Wuhan virus.

[Suff]

The biggest question right now is whether the proposed safeguards are enough.

If they are not, then the isolation centres can, themselves, be a source of the virus and people who are deemen uninfected can be spreading.

[Kaz]

They've flown the Brits straight into Boscombe Down, the germ warfare place. Why they couldn't have done it sooner, I don't know

[Workingman]

Because our government is useless. A plane, and it did not have to be a Jumbo for 32 people, should have been on the tarmac ready to bring them home the minute their ship based quarantine period was over.

They now have to spend another 14 days in quarantine, as do all the others repatriated to different countries around the world, and that suggests to me that global authorities are not overly convinced that an initial 14 days is long enough. 11 of those on the American flight (originally reported as 14) were only discovered to be infected once in the air and after undergoing the prescribed period of quarantine.

We now learn that the number of those infected in S. Korea more than doubled in one day. It has done similar in Japan and Iran, though from much lower base numbers. The UN and individual governments will be putting those places under the microscope while also looking for signs elsewhere.

The virus is obviously extremely virulent with the only upside being that it is no more of a killer than some common strains of flu, except that we do not have a vaccine.

[Suff]

On the jumbo for 32 people, it depends on whether they wanted to keep the 2m spacing per person. Also the Jumbo would allow total segregation between flight crew, medics and the passengers through the upper deck.

Whilst it seems like a waste, the only other plane with equivalent capabilities is a 380 and that would have been a waste.

As for South Korea, that is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. Too many primary infections in one go.

It appears, by the way it is spreading, that everyone infected is transmitting without any symptoms at all. Once the symptoms show it is already too late to quarantine.

Only the total self isolation, seen in China, with absolute minimum contact and always protected, is the only way to stop this.

But who has the guts to shut down global commerce and global flights, for a month?

As you say WM, it appears to only be as bad as real flu, but flu is the largest killer we have and, as you say, we have no vaccine. Yet.

I was reading, recently (within the last 3 years or so), that we were well overdue a pandemic and that only modern medicine was holding one at bay.

We shall see how modern medicine fares with a pandemic. Certainly it will not be as bad as the Spanish flu. We have the ability to support the body fluids whether or not the person can drink and that is half the battle.

[Workingman]

This week looks as though it could be a turning point. Italy, Iran and S. Korea are big worries and now a hotel in Tenerife is in lockdown since a visitor from Lombardy, Italy became ill and tested positive. The big worry for the WHO is it getting into the wild in sub-Saharan Africa since a case was reported in Egypt.

[victor]

And how many has that Italian been in contact with and where are THEY now?

[Suff]

The $64,000 question.

If we were to treat it like Flu, then probably hundreds to thousands.

[Workingman]

I see people are now asking why not treat it like flu. Their argument is that it is not that much more deadly than some seasonal flu strains; it is something I have also pointed out. What they are also arguing is that if it is allowed to go wild then more of us will build up immunity, and that is also true.

However, what they forget is how virulent it is, many more times so than the flu. The numbers catching it, and therefore the numbers becoming critically ill, will overwhelm even the most efficient health services worldwide. The mortality rate will go up, but even then it is unlikely to get anywhere near that of Spanish Flu in 1918. So far, so bad yet still so good(ish).

But, and it is a big 'but', it has not yet mutated or known to have. The fear of that happening, combined with it running its course in the wild, is almost certainly why the authorities are determined to keep it under control as best they can, hence all the lockdowns and quarantines.

Rumours are that the Chinese have a proto vaccine, one that appears to work on some people. If that truly is the case then we could see the suspension of normal protocols for trials on humans, as was the case with Ebola.

It is stil to early to let it (deliberately) run its course, but that might eventually happen no matter what we do.

[saundra]

So what happens now it's in a hotel in Tenerife and one Italian doctor testing positive
But of course uk information says they can cope with this virus
Think they had better think again with holiday makers coming home because if people feel ok they will be back to work and shopping a nightmare can't see many self isolation

[TheOstrich]

Big notice on our Surgery door ---

Coronavirus - if you've just come back from abroad, and have any of (a) headache (b) fever (c) cough …..

DO NOT ENTER THIS BUILDING.

Go home, call 111

My S reports the big QE Hospital in Birmingham now has a dedicated entrance (next door to A&E) for Coronavirus referrals. So they are gearing up for it.