I wasn't going to post this

[Suff]

But the whole ramifications are simply too interesting to ignore.

It's nearly a month. Yes you know what I'm talking about. Don't yawn, bear with me and I'll explain.

First, the parties are tearing themselves apart fighting over the whole issue of the "English Vote". It's not just the Scots who are unamused, it's upset the Welsh and the Northern Irish too.

Note the speech from Haig on this.

He states...

Insensitivity and indifference to the calls for greater devolution in all parts of the country is the greatest threat to the Union

Sorry William my boy, in fact the greatest threat to the Union is another Scottish Referendum. And the way you are going, it's likely that we will see it sooner rather than later.

One of the most key things I've seen in that second article was noted without comment.

"I've seen people tweeting, saying they regret voting no. It was really distressing to see that."

Well hold me down, I'm going to go into raptures of surprise. Or NOT.

So what does this mean? Well there is another statement in that article and it's one most are simply not talking about.

"If you look at the way that since the referendum result, the SNP membership has trebled - that's a clear outspoken view.

Well yes it is. But what does it mean in real terms? I think This.

It's not just the Scots who are watching the double dealing and backstabbing over Devo Max for Scotland. The English are watching too. So here is what I think is happening.

I think that UKIP is being bolstered every day by every false prattle being put out by the main parties. They are being exposed for what they are in increasing clarity. Simply most of them are political whores who will sell their fate, reputation or, possibly, even their actual body (I surmise, I do not accuse), if they can get enough votes.

So who do we vote for? Well in England it's that "Bloke" who likes a pint and doesn't do politispeakdoubletalk. Well yet anyway. In Scotland it's SNP. The Scots have a lot to be annoyed about. Yes because of a, perceived, lie which stole a referendum and No for a, perceived, lie which stole an opportunity from then which they finally realise they were scared to grasp.

So where does that leave May 2015?

Well let's see what happens at Rochester and Strood. Because if UKIP take that with >50% of the vote on a reasonable turnout, then there will be absolute panic. Both in Tory ranks and Labour ranks. That seat is somewhere around 270 on the UKIP hit list. That will hurt. That will, I expect, open the floodgates to defectors who will all call by elections. The stage has been set. Anyone who crosses the floor will be punished in 2015. Anyone who has the backbone to step down and let the electorate decide will be more likely to be reinstated.

So what does that mean for government after may 2015? Well there are 59 seats going begging in Scotland and I expect Labour to be soundly punished. I expect Lib Dems to be crushed and I expect SNP to grow their seats hugely.

In England UKIP will stand the chance of winning up to 50 seats if the people are willing to be sensible about how they vote.

With at least 80 or so seats going away from the 3 main parties, or should I say the two main parties as I believe Lib Dem will be roundly punished, then we are looking at a minimum of a two way coalition. Could even be a 3 way.

Of course this could all be a pipe dream. Voters could just revert to type at the 2015 election and we can carry on. Labour would probably win that contest as UKIP would fracture the Tory vote and Cameron will simply never agree to a deal with UKIP until it's far, far too late.

Well it's worth sticking my toe in the water and checking the temperature before the pundits have a go...

[Workingman]

The parties, all of them, need to get off their ar5es and ask the English what they would like.

They won't do it because they would probably find that the English have more in common with the Scots on this issue than they imagined.

We do NOT want a political "stitch-up" we want change.

[KateLMead]

HERE. HERE. and So Say All Of Who Have A Brain!!

[cromwell]

The parties, all of them, need to get off their ar5es and ask the English what they would like.

The English want an English Parliament, not a multiplicity of "regional assemblies" stuffed with Z list political retreads, and they don't want elected Mayors either.

Politicians want is best for their own political party and nothing else.

[Suff]

Actually the parties need to get off their collective backsides and deliver all but defence and currency to Scotland. Otherwise the Union is toast and the question of what the English want is moot. The point I was making before. Deliver first, worry about what England wants after.

But, of course, it’s general election time and everyone thinks that independence is off the agenda for the next 20 years, or even forever.

Nobody is thinking that if 75% of the Labour vote in Scotland goes SNP on a non delivery of a promise, specifically designed to change the course of a referendum, then SNP will call another referendum in 2 years. They will win the vote to have the referendum because they will have a majority of Westminster seats in the UK parliament and will get a larger majority in the Scottish elections in 2016.

The reason for that referendum will be a complete failure to deliver on a promise which was key to a No vote.

So, whilst the whole thing goes on, the focus on what the English want is taking time and effort away from delivering on the promise to Scotland. Note, SNP have made it clear. Devo Max is all but defence and currency. Westminster will not want to deliver that or they will also have to deliver it to Wales and NI.

I’m just hoping that betrayal is seen in every voter camp and that the voters vote for a real change in the way British politics works. The only way to achieve this is to change the party dynamics by voting in more MP’s from other parties.

In the end I see a broken Westminster and a broken Union. On the path we are currently following….

[manxie]

I agree with Suff 100% all the other parties have shot themselves in the foot and UKIP will do really well in an election as things stand now.

They have all ignored the public opinion on many things mainly, in my opinion, NHS and Immigration. so now the real problem for them is that they think they know what we want but are woefully ignorant of opinion in the way they take no notice of either the press reports or the public.

Maybe it is time to give UKIP a turn at governing. Frankly I doubt they could do any worse than either Labour or Conservatives have done for a hundred years so far.

OK UKIP have much to learn in regard to many things but I guess it is the civil servants really who do 90% of the work the minister is just the face and mouthpiece.

Very similar to the TV programme "Yes Minister" I would imagine if the truth is known.

I say good luck to UKIP as they seem to be saying what the man and woman in the street are saying and wanting in todays climate.

Most likely again is a coalition but if so it must work for the people not their own intrests.

Manxie xx