The Labour Party

[Suff]

On another note, where WM suggested that I might be out of touch with the people of the UK because I live and work in the EU....

Interesting timing. Almost as if someone heard me....

I may live and work in the EU, but I run a UK company, repatriate my earnings to the UK, watch the UK press and financial news on a daily basis because it affects me directly on how much I earn. Something it does not directly do so much for those working in the UK.

I am very sensitive to how the press presents stuff and what they are saying and how they are trying to present stuff. Remember I'm half a Scot who lived in Scotland for half his life, I'm already pre-conditioned to the way the press present information north and south of the border, let alone how they twist reality to their own ends.

I have children and grandchildren in the UK (One grandchild in further education). I talk to them all the time. Only my politically and environmentally active children (two of them), either give a damn about what is going on in politics or what is happening to the climate.....

Sometimes I wonder where we went wrong with our legacy to them???

[Workingman]

Suff, I am well aware that you are well read on politics and financial matters, and I respect that. What I was suggesting in my earlier comment was that, despite your family connections and geographical connections within the UK, you are not subject to the general feeling on the streets as they present themselves today. They are not given coverage by the media, except in a qualified way.

That is not a criticism, it is simply how things are.

There are many in the older generation who do like what Corbyn is saying about renationalisation of some things - mainly utilities. They are not left-wing, in political speak, they just do not see what privatisation of those things has been of benefit - personally. It is true that they view him as a Curate's Egg, but they are prepared to give him, and Labour under him, a chance. And the young, generally, have always, been left-wing.

I am not arguing for Corbyn, not at all. What I am saying is for people not to be blinded by their own desires, desires which might not be realised.

Corbyn could well become Labour leader, and if he does the politic landscape will change to accommodate him. There will have to be give and take, from both sides of the Labour divide. How things will pan out is anybody's guess.

[Suff]

Sorry didn't mean it to be this long but this is not as simple a subject as many would have us believe.

Granted I don't talk to the person on the street too much, but then I never did. Nor down the pub, although I frequent a pub here in Brussels which is full of transient workers who are working 2-3 days a week here in Brussels but based in the UK. My Sister in Law will fight a MSP seat for the SNP in the 2016 election and I get two completely different forms of discussion from my two political sons who live in diametrically opposed parts of the country and have diametrically opposed views on politics. Ditto my son's in law, one of whom is a retired ex director of finance for the NHS and the other is a truck salesman....

But I am willing to accept that I don't get to read the message on the street in local areas of the UK.

If I recall correctly I was of the opinion that the SNP loudmouthing would be bad for Labour in England and that their destruction in Scotland would not help them. Remember that their vote in England held up better than some had expected, which is why Cameron didn't quite get the majority he was looking for.

I did believe that there might be an outside chance of a SNP/Lab coalition if the Labour vote did hold up well in England. However I also was very sure the Lib Dems would be punished heavily at the election and I was also aware that many of those voters would move Labour rather than Tory as Labour would have been the second best choice for many of them. Which is why Labour held those seats. It was mainly the total collapse of Labour and the Lib Dems to the SNP in Scotland, plus the virtual decimation of Lib Dems in England and Wales which created the Victory for Cameron. If the Lib Dems had not collapsed in England and Wales, the Tories would not have won.

Milliband was acceptable to those Lib Dem voters in a way that Corbyn is unlikely to be. Midrightwingers are far more likely to vote New Labour than Old Labour.

Here's another prediction for you. The SNP don't need to break with the UK for Labour to be fatally wounded. Those seats they took from Labour may revert, to a degree, at the next election. But it will be "to a degree". You have stated that I don't understand the issues and feelings on the street in England. You may be right. But I contend that you haven't experienced the implacable and continuing hostility which the Scottish electorate can exhibit to a party that they believe has betrayed them.

In 1997 I prophesied that the Tories would not get more than one Tory MP in Scotland for a generation. Or more if they didn't step back and start listening to Scots issues. That had started to heal until one September morning in 2014 David Cameron stood up to a lectern, live on TV and said the words that a vast majority of Scots saw as an absolute and total betrayal of a solemn promise, made with no other agenda in mind but to derail a very close referendum vote. He destroyed the trust of the Scots in the Tories for another generation right then and there.

However Labour and the Lib Dems were standing on the same podium as the Tories throughout that campaign. They were tarred with the same Brush.

The English? Totally failing to understand what had happened gaily went on talking about the "only important thing" to talk about. I.e. how to wall the Scots out of the UK government due to their partial separation from the power and influence of the UK. After all the referendum was over was it not.

And so, after this little recent history recitation, this leads us neatly up to the Labour leadership.

