by Suff » 03 Nov 2014, 00:46
Shaz, I'm as interested as you are. I just don't have the same level of time to research it. Just because I'm no longer resident in Scotland, doesn't mean I'm not deeply interested in the welfare of Scotland. I'll be back in December for the RSCDS St Andrews Ball in St Andrews...
I'm highly interested in the fallout of all of this. I believe that in trying to stop one impact, namely the loss of Scotland to the Union, they have created another change will might just be almost as destructive to the politics of the Union.
I am, however, interested to hear that the news about the Oil reserves, available at the time during the referendum debates, has now been validated instead of being dismissed. That little deception is going to cost someone very dearly indeed.
I recall, during the run up to the EU constitution referendums, that every house in France, every library, every pub, every meeting point, was distributed with a copy of the constitution. There were raging discussions in the pubs and restaurants. People would be arguing something and suddenly a copy would be pulled out and someone would say "Here, it says right here". That is the same kind of engagement we saw in Scotland during the independence referendum. You don't just switch that off. People follow up. People in France are sitting up and taking notice of the dealings in the EU. Sarcozy paid the price of that engagement at his next election.
So why would we expect the Scots to just turn it off and go back to business as usual? In the UK, once the constitution was gone, the focus was gone. However all over Europe it stayed and the focus has been retained. It resulted in the last EU votes which significantly changed the balance of power in the parliament.
I expect the same to happen in Scotland in the two coming elections. 2015 and 2016. I expect the supporters of the Union to be punished most and the leaders of the "lie" (as it is perceived), to be punished most. I wonder if Brown will retain his seat or not? Although it's Kirkcaldy, the Lang Toon as they call it and Labour support there is more like tectonic plates than bedrock. I will be watching that vote very closely as I will be watching Glenrothes who's town council went SNP but who voted in Labour for Westminster a few years later.
All of this will have a huge impact. At the same time we have a by election in England shortly. The result of that may drive many more Tory defections. Which will, in turn, drive more and more action against the EU status quo. After all, if it becomes a straightforward fight between ditching the EU or losing the election, then the EU will go sailing down the river. Cameron is already driving down that road. Merkel see's the signs and understands what is driving it. She's circling the wagons.
Darling may think he's going to do some miracle for the EU, but you can bet on one thing. Now that we have set the bar, now they know that open borders are on the table, there is no way in hell that the leaders of the three institutions will come rushing in, at the 11th hour, offering extensive promises to keep the UK in the fold. For them there really is a price which is too high.
The window into all of this is going to be highly interesting. But it begins with 4.5 million empowered and engaged Scots. Where it ends is truly another matter.
There are 10 types of people in the world:
Those who understand Binary and those who do not.