ROTFLMAO

[Suff]

This is what happens when the UK is not in the EU with a ready hand in their pocket and a conciliatory attitude.

EU budget blocked by Hungary and Poland over rule of law issue.

The irony is too thick to lay with road making equipment.

So the EU who had thought they had a double whammy of agreeing a budget and rescue package, whilst sticking it to Poland and Hungary, suddenly have nothing but a pending crisis in January.

I wonder if they forgot that they still have to get a unanimous vote on budgets, and taxation because the UK refused to accept anything else.

The even funnier thing is that the lions share of the rescue package goes to Germany France, Italy and Spain.

At the same time the EU now has a weaker hand to play because a no deal Brexit damages the economies of Germany, France.Italy and Spain, among others.

Cue Suff, rolling on the floor, tears of laughter and drumming his feet on the floor.

Talk about the hard faced bluffing negotiators just having their busted flush turned over......

Sorry for the Brexit connotation, but, honestly, it is too ironic for words.

The fact that it is a German presidency of the EU is just layering irony over irony.

I promise not to turn it into a brexit thread and to focus on the EU budget but it is impossible not to draw the parallels. At least once.

[cromwell]

If the rules don't produce the result that the EU wants, the rules will be changed or the result ignored.
As in the original EU constitution referenda.

[Workingman]

What!?

You are both conflating two widely unconnected things. The link is wrong.

Hungary and Poland have been criticised for violating democratic standards, which if they operated in your own ballywicks would lead to revolt. The EU has the high ground. It is also investigating those countries for undermining the independence of courts, media and non-governmental organisations. That's a bad thing: right?

The budget of €1.1tn for 2021-2027 is agreed, but needs to be verified by both Poland and Hungary and deals will be done: we all know that.

This has nothing whatsoever to do with the UK. We are already out of the EU and both sides can go their own ways. If we don't like how the EU trades with the ROW, hard lines, same for them re the UK. Who wins? They do. They really do hold the Court cards. Honest. We have the deuces and tres and have no idea how to play them to effect.

[Suff]

This has everything to do with the UK.

The EU budget had a €13bn a year hole in it. Last year they got into a huge bunfight over it and refused sign it off. This wasn't a problem then but is a really big problem now because, from Jan 1st, UK contributions stop.

Because of the impact of Covid, they got into a HUGE renegotiation of the budget and wrapped the budget into the financial fix for Covid economic impact. They basically used the Covid issue to close the budget issue.

Of course the EU is unhappy with Poland and Hungary and in its usual Machiavellian form, the EU added a rider to the budget to bring Poland and Hungary under EU control. Pass laws they don't like, then the money dries up. If you look at the EU budget, Poland is the largest beneficiary and the entire Polish economic boom is tied to that funding.

Also in typical form, the EU played on the countries who have the largest impact from the UK black hole. They played them like a fiddle and made them fear that without legal constraints in Poland and Hungary, they would simply waste all the money they are being given and come back and ask for more. So they got the Frugal 4 to demand that this money was tied to the "rule of law". Rule of EU law, of course, not rule of State law.

This is also tied to the UK exiting. They would _never_ have tried that crap on with the UK and the UK would never have accepted it. What could they say to the UK? Do as we say or we won't let you GIVE us any more money?

So the EU forced this budget agreement through by majority voting at the ambassador level. Because agreements of this kind can be QMV. Poland and Hungary didn't object because they knew that it had to go for ratification where all countries must ratify the budget conditions. This is not QMV, this is 100% approval with Veto because the UK vetoed every single attempt of the EU to make budgets and taxation QMV. Our legacy to the EU which Poland and Hungary are using now.

