You heard it here first

[TheOstrich]

There could well be another independence referendum in the future, but not in the next decade or so. .

Personally, I think it'll be within the next three - five years, simply because it'll be the price Sturgeon extracts from Milliband to go into coalition with him in Downing Street in May 2015 ....

[Workingman]

Personally, I think it'll be within the next three - five years, simply because it'll be the price Sturgeon extracts from Milliband to go into coalition with him in Downing Street in May 2015 ....

Ah! I hadn't thought of that.

[Suff]

I'm pretty sure that Sturgeon would not ally with Labour in a formal coalition in Westminster. I could be wrong but I believe that this viewpoint shows the fundamental lack of understanding about what is happening in Scotland today.

Scots are turning to SNP to give them another choice. Something which is not the 3 main parties. Something which puts Scotland first and foremost.

To ally with Labour, who led the charge of "Better Together", would be seen as a total betrayal of the trust being put in the SNP by the majority of SNP voters. Shaz didn't go into it in detail but I will try and enlighten.

Even before the referendum, attitudes were changing. Scotland, which has been solid Labour for most of my life, is starting to question what Labour is all about and what it means for the average Scot. The answers are not encouraging. Labour talks about empowering the poor, giving benefits to society and all the other BS they trot out on a daily basis. However the SNP are the one's delivering free services for the old, school fees, equality in society. Labour, on the other hand, was making large speeches and delivering cuts in services.

So the referendum was a result of that disaffection with Labour, not some flight of fancy of Salmond.

So take those pieces and put them together and what do you get? After the Thatcher and Major governments, many Scots swore a solemn vow to themselves that, never again, would they vote for a party in Westminster to shaft them.

So what happened in the referendum? Labour took the lead. Labour led the charge. Brown, for labour, created the solemn vow and changed enough minds to take the day.

Friday morning comes and with one sentence all those Scots realised that their very own, those Labour they had begun to doubt, had led them up the garden path and allowed Westminster to shaft them all over again. Right or wrong, true or false, it is what the people believe that matters. The Scots who wavered, who gave Labour one last and final chance to stand up and be the party of the Scots, for the Scots; sat there with their heads in their hands after Cameron's speech.

They're angry all right. They're furious. With themselves. For allowing themselves to be duped, yet again, on such a large and fundamental issue.

So someone has to pay. They can't punish the Tories, they've already banished them about as far as they can, although they may wind up with no seat in Scotland again. They have already punished the Lib Dems at the EU elections, they will be punished even more in the general election.

So where will this leave things in Scotland? I believe it is possible for the SNP to hold both a majority of Westminster MP's as well as a majority of MSP's in the same overlapping parliaments. Then things are going to change.

I may be wrong but I do not believe that the SNP will ally with Labour. They had the chance in the Scottish government. In the end they chose minority government. It worked. They have not forgotten the lesson and they were rewarded for it. They will also not forget the lesson of the Lib Dems allying with the Tories and the almost universal condemnation they have received from their followers.

What I expect to happen is this.

SNP will win a majority of seats, both in 2015 and 2016, in Scotland.

SNP will take the powers they are given and start to build a track record.
SNP will then address the issue of currency. I believe they will set up a central bank and withdraw from the £, citing their twin majority to do so.

Once they have done this and only once they have done this, will they go back to a referendum. Then they will have a record of taxation, spending and the fear of losing the £ will already be gone. The only thing left to debate will be how much Scottish Oil will benefit Scotland and damage England.

Scottish Labour and Scottish Lib Dems are going to face their Waterloo, just as the Scottish Conservatives did in 1997. What happens next will be an extremely interesting thing to watch.

Shaz, feel free to correct my analysis, but I don't think I'm wrong.

[Workingman]

I believe it is possible for the SNP to hold both a majority of Westminster MP's as well as a majority of MSP's in the same overlapping parliaments. Then things are going to change.

Suff, that was the point I was making in my OP.

