Wuhan virus.

[Suff]

Next issue. Our son in Argentina has lost his job after 2 days, the country is in lockdown, his passport has expired and Western Union has stopped allowing transfers unless you have a valid identity document. He is running out of money, moving hostels almost daily and I might have to get money to him through someone he arrived with (Israeli). Although he is due some back pay, if he can get it.

He is 1,000 miles from Buenos Aires and the country is on lockdown. No busses, trains or planes internally and the Police/Army are stopping personal vehicles from travelling within the country.

I'm now talking to the UK embassy in Argentina to find out if we can get him emergency travel documents digitally. One saving grace is that he is local to an airport with International flights. Twice the price of getting him out of BA, but, still, worth the problem.

About 20 years ago he had to have a series of operations on his lungs. Whilst it doesn't impact his normal day to day life, if he gets the virus he'll be in trouble. Without job, money or, soon, accommodation, things may go south fast as healthcare in Argentina is paid for.

Just another day in the life of 2020. This year really sucks so far.

[Kaz]

Oh goodness, such a worry for you! I hope he's home safe asap!

[cromwell]

Crikey Suff, what a time you're having.
Good luck with it; I hope you can help your lad out.

[Workingman]

I have been thinking about this.

We are currently focusing on the elderly, vulnerable and infirm to the almost exclusion of everyone and everything else. It is a noble thing to do, but is it right?

The result of what we are doing is hurting the economy and businesses large and small. That in turn will hurt people's livelihoods and their health, both physical and mental. The number of unemployed could reach numbers never seen before and that could lead to the breakdown of our society. We really could see people starving. There might not be enough taxes coming in to pay them enough in benefits to keep them alive. Inflation could get to unimaginable levels. One thing is for sure and that is we cannot keep on going the way we are.

So, maybe it is time to reassess.

It could be that we have to manage this virus in two phases. In the first we do what we are doing now, but for a time limited period to try to minimise the damage. In the second phase we relax most rules and let the virus run while keeping it closely monitored. By that time we will have built up partial herd immunity and also be on the way to a vaccine. We could also hope that the virus follows the general pattern and mutates into a weaker version. Many of us will die regardless of how we handle things, well we wil all die anyway, so maybe there is a case of keeping the agony as short as possible in order to make the recovery for those who do survive that bit easier.

Just thoughts, nothing else.

Suff, I for one, understand. If he can't get out can he hunker down in an uninfected area for a while? Whatever happens he is going to need some financial support, as I well know with my daughter.

[Suff]

Thanks everyone. The embassy is on it now. Also I've been talking to him via WhatsApp and he's going to shake the tree and see if he can get a ride with someone going home to BA. He is virtually native Spanish speaking so that will help. Apparently people are allowed to travel home and if we can get him to the Embassy I can get him flown out early next week.

Here's hoping he can get a lift.

WM, we are on the same page about kids in danger. At least you can send money, for me it has become pretty difficult as his passport is now required to be valid to accept Western Union. It expired in 2006 and I've been nagging him about it for years.

Also WM, I get what you are saying about the economy, protecting society and taking a line which is very hard to accept. Since WW2 we have become complacent as a society, expecting that very little will ever change and that very little bad will happen barring accidents and serious illnesses which still don't have a cure.

This virus is a wake up call. Bad stuff happens and we are not shielded from it. People are going to die and there is not one single thing we can do about it. Italy is already in that mode, so many are dying because Triage says that the resources will go to those who still contribute, financially and physically, to society. Yes those of advanced age still contribute their knowledge and experience to society and it will be a lot less rich without them. But they can't keep it going and they can't succour the next two generations. Harsh but there it is. Italy is faced with it and doing it.

At some point this may come to us all. Close to every country in the world is infected. Within the next few weeks I expect that will become all countries in the world. When it becomes everyone for themselves, things will drop to a new low.

Italy may be a bellwether for how bad it can be, but Spain is on that chute right now too. Germany may be low in deaths, but they continue to report more deaths than serious cases. With 18,000 people infected, this can't continue. Although they are very compliant and generally pretty sober citizens. So expect the aged to stay at home and ride it out.

I do worry for #1 son and his wife. They are police officers. On the front line, on shift work and the shops are stripped before they get off shift.

I am forever amazed at people who rush to the shops expecting eggs day after day when the shelves have been stripped. Maybe people don't know that chickens don't just start laying more eggs because the people in the UK are acting like headless brethren???

Ah well. There is a toilet awaiting my attention to ensure it is no longer leaking. I fitted it so it is my fault.... Hopefully all my plumbing stuff is enough to sort it, because there is no way of getting more, the shops are shut.

[Suff]

Just for reference,

This is how it is going..



Up to the 4th of March it was all about China, Japan and South Korea. After that, everyone else.

Doesn't look like they are in control does it?

[Workingman]

I see that The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has just released a statement basically going with something similar to what I said above - maybe they are reading VV.

It looks as though their measures are to hit hard for a while, then relax, then hard again and relax, and to keep doing so for about a year. So we will go with all the closures of places, including work, and then as cases drop move to only isolating confirmed cases and households. When cases rise again we go to full closures and so on and on.

The news is probably what prompted Bojo's "12 weeks to turn the tide" remark yesterday. There has been plenty of negative referencing with him and King Knut, but it does look as though he had some insider information. Of course it will not be over in 12 weeks and that soundbite will come back to bite him, but I do expect an announcement of relaxation in early May should cases plateau.

[cromwell]

I would love to see some of the press who are giving Johnson stick whatever he does, given the responsibility of fighting this virus.
It's the easiest thing in the world to criticise, actually doing something is a bit more difficult.
I suppose closing the pubs had to be done, in fact when I rang up Pete on Monday I said we might not get the chance for a drink together as they might shut the pubs.
This virus is playing hell.

[Suff]

This virus is playing hell.

As I read those words, the opening works of the Carpenters "We've only just begun" went through my mind.

[Suff]

Italy 47,021 cases +5,986 in one day, 4,032 dead with another +627 dead in one day.

Social distancing, total lockdown, the problem is they were all infected before the lockdown and now this is just playing out to the eventual conclusion.

If anything is a poster child for not letting it spread, this should be it. But we are, all the countries where is it still spreading. By the time they called the lockdown somewhere close to 100,000 people had already been infected in each of the hotspot countries. It just requires time for it all to show up.