Wuhan virus.

[cromwell]

Recent events have upset me. Like Ossie, I'm in two minds about government action. On the one hand they have to go with the medical experts but on the other, how do you "delay" this virus? And yes, Johnson's comments will only encourage doom, panic and hysteria.
The selfishness of the panic buyers is a long way from "keep calm and carry on" and encouraging it is the last thing we need.

[JoM]

I was expecting more to be done. I was reading earlier about the Czech Republic and was quite amazed by the lengths they're going to. Whether it'll do any good remains to be seen.

They've declared a 30 day State of Emergency despite having, when I read earlier, less than 100 confirmed cases. Amongst the measures being taken are curfews on restaurants and bars etc, school closures, and we're one of 15 nations banned from entering the country (and they've placed restrictions on their people traveling to those), museums, libraries, sports facilities etc are closed for the duration. No gatherings of over 30 people.

[JoM]

As for this 'delay', isn't it just more a matter of spreading it out over several months rather than have a peak of cases? (I'll admit to only half listening while making dinner).

I was trying to be positive and think/hope that a month or so and it'd start to die down and we could start to get back to normal but this just prolongs the uncertainty.

[cromwell]

It prolongs the agony doesn't it? And yes Jo, I think the delay is just to try to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed.
Because the new PFI hospitals built in the UK over the last 20 or so years have fewer beds than the old hospitals they replaced. We now have many fewer beds than France or Germany.
I think I'm going to do some panic buying myself tomorrow - the whole of the wine and spirits aisle at Sainsbury's.
Being blotto for the next three months or so seems a pretty good idea to me.

[Workingman]

Is there any way to beat this?

I don't think there is and I also do not think that there is anything like "best practice / science". Different places are trying different things and getting different results - it's a lottery. Whatever we do it will run its course and only then will we have an idea who got it (nearly) right. My bet is that we will be way down the list.

I was very unimpressed by the Chief Medical Officer who was asked about Germany and it's expected 70% (?) infection rate. He said that we did not speculate and then went out of his way to say that our rate of 80% was "worse case" but it could be 50% or even 20%, A bit later he said that although the official infections were at 496 there could be up to 10,000.

So, we definitely do not speculate, we just guess.

As for the peak. Why put it off or attempt to, why not just go with it and let it happen and have done? Don't give me the BS of allowing the NHS to cope. With the supposed figures it never will cope regardless of when the peak comes.

[TheOstrich]

As an aside, an interesting development in Birmingham this evening. This is from the website of one of the largest Anglican churches in the City …...

I’m writing to inform you that we are suspending our Sunday worship gatherings along with all our other medium and small sized gatherings, with immediate effect and until further notice.
The decision has not been taken lightly; the senior leadership team and churchwardens have been in touch throughout the day considering the right way ahead. [The Vicar] has also been in touch with the Archdeacon, who understands our particular situation and is supportive of our decision. It may seem slightly premature to take this action, but, having weighed all the information available, we decided that though this was the cautious approach, it is the right and responsible action to take. Our expert medical advice was to act sooner rather than later, this also appears to be endorsed by the actions of the Republic of Ireland to close schools and colleges and also that indoor gatherings of more than 100 people should be cancelled as of tomorrow. It is vitally important that we do all we can to slow the spread of this virus and protect, as far as is possible, the health of ourselves and those around us.
We wanted to let you know as soon as possible about this decision. The leaders of other [the Church's] ministries and activities will be in touch shortly to let you know what is happening.
We are still planning and working out the details on how we can best support our community during this period. One of these will be to provide resources for prayer, but in the meantime, continue to pray for our leaders, health care professionals and all at the frontline in managing this crisis.

So much for Boris's approach, then ......

[cromwell]

My thoughts exactly WM. Que sera sera, let's get it over with.

[Kaz]

Ossie, I agree! What Boris said about us all losing loved ones was incredibly irresponsible! The man's a fool, and not at all what the country needs in a crisis

[Workingman]

Cromwell, there is modelling showing that this first peak is only temporary and that the virus will float about till next winter when it really will peak. It is based on the behaviour of known seasonal coronaviruses such as flu.

Is it 'best science' or just speculation? If it is the first the Chief Medical Officer should sit up and take notice. If it is the latter he should ignore it and give us his best guess.

Ossie, I have to say that the Church's action seems wise given that any congregation will be mostly populated by the older end of the spectrum - the most at risk group. Sod Bojo and the two tweedles.

[saundra]

I'm honestly absolutely freaking out because I'm one of those (loved ones)

That might die I just keep thinking when is it going to happen
Because the nhs will never be ready they can't cope in the best of times rant over xx