been trying to get them to see that there are a block of No votes going to Yes because they can't trust Cameron to get them out of the EU. Now the Tories are looking with real fear at what UKIP could do to them in 2015 if we lose Scotland now. I wonder if Cameron will climb down in time or if he will be buried in screaming panicked bodies?

[cromwell]

It doesn't!

[shazsha]

I have to admit I'm still not convinced there will be a "Yes" win.

In saying that the mood has definitely changed in my area. There's lots of "Yes" posters in windows, cars are displaying Scottish flags and if you're near a "Yes" campaign on the street then horns a re beeping, etc. I'd say that maybe 1in 10 people I have asked are going with the "No" vote but I'd expect that in a working class area-how it plays out over the country remains to be seen.

On debates online I see a lot of people asking about how Scotland would be placed regarding EU membership. Strangely enough this question doesn't pop up much in 'real' life-it's as if nobody really cares whether we get EU membership or not. I'm not quite sure why this is. If the "Yes" vote does win then it'll be interesting to see whether the Scottish public actually wants to join the EU come 2016 as an Independent country-it has to be remembered that any party running for election then, in Scotland, could run with a No to Europe manifesto.

There's still an awful lot of misinformation out there- almost every Scottish newspaper backs the No campaign and I sit daily shaking my head at the so-called news on Independence that they publish.

The Scots will have nobody to blame but themselves if it all goes wrong. No longer will they have the leisure to vote in noddy idiots to run the country.

Exactly! The decisions made on our behalf will be made by a government voted in by Scots. We'll be fully responsible for ourselves which, although quite exciting, is also a little scary.

I know I'm going against the grain on this board but my fingers are seriously crossed for a Yes on 19th September!

[Workingman]

There is nothing wrong with going against the grain, Shaz, not that I think you are. If anybody is it is me.

I am for the EU, not rabidly so, but definitely "for". I am also in the "No" camp with regards Scottish independence, but that is because I think that we are stronger and better together. Not that it matters, I am English so don't get a vote.

The issues of the EU and Euro confuse me simply because they are inconsistent with independence, and they make me wonder what independence is about.

You say that in a 2016 election any party could run a 'No to Europe' campaign, but that is not going to happen: is it? The SNP is a pro-EU party and actively wants Scotland in Europe. So are the Greens and LibDems. Labour is for Europe, but is so afraid of its own shadows it will not come out and say so. The only party to run an 'Out' campaign is the Tories - the busted flush - maybe, possibly, perhaps.

The inference is that Scottish MPs do not want true independence, but they do want independence from the UK, or, more precisely, the English.
I might be wrong, but that is how the whole thing is now coming across.

[Suff]

I know I'm going against the grain on this board but my fingers are seriously crossed for a Yes on 19th September!

Well you're not alone.

Did you catch the bit about the postal voting. Nobody is going to be able to call this one. Turnout is going to be very high and some are going to change their minds right up to the end.

I personally want a "Yes" vote for Scotland. However, were I Farage or Cameron, right now, I would make the most of the threat of a Yes and make changes prior to 2015. Whether it goes No or Yes, these moves can't hurt. But the pair of them seem to be sitting around like stuffed turkeys for all the use they are making of this referendum.

Political lack of stragegy I call it. It is incredibly sad to think that Salmond is the only one of them with a strategy and he's running rings round them...

I also noted that the Yes campaign bought up loads of poster space for next week; right at the beginning of the campaign. Expect to be wall to wall Yes posters come the end of next week.

[shazsha]

Re the EU, WM, I can see positives and negatives on either side and most people I speak to up here are the same. A lot don't really care either way and I don't think the No campaign have really realised this. They seem to focus on it quite a bit and I just don't see it being a major point for the average voter up here.

Turnout is going to be very high and some are going to change their minds right up to the end.

Definitely! In the past few weeks I have printed off about 15-20 voter registration forms for people who hadn't been registered. These were people who I thought wouldn't really have cared whether they had a vote or not.I've actually only spoken to two people who have said they aren't going to bother voting-usually it would be far higher than this.
I read today that Osborne is going to make an announcement in the next few days offering greater powers to the Scottish parliament if they get a No vote. Nobody seems to be fooled by the fact his announcement comes at the same time as an upward swing in the Yes vote...I think his sweetener may be a little too late!

Cameron and Farage have been very low key regarding Independence-with the swing in the polls I now expect to see a lot more of them in the next week but again, it may be too little, too late.

I am definitely feeling more optimistic about a Yes vote but I think I keep telling myself it won't happen so that I'm not too disappointed if it goes the other way.

[TheOstrich]

Time to nail my colours to the mast. Some may consider it inflammatory, so up to you if you want to delete it, Kaz & Di.

I'm one of those who would welcome a Yes vote because if nothing else, it is an opportunity to:

a) say goodbye and good riddance to the hard-core of English haters of Scotland
b) shake the Westminster government to its core, and let's pray something better emerges from the wreckage
c) convince the rUK electorate that a referendum to get us out of the EU can be won despite media / government pressure to the contrary

Additionally:

1) I totally oppose offering the Scots any last minute sweeties. What message does that send to the rest of the population, for example the Moslem communities who are already using their minority status to dictate policy locally in Birmingham?
2) I totally oppose offering currency union. The Scots make their decision to break the Union, and the consequence is they must not be allowed the easy passage of clinging to the rUK coat-tails. rUK must "guarantee" absolutely nothing.
3) At a minimum, I want Trident moved to Devonport, HMRC Cumbernauld moved to Newport or Taunton, and all warship-building to be moved to Southampton / Portsmouth or Belfast, as soon as possible. Golden opportunity to create jobs in the rUK.
3) And I would be totally in favour of the very necessary mooted border controls. Scotland is said to have a "policy want" of importing many immigrants to support its aging population. On the ground, there's few roads actually crossing the border. Easy to limit these to three at the most. And no trains beyond Carlisle or Berwick. The last thing I want is to find is a lot of immigrants flocking south.

You may consider that hard-line rhetoric. But this is a divorce sought purely by the Scottish people and I see no reason why the rest of us should just roll over to Wee Eck and his ilk.