Looking through the spin.

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Looking through the spin.

Postby Suff » 27 Jul 2017, 14:05

I have been reading the independent's scare story about how the UK trade deal talks may be put back by two months.

I'm not overly interested in that, it is about the only stick they have to play and, to their intense frustration, it's not playing the way they thought it would. Bit of reality coming home to roost on the EU side? Hadn't quite worked out that >50% of exports outside the EU means the UK can focus on other issues than trade and "take the hit" if we need to?

But, anyway. When you get back to the actual article and under the spin, some things stand out very clearly.

While there has been no official figure on the financial settlement, some estimates have placed the bill as 100bn euros. So far, the European Commission’s Brexit taskforce has not requested a certain figure – and Britain has not offered one.


So, had you been casting a weary eye over the press over the last 6 months you might just have noticed that the EU is demanding that the UK "settle their accounts", before leaving the EU.

Now I don't know about you, but I've never been in the habit of signing a blank cheque. Just what have the EU been doing for the last year with all those thousands of reams of paper they have been generating to be "totally prepared" for the UK leaving? They don't even have a figure for us to say yes or no to.

Reading a touch further, Barnier let's his frustration show a bit more.

Laying bare his frustration that the UK was not accepting its “accounts must be settled,” he added: “As soon as the UK is ready to clarify the nature of its commitments, we will be prepared to discuss this with the British negotiators.”


Now that same weary eye would have noticed that it was the EU demanding that the UK had "commitments", whereas the UK said it had none, however it might be willing to fund some things in order to facilitate a trade deal.

If I had spent a whole year telling the world that the UK had "commitments", with a team of 50 people documenting this "commitment", I would not be asking the UK to "clarify the nature of their commitment", I would be telling them what it was.

Reading the next paragraph, we learn that

“I know one has to compromise in negotiations but we are not there yet,” he added. “That’s the financial settlement, let’s be very clear. We want clarity on that because we need to be able to work more until we come to areas of compromise.”


Let me clarify that one. The EU, having spent a whole year telling the whole world that the UK has "commitments" and must settle the bill before we can talk trade, requires the UK to tell them what those commitments are before they are willing to negotiate on them.

Great. Let us take another situation where we create a commitment. Let's go to a restaurant and commit to eating the food. Once we have eaten the food, the owner comes with the bill and it says "tell me how much you owe and we'll talk about how much you pay".

Now, let me see.

I'll bid nothing, what do you bid and how do you justify that the meal you gave me was worth more???


The EU has a lesson to learn here. It has spent decades being told what people want from it and then saying "No that's not good enough". The only reason that the EU wants the UK to set a figure is so that they can immediately come back and hang another figure on the agreed commitment.

What is going on right now is that the UK are insisting that the EU:

List the items they want paid for
List the justification for that payment

Once the EU has done that, then the UK will subject that claim for legality, validity and the sniff test of larceny and then tell the EU whether it is acceptable or not. The UK will then tell the EU how much they owe the UK for our shares of the infrastructure they have built with our contributions. I expect that the EU are choking on that one given that the UK has been, for most of it's membership, the second largest net contributor so will have the second largest ownership, by value, of the EU infrastructure.

What is going on right now is the same thing that happens in all negotiations. If one party wants something, then the other party will analyse what they want and decide whether it is justified or not. Then the haggling can begin. The fact that the EU has not even stated what it wants, means that negotiations cannot begin.

The UK, on the other hand has stated very clearly what it wants. Controlled borders with the EU, no intervention from the ECJ, a free trade deal.

The EU wants open borders, ECJ judgements for EU citizens living in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU and they want us to pay some undisclosed exit penalty for an undisclosed number of years.

The talks are stalled? Really, why would I have ever guessed that?

Everyone thinks that David Davis is bluffing when he says that the UK will walk if the EU doesn't start being reasonable. Apparently nobody believes him.

Would you move your home to a new area then give the keys to the home, with a signed blank chequebook on the kitchen counter, to the old area manager????

This is what is being demanded. Then the press, like the Independent, make some big song and dance about how the UK is being unreasonable.

Time to ask the question just one more time. What _have_ the EU negotiators been doing for the last year. Everyone says they are far more organised than the UK negotiators, yet they can't come up with one single simple figure for the UK to agree, or not, as the case may be.

Fortunately our negotiators are far more able than the Greeks!
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Re: Looking through the spin.

Postby Workingman » 27 Jul 2017, 14:47

Or we can have the short version....

Brexit negotiations are not going well. The EU is in the driving seat, as was always the case. All sorts of UK institutions, from the CBI, IOD, and Joe's greasy spoon cafe on Skid Row, want our government to come clean. Oh yes, and Leavers will take any and every opportunity to dis the EU and talk up our position - assuming we have one.

Ah well, only 20 more months of this crap to put up with, then we will know for sure.
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Re: Looking through the spin.

Postby medsec222 » 27 Jul 2017, 18:02

Let's have an even shorter version - goodbye :D
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Re: Looking through the spin.

Postby Suff » 27 Jul 2017, 19:44

Workingman wrote:Ah well, only 20 more months of this crap to put up with, then we will know for sure.


Indeed. However whilst it's going on I do like to take a few pokes at the things being said. I always felt that if you say something worthy of ridicule, don't be offended when someone ridicules it. That applies to me as much as anyone else.

