Changed Days

[Suff]

This Sky article would have us believe that the expedition is the first of its kind since the 1890’s.

In fact the Russians have been doing this for decades with drifting stations resupplied from the air and via nuclear powered ice breakers with helicopters.

What is so different about this science experiment is that they need to bring the ship with them, locked in the ice, because the ice is no longer stable enough, or thick enough, to support a long term drifting ice station. In decades past the Russian stations could survive multiple years before being flushed out of the Fram Strait.

In recent years though Russia has abandoned any attempt to have drifting ice stations because they have all broken up within 3-4 months. Losing the valuable instruments and scientific studies which are so sorely needed.

So now we have new drifting stations. They drift the ship which contains everything they need, fuel, housing, storage, heat, power, light. In short everything that used to sit on the ice will now sit on the ship. Which, because it floats, can’t be at risk.

Sky completely misses the fact that the very Climate Change they are going to study has made it necessary to use a ship to do the studying…

Unsurprisingly.

[Workingman]

When I was in the RAF we would get requests for certain trades to go on Polar (Arctic) expeditions in support of the scientists. Those, too, were drifting observations. Hercs were used to fly out the teams and equipment who were then left to get on with things.

Yes, the fact that they now see it necessary to have a floating station speaks volumes yet both Sky and the BBC (similar article) barely mention it. If things keep going as they are doing they might not have much ice to worry about.

[Suff]

In the days of the drifting ice stations, the average ice thickness was in the 5m-6m range. Average ice thickness barely makes it over 3m nowadays. In the days of 5m-6m average it was not unusual to see floes of 9m or more. These thicker floes were what they used for the drifting ice stations. Only abandoning them when they reached around 3m thick.

Today they struggle to find any reasonable sized floes over their minimum abandon levels. Even 4m - 5m floes can vanish in a month, with the current ice patterns and a strong melt season.

It's not really a case of "pretty soon there won't be much ice there for them". The reason for the ship is that there isn't much ice there for them. The metrics and scales and models they all use to measure impact to the Arctic are all breaking down because they rely on ice dynamics from thicker floes which simply don't exist any more. This floating observatory is vital because it needs to measure trace gasses, methane and the new ice dynamics of a thinner and more ephemeral pack.

They may have to completely re-define the mission for 2019 anyway as it is about 50:50 that the pole will go blue ocean at 90n this year. Yes there will still be ice but it will be more over towards Greenland than over the pole. Might not happen, but the signs are that it's setting up to be a real shocker of a year.

[TheOstrich]

as it is about 50:50 that the pole will go blue ocean at 90n this year.

Indeed, why bother with ice stations? Even you can do it in comfort, Suff.

"Voyage to the North Pole". You can buy a cruise from Noble Caledonia 24/06 to 07/07 on board the nuclear-powered Russian icebreaker "50 Years of Victory" - fly to Helsinki, next day fly to Murmansk, board the ship (gym, 2 saunas, swimming pool, library, max 128 passengers); on day 7 reach North Pole and disembark, champagne reception on icepack, plus barbecue and opportunity for a dip in the ocean), back via Franz Joseph Land for wildlife; Zodiac and helicopter trips. Expedition parka included and loan of waterproof boots.

Prices start from £21,495 for a standard twin cabin.

As advertised in the Sunday Times Travel Section, 19/02/17.

[Suff]

Changed days from even the largest icebreakers unable to make their way into the pack...

[Workingman]

Ossie, those cruises are indefensible.

Suff, I seem to remember us, the Canadians and the Yanks all losing kit "in the sea" during our expeditions.

Interesting contrast with the Antarctic. The RAF has a permanent posting down there due to the aircraft resupply and research needs. Ground engineers are also there for generators, heating and such like. The mantra is "Leave no footprint" meaning that what goes in comes out, and that includes our bodily unmentionables.

[Suff]

True but Antarctica is an environment which is mainly ice shelves and glaciers sitting on land. The sea ice is seasonal and virtually all vanishes each summer to recover each winter.

Totally different scenario to the Arctic. It will take a lot longer for the Antarctic stations to slide into the sea, although there is currently a problem with one of them, that has been emptied till they can move it in the spring. Due to an ice shelf which is detaching and getting ready to head off into the sea.

The arctic is the canary. When it’s dead the Antarctic will explode.