The SNP marching on Westminster with the number of Scottish MPs forecast will, not could, be the biggest spoiler ever imagined, and that includes UKIP. They could bring in MPs from other small parties and independents to form a bloc that will have to be listened to. Deals will have to be done.

It is for those reasons that both the Tories and Labour will hope Jim Murphy can change things. Whether he is able to do anything in such a short time looks impossible. I get the impression from reading around that ScotLab are not just disliked they are activerly hated in some quarters. That goes for Englad as well, btw. They have alienated what was their core vote and they will not be forgiven lightly, if ever.

[Suff]

It is for those reasons that both the Tories and Labour will hope Jim Murphy can change things.

They can pray if they want. To any deity they want. It is unlikely to change the tide of wrath. It will be amusing to watch it target labour for a change.... I wonder what they will promise, what threats they will make, to try and sway the voters over?

Scots are all spun out. Now it's their turn....

[shazsha]

I think it's highly likely that the next government will have to form a coalition and the party they'll be looking to will be the SNP. This will give the SNP huge bargaining powers and they'll hold out for whichever party gives them the promise to bring them closer to Independence.

I honestly never believed that changes would happen the day after the referendum. I've got a slight grasp of how parliament works and knew it wouldn't happen as promised. However many people, who were undecided, trusted what they were told. They fully expected to wake up and here that Scotland would have all these fabulous new powers. When it didn't materialise they were angry, bitter and many felt they had been taken for fools.

As more info started coming out they realised they should have taken the chance and voted Yes. For example, many believed it when Ian Woods stated there were only 15-16 billion barrels of oil left and the oil would only last another thirty years. They believed that an Independent Scotland's economy relied on this oil and panicked when they heard this and voted No. Very shortly after the referendum it was announced that new oil fields had been 'found' which could account for another 50 billion barrels.
How convenient this oil was only found after the referendum!
Another point to think about here is that to begin with Sir Ian Wood was impartial regarding the referendum. In August he went against his own previous predictions and made the announcement about how little oil was left. Now why would he do this? Could it be due to the fact that only a couple of days previously a group called Ineos got a fracking license and after the referendum it was announced by David Campbell that landowners could no longer oppose fracking. But what has this to do with Ian Woods-well he just happens to own the Wood Group and Ineos tend to go into projects in partnerships, and the only UK-based oil and gas firm with Shale Gas extraction experience are, yours truly, the Wood Group.

So many No voters are seeing the above(and similar) coming out and feel the No experts may have been lying to them for their own ends.

I've spoken to a great many people who have said if they had the chance to vote again in the referendum they would change their vote from No to Yes.
In the last few weeks I have seen many protests and marches up here that haven't received much, if any, news coverage. I've been surprised by many who are now becoming more aware and I've really noticed a growing hatred towards the Labour Party. Most voters in Scotland have voted Labour their whole lives and they are now viewing Labour as Red Tories who sold us out. No matter who is brought in to run it,the Scottish Labour Party are getting a hammering at the next GE and those voters they have lost are being picked up by the SNP.

If this momentum keeps up I really do see a huge change coming to the face of UK politics and that will include another referendum in a short time.
From the minute AS resigned as First Minister I suspected he would take another route to getting another referendum and that journey is via WM and a coalition government.

Of course all the above may only be wishful thinking on my part but it'll definitely make for a very interesting GE.

Btw WM, when I said in my previous post I was growing angrier the more I dipped into politics I didn't just mean Scottish politics. Lately I've been reading quite a lot about MP expenses and that alone has me fuming!

[Workingman]

You know, it really is time to get over the Friday after the referendum and Devo-Max being implemented before lunch, thing. That was never going to happen: get over yourselves FCOL. It was always going to take time to be implemented. Oh and, Scotland's oil is actually UK oil, as things stand, and the UK will not give it up without a fight. It was going to have to be negotiated. Live with it.

A binding referendum on Scotland's independence requires an act of the UK parliament. It matters not a jot what Sturgeon wants, and when, it will require an act of the UK parliament......... and that will not be easily given. Tough, get over it.