I have had to listen, for months, about the government being on the hook for payments to the EU after Brexit. Why? Because the EU says so. Then I see a Remainer press article telling me that the EU negotiator is moaning that the UK won't tell him what the Brexit bill is going to be and, oh, by the way, we, the EU, haven't told them what we think it is.

If he doesn't want to be ridiculed, then stop making himself ridiculous.
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Re: Looking through the spin.

Postby Workingman » 27 Jul 2017, 21:35

Au contraire.

Brexit has no comprehensive plan. Brexit never had a comprehensive plan. Brexit had no form and still has no form. Brexit was never defined in the referendum with regards to what it would look like or how it would work. It was an idea, and around that idea was built a narrative without substance. The Leave version won the vote based on their dreams; that does not make it the only or perfect version... and certainly not the best one.

What we now have is the real world and Leavers trying to give us a Brexit, but one built on their own terms. What they do not like is how the other side is behaving, and that probably goes both ways, so tough, hard lines. Suck it up Leavers, because there is not a damned thing you can do about it.

We Remainers have been told time after time to "shut it, you lost". OK, Leavers, give us your perfect version of Brexit, the one you all agree on. What? You do not have one. Quelle surprise!
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Re: Looking through the spin.

Postby Suff » 27 Jul 2017, 22:47

Most interesting is that the EU appears not to have a plan either. After all that news and all that noise and all those documents and all those signatures, they don't have a plan.

Otherwise they would have published it and everyone would be able to monitor the UK governments Brexit performance against it wouldn't they??

Remainers demand a plan from the UK for Brexit.

Yet the EU, who didn't have an election did not have a leader who stood down, didn't have a leadership challenge and had created a team before the UK even knew they were going to trigger A50; have not submitted their plan for Brexit either.

We are told the EU is prepared and the UK Brexit are a shambles.

We are told the UK is a shambles because they have not presented a plan for the people to agree.

By the same logic, the EU is also a shambles. So why should we be beating up the UK and those delivering Brexit any more than we are beating up the EU (something not being done in the press at all), if the only measure of preparedness and quality is that we showed all our cards in the Brexit poker match at the outset and then pleaded for the EU to be lenient.

By that measure the EU has less negotiators (so much so that they are struggling to keep the EU27 informed), appear to have no plan (they have not given anyone one) and are winging it even more badly than the UK is.

Fair is fair. If we're going to hold the UK to one standard then we also hold the EU to it too.

The remainers want to know what the UK is going to deliver in Brexit? That is very simple and very logical. The best deal that gets the UK out of the EU without being permanently shafted and crippled.

You do not get that deal by telling everyone what you want and then begging for mercy. You get that deal by putting a knife to the throat of the EU and inviting them to capitulate.

The longer this goes on, the stronger the UK hand will be. Already the EU27 "solid front" is starting to waver. Those who see the most to lose are starting to get itchy feet, they are starting to make noises and they have the political clout to be heard.

If Barnier doesn't start trade talks by December, he's going to find himself in the middle of his own personal night of the long knives and it's not going to be pretty.

All the UK needs to do is stand firm and not take any crap from the EU.

Standing firm does not include admitting liability for EU wish lists, putting a unilateral price on an EU idea of debt nor accepting EU blackmail demands.

As far as I'm concerned, the UK is doing just fine in the Brexit negotiations. Long may it continue.
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Re: Looking through the spin.

Postby medsec222 » 28 Jul 2017, 06:57

Perhaps it is lurid headlines once again, but Brussels are saying no talks on trade deal until the UK prove they are willing to pay their divorce bill. This is blackmail and another good reason why the UK should leave this self serving money grabbing EU machine.
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Re: Looking through the spin.

Postby Kaz » 28 Jul 2017, 08:54

Workingman wrote:Au contraire.

Brexit has no comprehensive plan. Brexit never had a comprehensive plan. Brexit had no form and still has no form. Brexit was never defined in the referendum with regards to what it would look like or how it would work. It was an idea, and around that idea was built a narrative without substance. The Leave version won the vote based on their dreams; that does not make it the only or perfect version... and certainly not the best one.

What we now have is the real world and Leavers trying to give us a Brexit, but one built on their own terms. What they do not like is how the other side is behaving, and that probably goes both ways, so tough, hard lines. Suck it up Leavers, because there is not a damned thing you can do about it.

We Remainers have been told time after time to "shut it, you lost". OK, Leavers, give us your perfect version of Brexit, the one you all agree on. What? You do not have one. Quelle surprise!


Hear, hear! They don't have a clue, the uncertainty is palpable!
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Re: Looking through the spin.

Postby victor » 28 Jul 2017, 10:10

I thought right from the start that the "leaving" campaign never had a plan ,they just thought voting out was all that had to be done and it would happen overnight,whereas they do not appear to have a clue what to do.
all a bit of a mucking fuddle
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Re: Looking through the spin.

Postby Workingman » 28 Jul 2017, 10:43

I see the Brextlines and I hear the wails and moans from Leavers that the other side is not playing fair, and it's all dummies and toys out the cot. There are more of them today, but I moved on:

"Girl run over while reading road safety tips on smartphone - exclusive!" Much more informative.
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