Pauvre France

[Workingman]

Sarkozy is out. Juppe, firm favourite of the elite and media, came second; and Fillon came first.

So, it is Juppe v Fillon next week, and the winner will face Marine Le Pen next May. No socialist contenders.

The BBC is spinning it that the centre-right will win. Sky is a bit less sure. Whatever happens, it is obvious that many French people are not as in love with the current EU as its politicians.

Polls say that Juppe would beat Le Pen, but Fillon might not. It looks as though it is all up for grabs.

And then there is Merkel standing again.

We live in interesting times.

[Suff]

We live in interesting times.

We do indeed. It will be extremely interesting to see how it all pans out.

[cromwell]

There will be many people in the EU praying that Le Pen doesn't win, and quite a few working to try and make sure she doesn't.

Is it certain that no Socialist will stand?

[Suff]

Well I'm sure Hollande will stand. I just don't think anyone wants to challenge him. Bit of a poisoned chalice really. They are very much vilified right now.

[Workingman]

There will be many people in the EU praying that Le Pen doesn't win, and quite a few working to try and make sure she doesn't.

Is it certain that no Socialist will stand?

They are seen as non-contenders, but maybe Hollande will give it a go.

It will be interesting to see if they "advise" their followers to go to the centre-right candidate just to keep Le Pen out. I would not bet against that scenario.

[Workingman]

Fillon did win and it was a big win. He got twice as many votes as the Establishment's man, Juppe.

It will be interesting to see what Hollande now decides on - fight or flight.

The British media is now on Fillon's charm offensive, but whispering very quietly about his claim for the need for drastic cuts in state spending. He has been clear and very hardline on that issue, he wants austerity max to fix what he sees as France's "broken" social model. That is going to be a hard sell with Le Pen blaming it on immigrants and too much interference form the EU.

Could we be about to see the third big shift in politics following Brexit and Trump? If Le Pen gets in could we also see Frexit?

[Suff]

Could we be about to see the third big shift in politics following Brexit and Trump? If Le Pen gets in could we also see Frexit?

I have a friend who says that the moment the French realise they no longer run the EU, they will leave....

It's an interesting situation. I'll be following it both from the French side and the international side.

[Workingman]

Filllon has been talking of slashing 500,000 public jobs, raising the retirement age, scrapping wealth taxes and ending the 35-hour week. He is also a practising Catholic and a traditionalist, which puts him at odds with such things as abortion and gay marriage.

Le Pen is anti-establishment, anti-Euro and anti-immigration. She talks of the French people and French culture being eroded by economic liberalism and multiculturalism imposed from abroad – the EU. She wants to cut legal immigration to 10,000 “entries” a year, deport all illegals, raise the minimum wage and lower the retirement age to 60.

Tough choice if you are a French voter.

[Suff]

So, in fact, Le Pen is a far right candidate with a mainly Socialist agenda....

Sounds kind of like National Socialism to me...

My Mother has another word for it. She calls it "Flexitruth". The meaning of Flexitruth is that the "Truth" is What I want you to believe it is at the time I am telling you....

Sounds about right for a politician. Or a child. Hard to know the difference.

[cromwell]

More upset for the EU. Fillon wants an EU of nation states (ie, no more Federalism and powers returned to countries), Le Pen wants out of the EU and Francois Melanchon (who looks to be the candidate of the left) also loathes the EU.

I'm not feeling the love here!

The French have always considered the EU "theirs" I think, Jean Monnet being considered the father of the EU and all that. If the penny actually drops that it is the Germans who are paying the piper and calling the tune, yes, they might fall out of love with the EU, who knows?