You heard it here first

[Suff]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ction-poll

The polls and the papers are just catching up.

Shaz and I both debated this outcome. Nobody really wanted to believe us. Granted it won't be like that, SNP won't take 54 seats in Scotland. But they could take more than half.

Then watch what happens to United Kingdom politics. Labour punished with SNP in Scotland. Tories and Labour punished with UKIP in England.

Going to be an interesting election if nothing else...

[Workingman]

A few things that can be said about Jim Murphy are that he is a firebrand who will not be quietened, and he will not kowtow to the London Labour party.

I imagine that both Labour and the Tories are hoping that he can be successful. The article says that SNP could win as many as 54 Westminster seats. A party bloc of that size could well persuade others from the fringes, Plaid, Sinn Fein, Greens and Independents, to gravitate towards it. Imagine the mayhem such a grouping could cause.

[shazsha]

I'm surprised Jim Murphy has put his name forward for the job. It seems to be the one nobody wants. There is a massive swell against the Red Tories in Scotland and if the feelings run until the elections then Labour are really going to have the stuffing knocked out of them.
The massive jump in SNP membership, more political awareness and the mess the Labour party is in, in general, will see a big change in the political landscape of Scotland and obviously this will have some impact on the UK.
I know many of you don't believe it but Independence is coming to Scotland (I'd guess within the next decade) and the UK, as a whole, is going to see massive political change.

[Workingman]

Isn't it a bit of a win-win for Murphy, Shaz?

If Labour are decimated in the GE it will not be Murphy's fault as he was not the ScotLab party leader when all the damage was done. If he manages to limit the damage, and it could be possible with his firebrand style, it will improve his profile no end in the wider Labour ranks.

I am thinking that politicians never do anything, politically, unless there is something in it for them.

[cromwell]

Jim Murphy is Miliband's chosen man for the leader of Labour in Scotland. Which gives credence to the charge that Labour is treating their Scottish arm like a branch office.

[Workingman]

Does Miliband actually have any choice in the matter? I think not. Don't forget Murphy was a campaign manager for David Miliband's failed attempt to become Labour leader.

Murphy is well known both sides of the border, he has a profile, he was a Minister when Labour governed and has held high offices in opposition. Findlay and Boyack are relative unknowns and lightweights by comparison.

[shazsha]

I don't see it as a win-win situation for him, WM. He was really quite active for BetterTogether in the lead up to the referendum and is despised by a lot of people up here.
The Labour party may not blame him if things go badly for Labour in the GE but it will happen on his watch and that won't really help his career in the long term. I think many people within Labour think that Johann Lamont will shoulder all the hatred towards the Labour party within Scotland and that with her gone the hatred will be gone. I think they are going to be very shocked-JM, Johann Lamont, Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown are not going to be forgiven within Scotland and any party with them at the helm is in trouble.
I'm not really going to go on too much about the referendum and the change it has caused up here because a lot of people will only see it as sour grapes and, if they aren't living it they won't really understand the media lies/manipulation, etc. I don't want to bore you all with it but suffice to say I believe the Labour party are going to be badly burned by the Scots in the next GE and I, for one, will be very glad to see it (and that from someone who was a Labour supporter and campaign helper for years).

[Workingman]

I hear what you are saying. Shaz, but you are engaged with politics and obviously feel let down by Labour. The vast majority of people, all over the world, are not that engaged.

I have never been a Labour supporter, or any party supporter, but I do recognise a player when I see one, and Jim Murphy is a player. If he is canny he does have the ability to limit Labour's losses. It is not certain, that I admit, but it is a possibility.

Writing him off before he has had a chance to change thins could be a big mistake.

[shazsha]

I'm not really writing him off, WM. Rather I am writing off the Labour party in Scotland. I really don't think he will help their cause because, as I say, he was active during the referendum and that will be held against him. However I think any leader of Scottish Labour is in for a tough time in the next couple of years-it's definitely not a job I would take on.
Btw I was only involved in politics in a small way when younger and sillier! For years I have ignored it but the referendum and the after effects has slightly peaked my interest again. I don't even know if it's a good thing but the more I read the angrier I become!

[Workingman]

Well, Shaz, your side lost the referendum, so it is not surprising that you are angry, but that does not make you and Suff right.

There could well be another independence referendum in the future, but not in the next decade or so. And next time you can bet that all the cards will be on the table well before the vote. The Independence side will not be allowed to make promises they have no hope of fulfilling, as they did last time, and the Union side will not be able to promise any devo-max conditions they they cannot deliver.

Tough one all round.