Iran

[cromwell]

Now the US has killed an Iranian general via drone strike, are we getting close to a serious escalation of violence in the Middle East?

[Kaz]

Yes, I think so

[Workingman]

Iran has military units and also well-trained and armed militias in Iraq and Syria. It has allies in Lebanon, Hezbollah, in Gaza, Hamas, and in Yemen, the Houthi and other rebels. Qatar is a silent ally, but strategic.

Within that ring the US has a carrier group in the Gulf as well as forces in Kuwait, Saudi. Iraq, Syria and Jordan. Then there is the big prize - Israel.

Iran can, and probably will, retaliate by following Solemani's own doctrine of a series sideswipes at US and its allies rather than a full-frontal attack. When, where and with how much force is anyone's guess.

[cromwell]

Thing is, Donald Trump isn't the diplomatic type. If Iran hit back, so will he. Plus he will have the Saudis egging him on as well.

[Workingman]

Donald Trump isn't the diplomatic type. If Iran hit back, so will he.

Hence the Quds not going for traditional military options and instead using civil disobedience and paramilitary guerrilla attacks on 'soft' strategic targets and infrastructure. Hit and run and blend back in.

Also the Saudis would be well advised not to do too much shouting from the bleachers... they are no match for the Iranians. It would be best for them to leave the big stuff to the Yanks.

[Kaz]

Please God we don't get dragged into it! Although Boris will more than likely be Trump's poodle...

[Workingman]

News coming out of Iran from Ukrainian investigators is that the missile which brought down the 737 passenger plane exploded under the cockpit. If true this raises very awkward questions.

A bog-standard surface to air missile (SAM) - a heat seeker - would have targeted the engines. That it did not implies that it was guided in some way, and that raises the question of how a plane could be 'mistaken' for a cruise missile.

737 variants come in different sizes of wingspan and fuselage length, but generally they fly in something like a 35m x 35m 'window'. Cruise missiles also vary but most are long and thin and would fit in a window of about 10m x 1m. Planes have noisy transponders pinging out all sorts of flight, altitude and position information. Cruise missiles by their very nature and for obvious reasons are 'quiet' in order to be undetected.

The current Iranian explanation does not add up and it looks as though the Iranian people recognise this.

[cromwell]

It doesn't add up at all. How can you mistake a massive Boeing airliner with flashing lights on it for a cruise missile?