So the EU is facing 4 existential crises

1. Member states are using their legal powers to override the EU for in country only issues.
2. The EU budget is facing a critical car crash where 2021 has to continue on the previous, pre 2021 levels; because a new budget has not been approved, but the UK €13bn (every single year for 7 years), is missing.
3. The economies of the EU are in a Covid crisis because they can't agree a budget which has a rescue fund that will rebalance the economies. Those economies are running on EU rules and only the EU can decide how to subsidise them in order to avoid the coming car crash.
4. They are facing a UK no deal where the German, French, Italian and Spanish economies are going to be very hard hit as their goods become prohibitively expensive in the UK and the UK starts to import from countries outside the EU.

The façade that the EU is some solid, strong, united block is just that. It is like a western town with all the false fronted buildings. It looks very large and impressive but it is all empty space beyond.

So, no, I'm not conflating anything. If you follow EU politics closely enough, you understand that it is all interconnected and all one moving game of chess. If you actually delve down into the budget arrangements and look at the sums of "recovery funds" and where they are going, you get a totally different picture of the current state of play in the EU.

The point is, right now, the actions of Poland and Hungary, essentially to protect themselves and totally predictably, have just scuppered any chances of the EU telling the UK that Hard Brexit is going to hurt the UK more than the EU.

Because the EU is right on the cusp of a crisis which is far greater than Brexit and that Hard Brexit will only be the Coup de Grace for.

Hence I talk about busted flushes. The EU has been running a massive bluff and they just got called. Why they would believe their own bluff is a mystery to me. We were part of the EU, right on the inside, right up to the beginning of Feb this year. So it is hardly like we don't actually know what all these figures mean.

Maybe it's all for the press and public? I don't know. But I reserve the right to be highly amused when their games and shenanigans come tumbling down because they chose to forget that budget approvals carry a veto.

The next conversation with my Le Pen supporting log vendor is going to be extremely interesting. The last one, on Saturday, was interesting enough.

[cromwell]

Hungary and Poland have been criticised for violating democratic standards, which if they operated in your own ballywicks would lead to revolt. The EU has the high ground. It is also investigating those countries for undermining the independence of courts, media and non-governmental organisations. That's a bad thing: right?

This subject does interest me - the indepencence or otherwise of courts, media and quangos.

For a long time I have believed that there is very little true independence in British public life.
In the first year of Tony Blair's government 75% of appointments to head up Quangos were Labour supporters.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... today.html

Then you could look at the allegedly independent CPS. It's former head Keir Starmer is now the leader of the Labour party.
Or the posts of Police and Crime Commisioners. These people have to swear an oath of impartiality when they get the job. Our local PCC, who was previouly a Labour councillor promptly took his oath and then in an appointment that was only open to members of the labour party, he appointed another Labour member as his Deputy Crime Commissioner. Then he appointed another ex-Labour councillor to work for him.

I could go on (OK, sometimes I DO go on!). But if you were to examine the whereabouts of ex-MP's like Jacqui Smith (Head of a Health Trust) or Mary Creagh (Head of a pedestrians charity), or Tom Watson (Chair of UK music) or Stephen Ladyman (Head of Somerset Partnership NHS Foundation Trust), or Estelle Morris (is or was Head of the National Children's Bureau) you would find a lot of politicians in "independent" jobs.

The point being that politicians love power and influence and money. And if there's any going, they want it.So positions which you would reasonably expect to be independent and politically neutral are anything but.
So the quangos, justice system and academia in the UK are thoroughly politicised. Ed Balls and Mary Creagh both have part time lecturing jobs, amongst many others.

In the State the Democrats are screaming that Trump has put his supporters into their Supreme Court - and he did. He replaced Democratic appointees with Republican appointees! Always accuse your opponents of what you do yourself.

So why should Hungary and Poland be any different?
Are their courts etc packed with progressive liberals who wish to put the brakes on elected conservatively inclined governments? As Tony Blair doubtless intended when he created our own Supreme Court?
I'd hazard a guess that they are.

Politics has become increasingly aggressive and confrontational, to the point where imo true independence barely exists in our public life.