Scotland is already gone as far as Labour are concerned. SNP has become the 3rd party and the Lib Dems are virtually destroyed (again).

So how is Labour going to get back those votes? By talking nationalisation? Well, actually, that would normally go down pretty well with the Scots vote. Except for the fact that he could no longer Nationalise the Scottish utilities. I think you'll find that once the devolution bill goes through, he won't have the power. Also the Scots are still pretty damned mad about Labour. This journey has been going for a long time in Scotland and the simmering resentment is not going to end any time soon. OK they may get 10 seats back, but nothing like the near 50 they had.

So Scotland is a lost case. We'll find out just how lost at the Scottish elections next year.

So that leaves England and Wales. Now, as I recall, Labour took back one or two seats from the Tories at the last election but most of the gains were where the Lib Dems had lost their vote. The Lib Dems are, of course, unlikely to be swayed by some huge, expensive, government buying scheme with no plan as to how these utilities are going to be run, how they are going to be funded for the changes which need to be done and how they are going to net a profit for the country.

So now they've lost the Lib Dems. They'll probably lose a lot of the New Labour voters who are borderline Lib Dems anyway.

So where does that leave them?

What do I expect over the next 5 years? With Corbyn as leader and depending on how Cameron handles everything, I expect the following:

If Cameron does well...

Tories to grow slightly.
Lib Dems to recover 15 more seats
UKIP to, maybe, take 2 or 3 seats
Labour to diminish more

If Cameron does not do well

Tories to shrink slightly
Lib Dems to take 20 more seats
UKIP to take up to 20 seats
Labour to diminish more

You are not going to see any of that in the press. The press have totally failed to tie in the Scottish UK vote to the entire UK vote. They did not believe the Labour collapse in Scotland. They did not believe the Lib Dem crash in Scotland. In fact they didn't really believe the Lib Dems would collapse in England. They thought they'd be hurt but not decimated. They were still forecasting 20+ seats on 8% of the vote. Talk about blind to the truth.

So my take is that whatever upswing Corbyn may have in people who remember nationalisation with some kind of fondness and people who believe the press that between 2% and 5% profit for utilities is obscene; will be overwhelmed by the other factors going against him.

The Blairites know this exactly. They know what they had to do to the party to get those votes and they know where those votes are going to go if Corbyn gets in.

On the + side, if you think that way, it will be a minimum 4 horse race and could be a 5 horse race. That should really mess up UK politics good time...

This is my prediction. 4.5 years out. You can check it at the next election. Although it should start becoming evident in 2-3 years time.

I note one bookie is already paying out on the few 100:1 punters who betted on Corbyn winning. One full month before the election proper. Clearly they think it's a foregone conclusion. I think that the Labour party is doing what most people do in a time of crisis. Clinging to their faith, regardless of reality.

I'm OK with that. As you know and I have not been shy of saying it. I'll never vote for them. Ever. Must be my implacable Scots side...

[Workingman]

In the UK Westminster still provides the UK government, and we are still the UK in international terms. Scotland is as emasculated as Wales or NI as England alone returns the most UK MPs.

Labour and the Conservatives have lost Scotland, and to some extent Wales and NI, that is why England is the real battleground. The future of the UK will be decided in England. If enough centrist voters move back to the LibDems and Labour the next coalition government could be another LibLab pact.

My take on everything is that it is governed by uncertainty. The Labour leadership contest is only the first note in the opera to follow.

[Suff]

It is correct and is also the reason, if you recall, that I was stating, before the last election, that unless the English make up their mind, the Scots and others will rule Westminster. However if the English DO make up their minds decisively, then all the rest, together, are irrelevant.

As for Corbyn and "Old Labour" as a vehicle for doing that? Old Labour, to me, is basically a half step into communism. Communism is glaringly typified by the Agricultural situation in Russia.

Just reading that article tells you everything which is wrong with communism and state owned utilities. Even when Gorbachev opened up the land use to individuals, they failed to do so because

The lack of enthusiasm for the creation of private farms was attributed to inadequate rural infrastructure, which did not provide processing and marketing services for small producers and also to the fear that families striking out on their own might lose eligibility for social services that were traditionally provided by the local corporate farm instead of the municipality

In other words the benefits were too great to entice people to go out there and make it on their own. The crops could lie rotting in the fields and nobody would lose their jobs or their benefits....

For most of the Soviet years the main envy of Russians for the west was not about money or goods or flashy cars. It was about the ease of access, all year round to both basic staples of food and also luxury foods.

And here is the real killer. During all those Soviet years the great "nationalised" "Collectiv's", failed miserably to feed the country.

