Brussels breakdown

[TheOstrich]

So yet another flight to Brussels, another evening meal, and no further forward regarding a mutual trade deal. They are going to give it until Sunday, but to be honest, why bother? They should really put an and to this farce now.

It's nothing to do with fishing, that was always a red herring. The problem is purely ideological. We want to be a sovereign national and be able to conduct or own affairs, for better or worse. The EU patently don't want that.

Fine. Call it a day. WTO terms from 1/1/21, and then take stock and see if a trade deal of mutual benefit to both sides can be thrashed out with the EU over the next few years. The Irish border problem has been sorted, so that is no longer an issue. We should now get concentrating with arranging favourable trade terms with other countries.

[Suff]

It is quite simple and the timing tells it all.

There is a council summit tomorrow and Friday. The UK has told the commission that the UK has gone as far as it will go and the remaining moves must be made by the Commission negotiators. However the negotiators do not have the mandate to go any further than they have.

Tonight the Commission staff will be preparing a draft modification to the negotiating mandate. The 27 states will have to unilaterally agree it during the summit.

That leaves one more day to complete the negotiations on the final 3 points. Ending Sunday with a decision.

Should the Council not modify the negotiating mandate, then the negotiations are dead and we walk away on WTO rules.

The ball is firmly in the EU court right now and the press should be telling it as it is.

Of course they are not. They are making out there is more horse trading to be done. There is not and there is no ambiguity about it. The only thing left is for the EU to climb down from their untenable position.

My take is that France and at least 3 other states will not ratify a mandate change and the talks will be dead by Friday night.

I also noted the recent clanging alarm bells from Ireland. Where they have admitted that a very large chunk of their meat exports to the UK will be barred by EU rules on the transfer of raw processed meat and the, up to, 74% import taxes they may face on beef products exported to the UK.

Coveney even admitted that the UK might get meat products from the Americas or Africa if these tariffs are put in place. Causing an impact on Irish GDP, half the size of the remaining bailout.

I would love, dearly, to have a transcript of the upcoming Council meeting.

[Workingman]

We are screwed, aren't we? And the Brexthick ideology did for us, didn't it?

We were always as 'sovereign' as some of the 27 are now proving by their actions, but you Brexthcks twisted that.

We are now out and you Brexiters need to take ownership, 100% ownership. of the situation we are now in, but you will not. You and the Tory ERG brought us to where we are today and yet it is apparently a Remoaner deed, You own this mess, it is yours and yours alone - own it, but you wont..

The reason you will not though is because you are cowards of the worst sort - ones who will never admit that they were wrong.

[medsec222]

Well we used to be able to say that nothing is over until the fat lady sings - but I am not sure we are allowed to say that any more

[cromwell]

So yet another flight to Brussels, another evening meal, and no further forward regarding a mutual trade deal. They are going to give it until Sunday, but to be honest, why bother? They should really put an and to this farce now.

AMEN.
Yet another "final" deadline; I'm absolutely sick of it.

It's nothing to do with fishing, that was always a red herring.

I see what you did there!

If we can't get a deal we have to move on. Realistically, as I stated ages ago, the EU weren't ever going to give us a good deal. Why would they?
So WTO was always the favourite to happen, with all the pain that could bring; and we could have had WTO four years since.

[cromwell]

I'll happily admit that I could be wrong WM. When people are given a choice it's always possible that they can make the wrong choice and if I have, I have.

[medsec222]

"The European Commission is working on a new regulation to create an “appropriate legal framework” to enable EU boats to access the UK’s fishing grounds. With the trade negotiations on the brink of collapse, eurocrats will propose arrangements for “continued reciprocal access by EU and UK vessels to each others’ waters after December 31, 2020”. The EU Commission adds: “In order to guarantee the sustainability of fisheries and in light of the importance of fisheries for the economic livelihood of many communities, it is necessary to facilitate the procedures of authorisation of fishing vessels.”


Is this an example of what the EU call cherry picking? Or is it only the UK who cherry pick?

[Suff]

We are screwed, aren't we? And the Brexthick ideology did for us, didn't it?

