Spacex continues on the march to cheap spacelaunch

[Suff]

Spacex finally nails a 3 engine starship landing after a 10km launch.

Another step on the way to being a multiplanetary species. An important step in our evolution if we want to continue as a species and avoid a Dinosaur extinction event.

https://youtu.be/ODY6JWzS8WU

Enjoy

Then it blew up due to a methane leak.

SN11 waiting to do better.

[cromwell]

Amazing. This must be costing an incredible amount of money, too.

[Workingman]

Another step on the way to being a multiplanetary species.

???

And that planet would be?

Oh, hang on, I know this one: Mars!

The currently uninhabitable Mars. The one that will need aeons of terraforming for a handful of us to be able to survive not live there: maybe!

Humanity ain't going anywhere, and certainly not the stars. With the way we are heading we are going to shit in our own strawberry patch and run out of "stuff" long before we can leave. The growing global population, 9.7 billion by 2050, wars, and the trashed environment will see to that.

[Suff]

That's the idea, even if we totally screw up Eden, there is still the harsh suburbs of the solar system to hide out in.

Unless you are telling me that an E.L.E level asteroid is going to hit both Mars and Earth at the same time. A self sustaining Mars colony would be difficult, due to the needs of equipment they simply could not make on Mars, it takes a civilisation the size of Earth to produce and maintain the technological level we have. That being said, it doesn't need to be a "forever" bolthole, just one where our knowledge and species can hide out until it is time to re-seed the home planet.


So, yes, I'm in favour. Because once we are capable, we should do it. Even if mother Earth doesn't bite the big one, it is still not a bad idea. Situations like Mars will drive invention and technology through simple need, a need which Earth has not had for a long time now.

[Workingman]

I am not against things "Space" I am actually addicted to them and have been for decades, but it's all become very Deep Space 9, Star Trek and Battlestar Galactica, and it is not going to happen, not with the way we are heading - no asteroid needed.

Any outpost will eventually have to be self-sufficient and with a population large enough to regenerate generation upon generation, and that's just for continued survival. Going out into the big beyond is a pipe dream. Mars, nor any other candidates for an outpost, have the variety or quantities of complex minerals and compounds required to build and go- water being a prime example out of thousands / millions. Earth does.

Suff, IMHO we would be far better off taking steps to make planet Earth the Eden you suggest it could be / was. Unfortunately that is not going to happen as the work required flies in the face of what makes us, as humans, tick.

We would need to reduce the population, at the same rate it has risen, back to 1945 or WWII levels, about 2.2bn. We need to eradicate consumerism and the current economic model. And we urgently need to take steps to start to repair the various biomes of the land, sea and air. None of what is needed is going to come about any time soon as the will is not there.

A "great reset" is coming, but it is not the one conspiracy theorists bang on about, it is Mother Nature's and it will not be pretty. Earth will survive. What happens to its most intelligent yet most stupid animal is up for grabs, but it is mostly in our hands.

[Workingman]

I watched a Star Trek film the other night and Enterprise was docking at a space station. It was shaped like one of those multi-axis gyroscope toys (probably for gravity) and there were millions of people on board. I got to wondering what they were all doing?

Then I look at planet Earth and start to wonder what the 7.7 billion of us are doing.

It begins to boggle the mind once the surface is scratched. How much of what we do is advancing humanity to take us beyond, to boldly go...? How much of it is work for work's sake? How much of it is making things for the workers doing the work for work's sake? How much of it is to make money and then make more money out of money?

What is it that we are all doing?

[Suff]

A "great reset" is coming, but it is not the one conspiracy theorists bang on about, it is Mother Nature's and it will not be pretty. Earth will survive. What happens to its most intelligent yet most stupid animal is up for grabs, but it is mostly in our hands.

Mother nature is the great leveller. You are right, we can't carry on the way we are going and nothing will happen to us. You, I know, will remember all the 70's SciFi films where, in year 2000, we were all living in habitats to keep the poisoned atmosphere out.

Well it is 2/3 of the way out of 2000 on the other side, on that 30 year scale and whilst there are indications, catastrophe has not happened. But it is on the way and it is going to kill billions. Back in 2,000 those who were called alarmists were talking about the 2bn who would die. Anyone who has a good broad view of the situation is struggling to come up with a number larger than 2bn who will live.

[Suff]

What is it that we are all doing?

Production for the sake of production. First it was goods, now it is people. Modern medicine reduced infant mortality by 80%. Yet communities at the subsistence level are hard wired to produce that 80% whether they live or not.

I will probably not see it to the end, but my grandchildren will. I wish them something else but most people think it is the problem of someone else to fix it. So it won't be fixed.

[Suff]

SpaceX has a new RUD. RUD is their term for Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly.

Starship SN11, hot on the heels of the successful landing of SN10, followed by blowing up, took off perfectly, flipped over perfectly, started to re-ignite it's engines when.....

SpaceX data feed was lost followed by rather a lot of loud banging noises. Nothing to see because SN11 took off in thick mist.

SpaceX video is here.

However Nasaspaceflight (nothing to do with NASA), also video'd the launch and they had a very close automated camera. The youtube cast is here. Fast forward to 2h 44 minutes and you will see "what happened next".

Elon had two tweets.

"A high production rate solves many ills"

Followed by

At least the crater is in the right place!

Starship SN15 is next up, still fitting out in the high bay. I'm sure there are a lot of bets being taken now as to whether it is Land or Bang.

One thing is certain. 1 crash of this type in the prototypes in the 30's will cost the same as 100 prototypes at this stage.

[Suff]

Some later tweets from Musk on Starship.

Looks like engine 2 had issues on ascent & didn’t reach operating chamber pressure during landing burn, but, in theory, it wasn’t needed.

Something significant happened shortly after landing burn start. Should know what it was once we can examine the bits later today.

That was visible, something was burning outside the engine all the way up.

SN15 rolls to launch pad in a few days. It has hundreds of design improvements across structures, avionics/software & engine.

Hopefully, one of those improvements covers this problem. If not, then retrofit will add a few more days.

So another test before the end of April is likely.

Next major technology rev is at SN20. Those ships will be orbit-capable with heat shield & stage separation system. Ascent success probability is high.

However, SN20+ vehicles will probably need many flight attempts to survive Mach 25 entry heating & land intact.

They expect a Lot of burned up and broken starships from re-entry attempts.

BN1 is a manufacturing pathfinder, so will be scrapped. We learned a lot, but have already changed design to BN2.

Goal is to get BN2 with engines on orbital pad before end of April. It might even be orbit-capable if we are lucky.

This shows the speed of iteration on the development. The B prefix means booster which the Starship will sit on top of. BN1 was completely built only to see how they could build it. BN2 will fly.

Contrast the Space Launch System being built by the United Launch Alliance ULA for NASA. 10 years and they only got to full booster testing on the test frame this month. Even though it is made up of Shuttle components including engines and solid rocket boosters. Quite literally they have enough engines for 8 launches because they are all from the shuttle missions.

Even with that advantage, Starship has a really good chance of catching up with the SLS launched Artemis Moon missions by 2024. If, that is, Artemis goes on time. We will know in November if the lunar orbit launch happens or if it is delayed.