Mixed messages.

[Suff]

But if reunification ever becomes a strong possibility Osc, wouldn't it be politically nigh on impossible for any Irish government to turn it down? Regardless of the financial penalty?

That was the situation with Germany when the wall came down. The cost of unification was horrific, but the political consequences of not trying were so high that nobody ever considered continuing the partition after the USSR and the DDR fell apart.

There was a point in time when the former DDR had the most advanced digital telephone exchange in the world. Why? Because the 1930's telephone system which still existed and had never been upgraded (Good soviet citizens did not need telephones), had to be ripped out in totality and so they replaced it with state of the art Siemens kit.

These kinds of decision transcend normal economic processes.

[Suff]

In addition to my previous comment, WM, you might want to go and look at the comments of Elmar Brok. Who is saying exactly what I repeated.

The EU Parliament is demanding that either the UK remains in the customs union or Ireland suffers customs checks when their goods touch the EU. This can be a border between NI or a border at the other EU countries. No border in NI will force all Irish shipments to be inspected, when they touch another EU country, to ensure it is not UK goods being "reloaded" onto Irish carriers or routed through Irish companies.

As for all those sea routes? Ireland does less than half it's trade with the EU once the UK leaves. Irish trade is smaller than Scotland. There is simply not enough volume of trade to guarantee a large increase in shipping direct to the EU and, even then, the goods will be checked without a hard border in place with NI.

This is reality. The backstop is fantasy, no party will support it and the DUP will sink it. Ireland is heading for border checks with the EU and there is very little that I can see which will change that. Had Varadkar got behind the technical solutions at the outset, instead of demanding a fairy story, we might be in a very different place. But he did not and we are not.

I keep on reiterating that the EU do not understand the UK. They believe that our politics is in such disarray that they can just make any old demand they want and it will happen.

I repeat, for the EU to digest, the UK is not Greece and you treat the UK like Greece at your peril.

[Suff]

Well at least someone is aware of the current situation.

With just 50 days until Brexit, you might expect that both sides would be going at negotiations hammer and tongs to get a deal, but the reality is that Brexit has now reached a political impasse.

This is no longer about technical negotiations (we had two solid years of those) but about the belief on both sides that the other is failing to confront the hard political choices that the reality of Brexit presents.

Great, the EU thinks they can just keep on telling the UK what they want and expect the UK to just sign off on it. Well, why not, that's been going on for 46 years in a large part. Only minor exceptions have ever been allowed the UK and that is the way the whole Brexit deal has gone.

On the UK side the UK thinks that May is an idiot who just agreed to "terms" which nobody wants because she couldn't be bothered to try and get something else. So the UK parliament knows that they are not going to give the EU what they want and so, won't vote for it. The UK parliament think that both May and the EU are trying to pull the wool over their eyes.

This is going to make a phenomenal case study for international relations students some day. A case study of how not to negotiate an exit from quasi Union of states..

50 more days. I need more sleep, they can just keep doing this and I'll doze off.

[Workingman]

German unification is miles away from a united Ireland, like comparing chalk and cheese.

After World War II the defeated German Reich was divided by the victors into the Federal Republic (West) and the Democratic Republic (East) and both were recognised as separate countries by the UN in 1949.

With the fall of the USSR reunification became possible. Yes it was going to be expensive and, yes, it would be politically difficult, but it was the rebuilding of a country divided by war.

I see that German MEP Elmar Blok has an opinion on how the EU's external border might work. It is not EU policy and he fails to mention the treaty amendments that would have to be made to accommodate it. Ireland would definitely object and so could others such as Malta, Cyprus and Greece.

There is no reason for Irish goods to be checked at EU ports any more than there is for goods from Malta or Cyprus.Third country goods can be cheched in Ireland prior to shipment - that is if shipment is to be allowed.

Ireland currently uses the UK as a land-bridge to the EU. Of about 475.000 movements per year across the Irish sea some 190,000 pass through to the EU. When it comes to the direct sea route Luxembourg-based company, CLdN, has just introduced two huge new freight ferries on the direct routes from Dublin to Rotterdam and Zeebrugge. The new ferries are the largest short-sea Ro-Ro vessels in the world, and can carry 650 cargo units on each voyage. The capacity is there.

This is going to make a phenomenal case study for international relations students some day. A case study of how not to negotiate an exit from quasi Union of states.

It sure will. It will show that the UK failed to fully engage for 46 years. It will show that the UK media was relentless in promoting negative myths and legends about the EU. It will show that of all the rules, regs and laws that we adhere to the UK was with the majority in 95% of cases, lost 2% and abstained 3%. Very few things were ever "imposed" upon the UK. We never lost our sovereignty and we could have used the EU's FOM rules more vigorously than we did to control immigration.

What will be held up as a cast-iron certainty is that the way Brexit has been handled is not the way to do things.

[Suff]

What will be held up as a cast-iron certainty is that the way Brexit has been handled is not the way to do things.

Well it's better than Yugoslavia for sure and better than the attempt of the American Civil War. But still not stellar.