In those terms we were screwed the moment more than a million people, over the half way mark, voted to leave and it was clear that no government could survive refusing to break with the EU.

However let's put this in perspective. In terms of, say, a belligerent nation with a 10 million man army, bombing our country from the air and trying to starve it out through blockade, how does Brexit sit on the "we are screwed" scale out of 10?

I rate it about a 2.

Economics we can fix. Trade we can fix. Budgets we can fix and, should we care to do it, we can simply ignore all our carefully set up rules until we have stabilised the country.

We don't need to ask anyone to help us and we don't need to beg.

All of this blather about disaster and chaos is nothing more than a smokescreen to hide the simple fact that the UK was never a fit for the EU and the countries of the EU have never respected the UK since the day we joined.

This so called "negotiation", A.K.A surrender, shows that in more detail than has ever been seen before.

Of course it is not over till the weight challenged lady sings, but the EU is the only one not learning here; so I can't see anything other than that the talks end with no agreement.

Of course, were I Irish, I would be extremely wary about having been hung out to dry by the French, Dutch, Belgians, Danish and a few others.

Nice to have all your "friends" at your back. Pity about the knife in their hands!

[Suff]

And still they don't get it.

Several EU members, notably France, have been pushing for von der Leyen's Commission and her negotiator Michel Barnier to take a tougher line, and to publish the contingency plan to show they are ready for "no deal".

The EU Commission described the plan as "a set of targeted contingency measures ensuring basic reciprocal air and road connectivity between the EU and the UK, as well as allowing for the possibility of reciprocal fishing access by EU and UK vessels to each other's waters."

If they try and conflate road and air connectivity with Fishing they'll wind up with nothing. Just what does it take for them to come to their senses?

From the same article, it alludes to what I was saying about the Council meeting being needed to break the impass.

Britain on Thursday said talks to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union will not go beyond this weekend unless there is "substantial movement" from Brussels in key areas.

Substantial Movement is code for "Revisit the negotiating mandate or we're out".

France won't go for it and only one country needs to veto.

We are down to hours, not days, now and this will continue to play out. I'm just letting it all flow over until Monday. There is nothing here that has changed. The UK is not giving in, the EU thinks it is some world powerhouse that nobody can deny and the press are talking the usual BS. There is almost no sense anywhere in the press. Well in the UK at least and virtually none in the EU. The vast majority of the EU press have been eating the EU dog food. Almost none of them actually understand the UK, leaving Ireland and Malta as leading lights in the "keep going that way and the UK will blow you off" reports.

At least it will all be over in 3 weeks and we can all start to understand just what the impact really is. There is a precedent here but nobody wants to talk about it. That precedent is when Maggie refused to fund the EEC budget. Up until the last second the the EEC was saying "you can't do that it will break international law". The EU moved and organised the rebate within 2 weeks, after years of stonewalling. The problem for the EU is that they will only have days left once they realise just how badly they have misjudged the UK and screwed up.

There was no EU, nor EU parliament, when Maggie forced the EEC to see sense. Today the EU simply cannot move as fast as the old EEC did. Creating a major problem for the EU.

About a month ago I responded to an article on SeekingAlpha where the author thought it was all about money and business and how the UK had no recourse except to bow down to the EU. It was just a matter of when. I replied that it was almost entirely politics and perception and that the UK would never give what the EU wanted. I put the chances of a deal at less than 5%.

We shall see if the EU can see reason or if it is totally blinded by its own false image? Certainly they need to wake up and smell the java. Macron has his head in a very dark smelly place right now, I wonder how large the head extractor will need to be and just how much it will cost??

No matter what happens it will, at least, be good news for UK ports and bad news for Rotterdam.

[debih]

I'm really not very up on politics and I admit that I don't really understand all the Brexit stuff.

But - what I really don't understand is why, if we decided to leave do we think we have a choice in negotiating anything. Surely if we decide to leave something without prior discussion with who we are leaving we get what we are given? Is that not like leaving the boy scouts, not paying your subs anymore but still expecting to get some badges and be invited to the xmas party?