EUpps?

[Workingman]

That did not take long.

A50 letter delivered at 12:20, followed by the initial diplomatic platitudes, followed by lunch, followed by afternoon tea.

Then the gloves came off.

All the stuff we were told, advised, promised, that the EU could not do because of this, or would not do because of that, was all hot air aimed at bigging up Brexit.

Since this afternoon, though, it is becoming clearer that the EU can do this, might do that, and will do the other. What is also clear is that, behind the scenes, this has always been the EU case - some of us have been saying that.

There is obviously still a lot of goodwill between the sides, and long may it continue, but be well aware that when push comes to shove the EU has its red lines and will play hardball.

[AliasAggers]

There is obviously still a lot of goodwill between the sides, and long may it continue, but be well aware that when push comes to shove the EU has its red lines and will play hardball.

They can play it how they like. We will win.

[TheOstrich]

They have red lines, we have red lines.

But they will compromise, and we will compromise. That's in everyone's interests.

For example, both sides have said that they will work to maintain the "soft" border in Ireland.

For example, if they want £50bn to exit the monolith, then we should pay them without argument. (Worth paying to disentangle ourselves from them, in my book.)

For example, if they want British troops in Estonia, then we should bargain a suitable return concession out of them.

For example, if France wants to play hardball and move the Calais boundary back to Kent, so be it. We'll just compound the Eurostar terminal and Dover port and carry out all the necessary checks there. (And any migrants coming through on a EU country lorry will automatically lead to the seizure of the lorry and imprisonment of the driver - our rules, not EU ones)

For example, if they want a 45% tariff on British beef exports, well, we'll put a 45% tariff on EU beef imports (which wouldn't exactly do wonders for the Eire economy, would it?).

As I said, it's as much in their interests to make it work as it is in our interest. But make no mistake - there's a lot of Leavers out there (including me) who would still favour a Hard Brexit if the EU want to play it nastily, whatever the consequences.

And will someone please stomp on that "Ode to Joy" record. It's driving me nuts.

[Workingman]

They can play it how they like. We will win.

Hopefully not a pyrrhic victory!

They have red lines, we have red lines.

But they will compromise, and we will compromise. That's in everyone's interests.

On some things, yes, on others we will continue to disagree.

The thing is that there are a number of packs in play and they (think that they) hold most of the aces in all of them. That belief came out today, despite all the consolatory words.

[Suff]

Well the security information battle has already begun with a leak.

I wondered when it would occur to the EU that the vast majority of security and threat information from the UK and the US comes direct from the UK.

Hard Ball works both ways. We aren't in Schengen, don't partake in their criminal data sharing fully. But we are the source of a very large amount of their threat data.

They want €50bn, they can pay us for threat information. €50bn per year....

Of course it won't come to that initially. But the UK could also refuse to fully participate in NATO unless the rest of the EU pay their 2% dues. Which is more than €50bn per year....

Lots of pain in the near future. For everyone. But the reality is this. The 5th largest economy in the world, the 3rd most powerful military (by deliverable power) and the second most advanced intelligence agency in the world, WITH a permanent seat on the UN security council with full VETO; needs the EU a hell of a lot less than the EU needs it.

Eventually the pretenders will wake up and smell the coffee.

[Workingman]

What leak?

Oh you mean the 'leak' in the A50 letter; this leak:

Likewise, Europe’s security is more fragile today than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Weakening our cooperation for the prosperity and protection of our citizens would be a costly mistake. The United Kingdom’s objectives for our future partnership remain those set out in my Lancaster House speech of 17 January and the subsequent White Paper published on 2 February.

Sounds pretty much official, and with a warning from the UK to the EU, to me.

When it comes to hardball we only spend £60bn (€70bn) for our total defence, inc policing, per year: we are going to charge them how much?

And the NATO thing is such a straw man. Not all members of the EU are in NATO and not all members of NATO are in the EU. If NATO wants to push the 2% rule it is up to NATO to do so and has sod all to do with the EU. As for the UN, we already have an independent veto we can use at any time regardless of whether we are in the EU or not.

What I am saying, and it is being borne out by events following the trigger being pulled, is that both sides will dig their heels in. The UK will not be allowed to 'cherry pick', it will not get its own way and it will not set the agenda. The path to Brexitopia is nothing like the perfectly tarmacked fantasy super highway tale we have been fed for the past nine months.

[Suff]

I was talking about the leak which says that our Brexit negotiators are intending to use the security information the UK provides as a key negotiation pivot for the Brexit negotiations. Which David Davis has since confirmed.

Yes both sides will dig their heels in. No it won't just be the UK that suffers. Or even the UK that suffers as much.

Yes the UK trade with the EU is only a small proportion of the EU GDP. But, also, the UK trade with the EU is predominantly with the Net Contributors to the EU budget.

Fairy stories are being told on all sides. But the reality is that the UK stands less and less chance of being crippled by the application of punitive taxes than some other countries in the EU. France comes to mind.

As for that idiot Barnier going on about Nuclear fuel transport???? We reprocess 600 tonnes per year of international fuel and 1,500 tonnes per year of our own. Send it by ship, direct to Barrow, we don't care, they need to get it reprocessed. We'll get new fuel from Australia with our free trade deal. Australia, the largest market of Nuclear fuel in the world....

This posturing is sometimes vomit making.

[Workingman]

I have been watching some of the EU debate in Malta and it is clear that some leaders are not in agreement with the official line of how close and cuddly things are between the EU and UK.

It has also been revealed that May has written to big players in the EU press to, we are told, calm any fears within their populations of what Brexit might mean. It is telling she thought that she had to do that.

Then came the proposed terms of Great Repeal Bill, which is a good Bill. It gets rid of the European Communities Act, but in doing so it writes into UK law some 19,000 EU rules, regulations and laws, with only 1,000 or so up for change in the short term. Yes, those are the bad EU laws people keep banging on about in their Urban Myths.

[medsec222]

It is a pity she didn't get Nigel Farage on board right at the beginning. His knowledge of EU workings would have been invaluable in the negotiations.

[Suff]

More his knowledge of how to manipulate them medsec. There is no point in trying to work out how it is supposed to work. What actually happens is that the person with a bigger stick always wins.