Turkey and Russia

[Workingman]

Erdogan is visiting Putin in Moscow on his first overseas visit after the attempted coup. That he has not visited the EU in Brussels, or the US, or any leading NATO ally should be a bit of a worry for the West.

Both men have said that they want to reset relations, starting with a 'clean slate', in order to go forward. That could mean many things. They are both despots wanting absolute power. Neither is too concerned about human rights, nor are they big fans of democracy. They share a border in the Black Sea and Turkey controls the Bosporus - the gateway to the Med and beyond.

If Turkey quits NATO and makes a pact with Russia they would make a formidable force. They each have large, well trained and well equipped armed forces and could cut the West off from the Middle East.

One to watch, as they say.

[Suff]

I always thought the claims that Fethullah Gulen had caused the coup looked like a scripted response which was in the drawer waiting for the inevitable.

Now Erdogan has infuriated the West, the EU is looking like cutting ties and, critically, money, the UK, Turkey's ally in the EU is leaving the EU and Putting smells advantage. No wonder they are meeting.

Expect Putin to make overtures to the UK in 18 months or so.

It's looking decidedly dodgy for the west and Turkey. But, then again, Turkey has been playing a dangerous game in the middle east for decades now and Erdogan is the worst of the lot.

I will watch it because, as I say, I have family interests in the area, but I don't have any hopes that things will return to any kind of "normal" any time soon. I see Turkey's demise written in the sand unless the rest of the military rise up and depose Erdogan and his cronies.

[cromwell]

International politics baffles me sometimes (well, quite a lot of the time to be fair).

I know that Putin isn't a white knight, but also I do wonder if he is as bad as he is painted. Given the chance would Russia actually be a friendly nation, if we let it? Because some of the hostility shown towards Russia seems over the top. "The International Community" ie the USA and it's European allies seem intent on smashing up the Middle East with a view to isolating Iran, the enemy of Saudi Arabia. With his support of the Syrian government, Putin has put a spoke in that wheel.

Hilary Clinton seems a very gung-ho character and if she gets elected President it wouldn't surprise me if she ramped up the USA's military presence in the Mid East. Let's not forget, it wasn't Russia who invaded Iraq and Libya, or who is backing 7 brands of nutcase in Syria.

The idea that Turkey might quit NATO hadn't occurred to me before now WM, but blimey, if they did it would put a spanner in the works big time. US bases out of Turkey, Russians in, floodgates opened to let illegal immigrants rush into Europe once more. Wow.

[Suff]

If you look way, way back in the conversation threads here, you will find I said that the very best resolution for Syria was that Russia backed assad and, eventually, the coalition dumped the rebels and helped Assad drive IS and the rebels out of Syria.

I don't believe that Putin is anywhere near as bad as, say, Bush and that Russia is actually not anywhere near as bad as they west want to continue painting them.

I've also said that Putin is faced with an environment which is very close to the USA in the 1920's. Gangsters everywhere who don't pay tax and intimidate the tax authorities with weapons and force. The FBI was created to deal with that and they were armed like an army to deal with the problem.

On and off I watch RT news. Whilst I'm very wary of the way it is Russia state biased, it is also a very refreshing change of viewpoint on a lot of other items.

As for Turkey? The EU and the US want him to go easy on the Kurds. He knows he can't if he wants to be the dictator that he'd like to be. A tie up with Russia to get the EU and the US off his back? Drop Nato? It depends on whether he's totally written off the billions of aid from the EU and visa free access to the EU for his 70 odd million people or not. For that you'd need to get into his mind and I'm not sure he has, yet, let that aspiration go. Putin simply doesn't have that money to throw around. Well not yet anyway.

[Workingman]

Putin might not have the money the US and EU have, but he has an ace or two.

He can make Erdogan the King of his own back yard, something the West will never allow to happen. So, if he wants to crush the Kurds, Putin will not get in his way. With Erdogan on board he also closes NATO's back door.

During the Cold War the Russian controlled territory went all the way from E. Germany to the Pacific... except that NATO had Turkey covering the back alley and a way in to the heartlands of Russia proper. It was also the entry point to the Middle East. Take Turkey away and all that is lost.

For Putin it is well worth getting his hands on. For Erdogan, who wants to be Dictator, the last thing he wants is Turks wandering all over Europe; he wants them closed in at home - more control.

[Suff]

Ah but to achieve that dictatorship with a popular support and the benefits of western technology he needs money. If his economy tanks and his people wind up out of jobs because of the refugees, he could find himself out of power faster than you can say "election".

He is walking a very fine line right now and needs some more pieces in place to achieve his goals. Once he's cemented his power he can start pulling his people back. In fact the EU will cut off his pepole's access and force his people back to punish him for his actions.

It would make a real dark satirical comedy if it was not played with innocent people's lives...

I do wonder if Pavlov started working with politicians first, before he started working with the more intelligent dogs....

[Workingman]

But does he actually need 'money' money?

Dictatorships can be achieved by force, fear and favours. Erdogan's actions against the military, police, academics, teachers and media already show that he is using the first two. There is also a lot of evidence that his 'popular' protests are organised by his regime - turn up, or else.

His new elite will be there by his favour, and they will know it. Step out of line and they are archive material.

He might be walking a fine line, but the rewards, as he sees them, will be worth it. Don't forget, he is not a western libertarian democrat, he is forced into that at the moment and, against his will and instincts, to be a sectarian. Given free rein and he would be an Islamist.