Ebola fear factor

[Suff]

Today we hear that a Spanish nurse contracted Ebola whilst attending one of the missionaries brought back to Spain after contracting the disease.

Point 1. With a deadly and contagious disease, transmitted by body fluid contact, the nurses were given environmental suits which were not totally impervious to fluids.

Not scared enough

Point2. The Nurse, who went on holiday the day after her patient died, contacted a hospital, explained her symptoms and also explained that she had been nursing an Ebola patient. She was not immediately pulled in for testing. It is only after she became badly infectious that she was admitted.

Not nearly scared enough by half.

We were discussing this at work today. Apparently the Belgian medical authorities have given Brussels a 50% chance of contracting the disease within the next 50 days, mainly because of the flights. For France that was 70%.

Only now are they scrambling to put restrictions on to those who are travelling. Only now are they really doing something to try and work out, physically, how they might determine if someone has Ebola or not before getting on a flight out of the infected zones.

We have finally reached the stage that we need our entire medical communities to be on the alert for anyone who might be showing symptoms. Not helped by the fact that the initial symptoms are pretty much identical to a bad cold. It all comes down to how it is perceived as a threat. Or the fear factor. The less scared we are, the more likely it is that the infection will spread.

[Kaz]

Surely there should be some sort of double barrier, by which I mean those nursing Ebola patients should themselves be in quarantine whilst nursing, until it is certain they are clear - rather like how they used to nurse the great infectious epidemics in the past. I think we have become too complacent since antibiotics were introduced, and have almost forgotten how these things used to be done...............

They stopped the Great Fire of London by pulling down houses so the fire couldn't leap across, and it burned itself out.............

[TheOstrich]

I don't know how they could do airport or point of embarkation screening ..... I think that you can only confirm Ebola from blood testing, for example, once symptoms have started to manifest themselves - at which point it's effectively too late.

Because people will lie if asked about their health, maybe you are looking at quarantining all passengers for a flight at the airport for at least 10 days before flight departure to see if anyone manifests the symptoms. And of course you'd have to quarantine them separately .....

[Suff]

Pretty much that's the problem. Blanket travel ban unless you submit to 21 days quarantine and a blood test before flying out again.

Drastic isn't it? But better there than all over the world. We have an even bigger problem in the EU and the US. Open borders. For most of the EU you can just get in a car and head somewhere. So, feeling sick, unsure if your country has the capability to treat you? Get in the car, head for Germany, France, etc, go to A&E and say you are visiting and don't feel well. Even worse if they check into a hotel and the staff handle the sheets of an infectious person. Hotel rooms are just about perfect for the virus, relatively cool, low light..... They're not going to care about going to Jail of they survive....

Hopefully governments will now be scared enough to put in place strong border checks. It was not a problem whilst people in Africa didn't see any option. But as the press goes on about people leaving for the US/Europe and surviving, there is going to be a flood of people out of the countries and they will say, literally, anything to get out.

Now is the time to worry. The press have stopped hyping because the world didn't fall apart in 21 days. Now they have more to go on about. Now is the most dangerous time. Later, if this does spread, we'll start to get decent information on how to act and also the hospitals will all be on alert. Too little, too late, to stop it dead in it's tracks.

This travel should have been controlled. The virus is starting to mutate out of it's virulence. But, still, 40% mortality rate is about 39.999999% more than we're willing to live with.

[TheOstrich]

Of course, Europe has been here before. The derivation of the word quarantine is interesting in itself, as is the history of the plague ships.

Infected people were separated to prevent spread of disease among the ancient Israelites under the Mosaic Law, as recorded in the Old Testament.

The word "quarantine" originates from the Venetian dialect form of the Italian quaranta giorni, meaning 'forty days'. This is due to the 40 day isolation of ships and people before entering the city of Dubrovnik in Dalmatia (formerly known as Ragusa). This was practised as a measure of disease prevention related to the Black Death. Between 1348 and 1359 the Black Death wiped out an estimated 30% of Europe's population, and a significant percentage of Asia's population. The original document from 1377, which is kept in the Archives of Dubrovnik, states that before entering the city, newcomers had to spend 30 days (a trentine) in a restricted place (originally nearby islands) waiting to see whether the symptoms of Black Death would develop. Later, isolation was prolonged to 40 days and was called quarantine.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine

[Workingman]

Interesting Ossie, I wonder if we will bring such measures back?

Moving forward to 2014.

There is not a lot of hard evidence that Ebola is becoming less virulent, and that might be a blessing in disguise. The irony is that if/when if it becomes less virulent the more chance it has to spread from an infected host. A lot will depend upon how it presents itself, especially if it becomes more difficult to diagnose in the early stages of infection. And if the time stretches from weeks to months for it to kill its host or for recovery to complete the more chances there are for others to become infected.

[Suff]

There is not a lot of hard evidence that Ebola is becoming less virulent

I beg to disagree...



this is a representation of the table on the wiki pageon Ebola 2014.
Date ----------- Cases - Deaths
1 Oct 2014 --- 7,492 - 3,439 -- 45.9%
26 Mar 2014 - 86 ----- 62 ------ 72%

What this does not show is that the cases keep growing but the number of deaths follows more slowly. Infection rates always outstrip deaths in the first instance. Yet, in the early stages, the disease is killing so quickly that it is almost keeping pace. Also the other thing this does not show is the % of survivors in the early stages are almost all children, who have such powerful immune systems.

The tally of deaths are probably still >50%. However infection still runs ahead. Unlike traditional outbreaks where it becomes so bad that everyone runs away and the rest of the people are saved, now they are in the cities, nowhere to run, hemmed in by society and kept in place by the police and the Army.

The very nature of our modern society is making this much, much worse. That and lack of education. Nobody that I talked to at work, today, knew how this virus spreads or what precautions to take.

[KateLMead]

I still cannot understand how foreigners arriving in UK from countries where Ebola has a grip can walk through security with impunity leaving this country and its population utterly exposed to this plague .

[pederito1]

I am far from convinced that it cannot be transmitted by a sneeze or even a spluttery cough. Still hoping for a weakening mutation, previous outbreaks have done so to the extent that a normal persons immune system can cope.

[Kaz]

Neither can I Kate Pederito let us hope so!