More info from the EU side of the debate

[Suff]

Probably the most important reason for the 50bn cash grab attempt.

European Budget Commissioner Günther Oettinger said European countries would have to pitch in at least half of the United Kingdom’s share in the EU budget after Brexit.

The U.K. contributes more than €10 billion to the EU budget, more than all countries other than Germany.

Interesting that many people still believe that the UK rebate makes us #5 or lower. If we did not have the rebate we would be paying more than Germany with less economy. Just another view of the EU view of balance.

[Workingman]

The U.K. contributes more than €10 billion to the EU budget, more than all countries other than Germany.

The above was not made by Günther Oettinger - see Der Spiegel for details - it is by the author of the article and is (meant to be) misleading. It implies that behind Germany the UK contribution is bigger than all the other members' contributions put together. There are, in fact, nine EU members that are net contributors to the budget according to the HoC library briefing.

When it comes to the EU 'divorce bill' this paper esp pages 8-10, gives a good overview of the numbers and how they might be worked out.

The simple fact is that we did sign up for some things and we do have to pay; even the government accepts that. The problem is in disentangling ourselves as painlessly as possible: for both sides.

[Suff]

Everything we signed was signed under the auspices of the Treaty of Rome and the following treaties. They were also signed as a member of an open trade agreement and open borders agreement.

Sorry the EU Cannot cherry pick any more than we can. When the treaties are withdrawn and all the accesses to the markets are closed and our borders are closed, then all other "add ons" also go.

This is a classic case of wanting to have your cake and eat it. Except it's coming from the EU side.

Pity our government is not telling them that. Wouldn't it make such a nice irony.

[Workingman]

The government has people who know every dotted i and crossed t in all of the treaties, it also has the most authoritative legal opinion on the same and it has already agreed that there are some liabilities, but there are also assets. That is why both sides are negotiating or setting up the negotiation rules regarding them.

May made the first pitch claiming that there would be parallel talks. The EU has countered with 'divorce' first 'trade' later. What we will probably get is a bit of both so that both sides can claim the win.

[Suff]

And yes, in 2014 we were the third largest contributor at €6bn However our economy continued to grow so we will now be the second larger with circa €8bn. Hard to find the exact figures for 2016 as Brexit has taken over everything.

Although our contributions will have dropped due to the crash in the value of the £, for which the EU have a significant proportion of blame to take.

However, this is just our contributions to the budget. We contribute to other things too, which, of course, we will withdraw from. It's something I've always chafed at. The contributions are not the total net cost of the UK membership of the EU. Not by a long way.

[Suff]

Varoufakis has already come out and said that negotiations with the UK will be based on political motives and face saving and nothing to do with budgets and trade needs and common sense.

In that situation, why negotiate at all. Tell them to go shove it and wait till they recognise that their position is untenable before coming back to the table. It is the only thing the EU understands. It is something Maggie understood very well indeed.

Question is whether May has the same gumption.

[medsec222]

Theresa should walk away and let the dust settle. However there will be squawking from all directions which we will all have to put up with. Not least from Nicola, backed up by Angus

[Suff]

I just checked the EU budget figures and found an interesting thing. Nobody talks about VAT payments to the EU. 0.3% not much really is it???

Except our estimated VAT for 2016 was £120bn. 0.3%? £3.6 billion. Putting our subscription to the EU, GNI and VAT, at over £10bn...

[Suff]

Also I was reading the FT on how the "divorce" of the UK from the EU was going to be a "Lose Lose" proposition.

The FT makes the point that the EU has already lost so the UK now has to be punished to make sure the UK loses too. Some kind of insane political logic there. But to read the article it becomes a lot clearer in some areas.

The starting point is that the British are already inflicting losses on the EU through the very act of leaving. As a result, EU citizens will lose the automatic right to move to the UK, the EU will lose legal jurisdiction in Britain and it will lose a substantial contributor to its budget. The EU will also lose face. And, if things really go wrong, the EU could lose its very existence, as other nations follow Britain out of the door.

Faced with all these losses, actual and potential, the EU is determined that Britain must suffer more than the organisation it is leaving.

And most telling.

This is seen as a matter of justice and of survival. If Britain does not suffer visibly from leaving the EU, why should other countries stay? And why should Britain be allowed to keep all the benefits of EU membership while sloughing off the costs and responsibilities?

Then they start following the "project fear" line.

Second, this is not a negotiation between equals: the UK is far more dependent on trade with the EU than the other way around.

OK so let's see how this works.

Net contributors to the EU by size, Germany, Britain, France, Netherlands, Italy, Belgium.

Note Spain is a net recipient to the tune a little over €1bn.

Who, in the EU, exports most to the UK?

Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands.

So, If I'm getting my facts right, the budget of the EU is not only screwed by losing the UK income, but, if the EU starts becoming really hardline, becomes even more screwed as the economies which pay into the EU budget (precious few), are impacted by the loss of trade with the UK.

UK has more to lose than the EU? Somehow I don't think so. The EU is running a colossal bluff and it's our time to call it.

Of course there is also the whole self harm thing. Had the EU stepped even one inch towards Cameron in giving the UK what it needed, to lessen the pain it already felt from being a member of the EU, then none of this would be happening. The EU claims it has been "hurt" by the UK leaving. In truth the EU hurt itself and forced the UK out of the EU by being so intransigent.

Then they have the cast iron NERVE to tell the UK that it has to be "punished" because it's leaving. Forgetting, totally, that Cameron told them all, in no uncertain terms, that if the EU did not bend just a little, that he would have to call the referendum and that he might lose the fight.

It's about time the real truth came out here.

There is so much said about the "lies" of the Leave camp and how they misled the people. Really? I'm still waiting for the "truths" of the Remain camp to make themselves evident. You know the crashing of the economy, disastrous budget, massive intervention, punitive budgets to make our lives harder. Yeah all that stuff they sold the people on. Not lies at all. No, real truth.