During 2006, household plots and peasant farms combined controlled about 20% of agricultural land and 48% of cattle,[3] up from 2% of agricultural land and 17% of cattle in 1990. The share of the individual sector in gross agricultural output increased from 26% in 1990 to 59% in 2005. Producing 59% of agricultural output on 20% of land

This is the hard core basic reality of socialist government owned utilities and private entities. Granted private entities need governing, but that is what we're supposed to vote our government in for.

So let's see how popular Corby really is. When the press explain just how many of those utility shares make up a core segment of the private pension plans for the country. Those shares which will vanish and have to be re-invested somewhere else. Shares which might never see face value in a nationalisation.

The rage I see from people who talk about "Brown killed my pension" will not go away when the press say "Corbyn will steal your pension". It will bury him.

Today that debate is not happening because those who don't want his style of leadership will do nothing to stop him being elected. They want him to be elected (Me too), because he's vulnerable to them.....

Food for thought eh???

[Workingman]

Food for thought eh???

Definitely.

The UK media is largely run by the Right and from what I have seen it has been more fucussed on how poor the other three are than on how bad Corbyn could be.

The leadership election is a mess. I believe that Mary Creagh, one of the more sensible candidates, was persuaded to drop out early because the likes of Margaret Beckett and John Prescott wanted Labour to be seen as a broad church, and for that it needed a left-wing candidate.

So they rolled out Corbyn hoping that his "loony" left ideas would be a turn-off, "but hey, we gave you a left-wing candidate". How wrong has that turned out for them? He is more popular than the other three put together, and that is from within and without the party.

The Labour leadership might be the only national election he ever wins, but he will stir up UK politics, that's for sure, and a lot of the electorate will be more than happy for that to happen.

[Suff]

The Labour leadership might be the only national election he ever wins, but he will stir up UK politics, that's for sure, and a lot of the electorate will be more than happy for that to happen.

Indeed. It's already been mooted that Corbynitus may actually slow the Tories down in their reforms if for no other reason than to differentiate themselves even more from Left Wing Labour.

Not sure I believe it. Cameron is enough of a small soft C tory to keep these things on a slower trajectory than, say, Maggie had to. Then again Maggie had ten times the problems to solve.

We shall see how it goes. For me the worst result is that Corbyn doesn't win.

[Workingman]

I see Mrs Balls-Cooper has now come out and said the Labour party might split if Corbyn wins, she also said the party appeared "to be polarising" between "different extremes".

So it is fine if her "extreme" wins, but it will be the end of days if the other "extreme" wins.

I will laugh myself silly if this new Gang of Three walk away from the fight with some more spineless MPs and then find that the electorate do not support them.

On the other hand I will cry for the country not having an opposition worthy of the name.

[Suff]

I will laugh myself silly if this new Gang of Three walk away from the fight with some more spineless MPs and then find that the electorate do not support them.

That would be the Dims of the Lab Dims then, last time... Didn't work so well for the SDLP did it...

On the other hand I will cry for the country not having an opposition worthy of the name.

I already thought that. I was more worried when Blair didn't have an opposition worth the name and I was proved right.... Sadly....

[Suff]

So we have a piece of rebuttal of Corbyn in the FT.

It would be a sad and possibly final chapter in the British Labour party’s history. If the leadership election that closes in two weeks’ time is won by Jeremy Corbyn, the current favourite, his policies — printing money, state ownership of major industries, unilateral disarmament and quitting Nato — will make the party unelectable

I wasn't logged in so it should be public.

Interestingly, the author of the article could not have put it in a place where people were likely to care less about the demise of the Labour party. Terms such as

creating prosperity and sharing it more widely

Are not quite a creed the readers of the FT go by. More like creating wealth and Keeping IT.

But I think he's spot on about the unelectable part. At a time when Russia is becoming more aggressive and talking about revisiting it's nuclear capability, Corbyn is talking unilateral disarmament and leaving NATO. Yeah, well, whatever you say you loon. He was never going to get my vote but if there was the slightest whisper of a change he would have deep sixed it.

Sadly I can't avoid all the hype around him. But when he talks about Women only carriages, all I see is a whole bunch of sound bytes meant to play to the pressure groups. But, I must ask, where is his policy.

Because, as far as I can determine. His policies run thus.

Spend loads of money
Drive the investors away
Print loads of money
Make ourselves totally vulnerable to attack and incapable of honouring our duties to our dependent states
Break down all the progress over the last 20 years
Give in to pressure groups

The kind of people who would have liked to rename London to LondonGrad in the 80's.

The kind of people I don't like very much. Fortunately there are more like me who don't like them than there are those who do...

Perhaps if Corbyn was to totally destroy the Labour party we might get something to replace them with that I might actually want to vote for. Well I'm not holding my breath.