The "No" voters might think that they were duped, but what of the "Yes " voters? Salmond and Sturgeon made promises to them that could never take place, or were debatable at best. They, too, were duped.

Oh yes, one other thing, nobody on the "Yes" side ever explained in any way at all how Scottish independence entailed Scotland giving up its new found independence from the UK and becoming subservient to the EU at the same time. Good body-swerve there.... Go Gavin Hastings.

Angels and Devils? Yes, on both sides.

[shazsha]

You know, it really is time to get over the Friday after the referendum and Devo-Max being implemented before lunch, thing. That was never going to happen: get over yourselves FCOL. It was always going to take time to be implemented. Oh and, Scotland's oil is actually UK oil, as things stand, and the UK will not give it up without a fight. It was going to have to be negotiated. Live with it.

Get over it? I don't have to get over it because I knew it was a crock of crap from the outset. The point I am making is that many people didn't. Their vote was swayed by empty promises that couldn't be kept because they believed their government wouldn't lie so blatantly. Foolish? Yes. Bitter, now they have woken up? You bet they are. And they wont forget it thus the huge swing to the SNP. And I am quite aware it is UK oil. I don't think I said otherwise. However the swing against Labour in Scotland started because the oil would have been Scotland's, if we had gained our Independence, and the electorate here was lied to about the quantities left. I was solely speaking in that context.

A binding referendum on Scotland's independence requires an act of the UK parliament. It matters not a jot what Sturgeon wants, and when, it will require an act of the UK parliament......... and that will not be easily given. Tough, get over it.

Get over it? That's what the government and BetterTogether campaign expected. They thought a No vote would go through and things would go back to normal. Newsflash-that is not going to happen. Extra newsflash-we know Scotland isn't going to get it's Independence just because we want it. However we're not just going to roll over, the issue isn't just going to go away so some will just have to get over that. They'll have to get over the fact that a change in the political landscape will come and it wont be guided by UKIP-rather it will be driven by the SNP.

The "No" voters might think that they were duped, but what of the "Yes " voters? Salmond and Sturgeon made promises to them that could never take place, or were debatable at best. They, too, were duped.

Care to explain this?

Oh yes, one other thing, nobody on the "Yes" side ever explained in any way at all how Scottish independence entailed Scotland giving up its new found independence from the UK and becoming subservient to the EU at the same time. Good body-swerve there.... Go Gavin Hastings.

Yes they did, many times. You just chose not to accept the explanation. Additional note; Scotland wouldn't have had to become subservient to the EU as it is already part of it as part of the UK.

[Workingman]

Sorry, Shaz, I had a rant. I read quite a few political blogs/comments pages and no opportunity is ever missed by some people to have a pop at how the referendum was won/lost and how, come the day, the Scots are going to "stick it" to the UK, mainly England. It has got to the point where the moderators of some sites turn comments off. That is not good for either debate or democracy.

Anyway, back to ScotLab and how it might fare come the GE. Jim Murphy has now quit the shadow cabinet in order to focus on his campaign for the leadership. He has also said that he will quit his seat of East Renfrewshire and seek to stand as an MSP. You have to say that he is taking this seriously and is getting a few acres of largely positive newsprint in the process. Is that media coverage being driven by London Labour and Consrevatives or is it a general feeling that he can succeed, maybe over the longer term: who knows?

It will be interesting to see how the polls go once he is installed, which he will be. He is not a darling of the Left and he has some work to do with some powerful Unions.

[TheOstrich]

I'm pretty sure that Sturgeon would not ally with Labour in a formal coalition in Westminster. I could be wrong but I believe that this viewpoint shows the fundamental lack of understanding about what is happening in Scotland today.
.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... l-election

Remember - increasingly this is no longer just about Scotland.

I think I might speak for most loyal Englishmen if I say that an SNP-inclusive coalition will go down an absolute bomb south of the border, and might have the unintended result of ultimately boosting UKIP into becoming the dominant English party by the end of the decade.

But politicians of all hues so love to embrace convenient short-termism and expediency these days ......