US elections

[Suff]

It is looking like Pennsylvania is the key state. Trump wins it, he wins, hands down. Trump loses it and he has to hoover up every outstanding state where he is leading to win, plus Wisconsin which has moved to 0.3% Biden with 5% of the vote left to count. It remains a very close competition and the counting of postal votes and the court decision that they have to wait for postal votes with a Nov 3rd franking on them, is going to make the calling of this election quite late.

Shades of 2000 and the Bush/Gore race in Florida which nearly caused a constitutional crisis.

It is looking like Trump's decision for the Supreme court candidate was genius. People tend to forget that Latino's are Roman Catholic, predominantly and pro life. He won Florida easily.

It will probably present a circus show for the next month. Then, hopefully, it will all be over and we can get on with Brexit and Covid ruling our media lives.

Because Trump lost Arizona (Republican since 1952 except for Clintons second term), he needs to hold Pennsylvania, or at the worst, Wisconsin. This is not hurt by the fact that blue collar jobs have increased nearly 20% in the rust belt over Trump's term.

If it were not for Covid, Trump would have massacred Biden on the economy alone.

[Workingman]

I take it that you are a big fan of the orange man because he sort of, nearly, perhaps, almost promised your hero, the perambulating haystack, Mr Mop Head, a luvverly jubbly free trade deal that puts America 2nd.

It cannot have anything to do with his qualifications as a decent human being, because he doesn't have any. Neither of them do.

[cromwell]

Donald Trump has not had one day's fair coverage from the media in the last four years. I think this had actually helped him.
No politician who goes against the globalist, open borders progressive agenda, or who believes in the nation state will get fair treatment.
Look at Salvini in Italy or the Hungarian government, or Poland.

Trump could be the best person in the world and it wouldn't matter. The best person in the world would still get the same slagging if they did not go along with the agenda.

[Suff]

It cannot have anything to do with his qualifications as a decent human being, because he doesn't have any. Neither of them do.

They don't have to be nice decent human beings. They just have to do what they said they were going to do. If people don't want them to do that, then they can vote for the other candidates.

The problem is that far too many of these "decent human beings", buy the vote with lies and set expectations that they will do what they say; when they have no intention of doing what they said at all.

The reason I outlined what I did was not because I like Trump as a person but because there are dynamics at play here which are often ignored in the Trump bashing press.

For Trump, in the middle of a pandemic, with almost the entire mass of the world press against him, to have achieved a result so close as this, is nothing short of monumental.

Do I think Trump will be easier to deal with than Biden post Brexit? Hell, yes, of course I do, anyone being honest with themselves would say the same. The next question is, "Would I want to damage my country by hoping for some other politician, like Obama, into power in the US who doesn't wish the UK well"? Of course if I were one of several persuasions in the UK, I'm certain, I'd put damaging my country before letting someone like Trump back into power.

In fact I am not one of those who wants to damage my own country to meet my political bias. Of course I don't have to, but that's another story, if Trump was the badass for the UK and Biden was all for the UK, I'd be supporting Biden and the US could just suck up the impact as far as I care. Because, just like the vast majority of Americans, home matters first and when home is safe I can then spare some time to worry about others.

If you think Biden voters in the US give one tiny crap for how this impacts the UK, think again.

Putting a very different perspective on it.

[Workingman]

The problem is that far too many of these "decent human beings", buy the vote with lies....

Oh my Lord! Unlike 'Honest' Donald and Boris 'De Troof' Johnson, eh? PMPL.

What was it P.T. Barnum is alleged to have said about 'one born every minute'? He got that wrong, it should have been 'millions'. See recent trans Atlantic elections for details.

[Suff]

Well, comparatively....

Question to Blair from the press. "So you promised to do xyz", Blairs answer. "We'll get to that after the next election, it's not a priority right now"..... Or the questions to Blair on a referendum on the Euro. Lots of extremely unhappy people who actually wanted the Euro, but, hey, Blair was never going to go there. So nobody got the vote he promised. Now I never expected him to have a vote but that's another question entirely.

Contrast what May claimed and what she delivered...

There is a big difference between the road to hell being paved with good intentions (or goals) and throwing the country to hell because you never had any intention of doing what you said anyway.

The only reason Trump is doing as well as he is doing comes down to his goal of stuffing China and bringing jobs back to the US. He stuffed China and brought jobs back to the US. For those who got the jobs, that is all that counts. He can be an orange baboon for all they care.

[Suff]

Pretty certain Trump has lost now.

Time for the screeches of defiance, hair rending and, because it is the US, a boatload of court cases.

[Workingman]

It's not over till the fat lady.....

According to sky Trump already has four court cases on the go.

[Suff]

Trump needed to overturn Nevada already and Biden had a lead which was being extended with postal votes. The last time Nevada was won by a republican was George W Bush.

Whilst this was going on, Georgia flipped to Biden in late stage counting. Trump needed every undeclared state including Nevada to win after losing Wisconsin and Michigan when the postal votes started to pour in.

My take, Fat lady is warming up. Nevada makes an update again at 10:30PT today and is still only 84% counted. Georgia is 99% counted. It's looking like 286 for Biden. Worst case for Biden looks like a 270 win.

[Kaz]

It does look like Biden has it. He's far from ideal - his age, and not the biggest fan of the UK - but anything is better than the orange lunatic!