[Suff]

Poland is a deeply Catholic state which doesn't have a strong separation between Church and State. So Poland has huge issues with EU directives and regulations on "diversity", Sexual orientation and destruction of what they see as basic Catholic family values.

In order to attack this invasion of EU "values", they have gone after the courts who are supporting them.

It is not good that they have to go so far and it is a basic issue with the lack of separation between religion and state. But, then again, if it works for them they should be allowed to do it. But, you see, you can't allow that in the EU because the EU is essentially run by a Liberal elite presenting itself as centre right.

The former East Bloc countries have not descended so far down the Liberal elite path and are resisting it deeply.

This sets up the basic conflict. It doesn't help that these countries which feel so "invaded" by Western EU ideas are also some of the largest net recipients of EU money.

I don't entirely agree with how they want to run their countries. But they are democratically elected and there is little question of illegitimate elections. So I do not deny them their right to rule their own country the way they want to. The EU, on the other hand, wants member states to have less power over their own laws than states in the US do.

So when states like Poland and Hungary kick back, it causes ripples in the EU. When they use their veto on Budget, it causes tidal waves.

But, again, it is worth understanding why they are vetoing. Because if you understand that, you then understand how likely it is that they are going to bow down and accept what they are using their veto for.

Once you understand that, you then need to understand what the impact of their actions are and how fragile the whole house of cards is. From that you can estimate the true impact of trying to override Polish and Hungarian states wish to set their own laws for their own people.

[Workingman]

Let me take you back to what I said about Stratton and Symonds a few days ago - circles within circles.

Look back through the generations of, especially, the political and mercantile elites and the names of the same extended families keep cropping up to this day. There are cousins of, uncles and aunties of, nieces, nephews, grand sons and grand daughters of. Yes, there are a few shooting stars who get rewarded in their time (the types Cromwell mentions and Life Peers) only to fade away after one generation, but the clever ones get their offspring to marry into "The Families" and so the system continues.

It's a form of inbreeding, but on a national scale, and we all know the problems inbreeding can cause.

BTW Individual nations no longer have a veto in the EU due to qualified majority voting (QMV). A qualified majority is reached if 55% of member states are in favour of a proposal and is supported by member states representing at least 65% of the total EU population. There is such a thing as a so-called "blocking minority" but it must include at least four Council members representing more than 35% of the EU population.

Poland and Hungary cannot individually, or even united, veto anything - see Lisbon for details.

The EU is not going to collapse like a pack of cards any time soon no matter how hard those agin it dream it to be so. Creative technical solutions to the current problems will be found so that the already agreed budget can be passed.

[Suff]

Poland and Hungary cannot individually, or even united, veto anything - see Lisbon for details.

Except for Budget and Taxation! See exclusions to QMV.

[Workingman]

The EU budget - QMV - Art 269 TFEU.

But who gives a stuff? Why should we in the sovereign, under our own control and free UK care either way? I do not understand all this infatuation with the EU and how it works. We have already left and are completely out in 44 days once the transition ends. Brexiters up and down the land keep telling me this. They also aver that we get a no-deal and move to WTO: "bring it on!", they say. I let the EU's internal wrangles go, ages back, as I do not get a say anymore - I simply don't click on the articles and move on to the next one. Stories about the EU and its machinations are down there with 'corns can be crippling' or 'cat brings mouse home'. TTMO.

We don't navel gaze about NAFTA, CARICOM, MERCOSUR, WAEMU or the recent RCEP and others in the same way.

What I do find interesting is that in a time when more and more countries are joining trade blocs, especially neighbourly ones, and then working together for their greater good the UK is heading for the hills alone.

[Suff]

Heading to the hills alone with 52 countries (and growing). Working on CPTPP, something the EU is never going to get.

Why should we care about the political situation in the EU? Because, throughout our "local" treaty negotiations with them, they have been doing a monumental snow job on us. If you understand the EU and how it works, the Emperor no longer has any clothes and it is time to push that situation to the hilt.

Or not. Ignorance is bliss. Apparently.