It is when we realise that all the calls to stop:
Posturing
Brinkmanship
Call my bluff
Were all down to the viewpoints of the people calling for them.
So what was actually going on and what were the two things which signal the outcome?
First it has been a high stakes game of chess from the outset. Both sides playing to win. But this is political chess. So winning is not quite what you might think it is.
On the EU side, winning was getting the UK to bow down and submit. Negotiate the terms of surrender and move on, supremely confident that nothing will change and that the power of the EU rules all.
On the UK side, winning is not submitting and not getting called out for it.
So, no, you didn't read me incorrectly. There was never any expectation that the EU would submit to the UK requirements, quit out fishing grounds and give us a free trade deal. Zero, the EU were never going to do it.
Second was to manipulate the EU into taking the blame for the UK win. Yes this is a sub goal of the primary, but still a primary goal in its own right.
After all it required the UK to make all the running, make all the suggestions, write a complete proposal that EU could refuse to accept and to keep on negotiating, over and over again. Setting deadline after deadline but not acting on them. Letting the EU kick the can down the road until we got to a summit just before the expiry of the EU drop dead date.
It also required a sharp bit of political manipulation. Right before the EU summit, our PM set Germany and France at each others throats, backed them into their opposing corners and fired them at the summit.
In all the reams and reams of bumf that will be written on this situation, there are two key things which point to the above.
One,
He added: "Trade talks are over. The EU have effectively ended them by saying they do not want to change their negotiating position."
Two you'll have to dig for a link because it has been buried in the first.
When the European Council leaders arrived at Brussels for the Summit, yesterday, the communication had been written. It was in line with what Von der Leyen had agreed with Boris, for the next two weeks they would significantly intensify talks and try to come to a text which could be completed in the coming months by the end of October.
When the leaders left, the communication was changed. The UK was to give ground on the three EU demands, fishing, level playing field and EU court controls, or it was not worth negotiating more.
SLAM. The trap closes. First and Second goals achieved, checkmate. Now the UK can send the EU away because they spent the last two days binding themselves into a course which REQUIRES the UK to submit to the EU demands before they will move forward. It is almost certain that this was due to categoric veto threats on ratifying the final agreement by at least two member states.
A long time ago I read up on Boris and his time as Mayor of London. The conclusion was that people became invested in Mr mop head idiot and approached dealing with the office of the Mayor on that basis without doing the requisite background verification to win their case. In most cases those who fell for Mr mop head idiot wound up casualties being taken off the field of battle in body bags.
It is worth repeating a #10 spokesman's statement to the press.
He added: "Trade talks are over. The EU have effectively ended them by saying they do not want to change their negotiating position."
Buckle up, it's going to be a ride.