The two new ferries are interesting, if they produce 300 trips per year it will about do it. That is not certain though. With a route of this length, it would normally require a fleet of 4 - 6 ships to allow servicing interval and allow for failures. I would expect 3-4 crossings a week with only 2 ships and that won't cover it. Then there is the cost. The routes from Sweden and Norway, to the UK, were dropped due to cost and take up. The UK, at the time, would facilitate UK and Irish traffic and the ferry came in at Newcastle which was more useful for Ireland. Too expensive and trucks went the land route.

A point to mention. Greece, Cyprus and Malta do not have unmonitored borders with free flow of business. The UK is 16% of Irish trade, it will not be easy, without checks, to ensure that nobody is systematically taking advantage. These countries are nothing like the UK and Ireland.

Finally no treaties will have to be changed if Irish trucks transit the UK. That is already included and there are border checks. If the UK is able to transit Ireland then border checks will also have to happen, without a treaty change, because Ireland will not be controlling their border. There is provision for that in the treaties.

[Osc]

Had Varadkar got behind the technical solutions at the outset, instead of demanding a fairy story, we might be in a very different place. But he did not and we are not.

What technical solutions would that be, ones operated by unicorns? I have a perfect solution to the whole problem - get out a thesaurus, find a different word for backstop, put it into a slightly different sentence...none of the idiots in the British government will notice - job done! I am very proud of Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney for their continued composure and dignity in the face of some pretty appalling interviews and commentary by British media. Good old colonialist attitudes are very near the surface with many in the UK, I have seen so much astonishingly ignorant and bigoted stuff in recent weeks. This is BRITAIN'S problem, Ireland is being made a scapegoat for the terrible incompetence of so many in Westminster.

[Kaz]

Well said Osc, it's disgraceful x

[Workingman]

You know what, Osc, I am beginning to fancy going "home" to the land of my grandmother and my cousins the Gallaghers, O'Briens and McBrides. My daughter has made it clear that she is never coming back to the UK. And when my DiL completes her Phd she and Michael could well leave for Canada or Aus / NZ.

I really could be tempted by a little plot out the south west way where I could run a few hens, grow some decent veg and brew my own beer as I see out my days. The simple life would suit me down to the ground.

See my other thread for more reasons.

[Suff]

This is BRITAIN'S problem, Ireland is being made a scapegoat for the terrible incompetence of so many in Westminster.

Osc, normally I would let that go and just ignore it.

But that is a direct challenge.

The UK is 16% of all Irish trade. Today that is in the EU. in 49 days that trade will be outside the EU. It will tip the balance of trade, not just exports as it is in the UK, but all trade, over the 50% line and Ireland will be trading mainly outside of the EU.

Of course it is a problem for Ireland and neither Ireland nor the EU is owning up to it. No other country in the EU will be in the same situation as Ireland, when the UK leaves, namely that it will have an open land border with a non EU member where any attempt to close that border could cause significant problems, both political and with physical violence.

The UK simply CANNOT solve this on their own, they must have the help of the EU and Ireland itself.

That help has consisted of "You can leave the EU but you can't leave the customs union because it causes a problem". That is not help, that is helping yourself at the detriment of the UK.

At the rate it is going, the UK is going to bang out of the EU without a deal. Why no deal? Because both Ireland and the EU insist that the UK remain in the customs union or divide NI from the UK. This is not just unacceptable to the DUP, this is unacceptable to every political party in the UK (including the Tories), plus more than half the UK voters.

I don't normally like being this blunt with someone I like but the situation is this. We are going to bang out of the EU, the trade we do over the NI/Ireland border is completely insignificant to the UK, because Ireland is about the size of Wales and it would be like losing something like 10% of wales trade. Not painless but certainly quite doable given that Wales is only 3.3% of UK GDP. It would be like losing 0.33% of UK GDP. Or, in other words, about the variation we see on a year anyway.

On the other hand Ireland is going to be in a serious situation. Ireland is still in the process of reducing the debt as a % of GDP and is doing really well, however if 16% of the trade is endangered and some 48% is made more difficult with border checks, that is going to come to a screaming halt.

Not one bit if which is the problem of the UK. It is a problem for Ireland and if your politicians, the EU, the parliament and your PM are telling you something different, I'd be having words with them.

Can I be more clear? We are leaving, the EU and Ireland are trying to derail that to ensure that Ireland doesn't see the full impact of that exit. That intransigence is going to go to the wire and probably end up damaging Ireland more than any other possible solution.

Why should I care? Well I shouldn't but I do. When I try to mention it I'm told that I'm being unreasonable and outrageous and that Ireland is pure white clean and it is nothing to do with them.

Well it's only 49 days. We shall see. Perhaps some form of "backstop" will be voted on in the end. But I wouldn't put a bet on it. I have patience, I can wait.

[Osc]

Do you not agree that there is enormous incompetence? Latest example - that "shipping company" with no ships and terms and conditions copied and pasted from a pizza delivery website (but no doubt with connections to high ups in the government) awarded a huge contract which has now been cancelled because, irony of ironies, the IRISH company which was to supply ships has withdrawn. To the outside world, Brexit is the most gawd almighty mess accompanied by ignorance and prejudice.

You say the UK cannot solve this on their own - but why should anyone help them? They want Brexit, and have no problem insulting and denigrating Ireland and the EU, but then expect them to turn around and sort out the shambles they (UK) have created. There is no point trying to blind me with figures, they just make my eyes glaze over, but are you saying that the UK will have none of these problems post-Brexit?