Here we go again

[Workingman]

Here's an outline of a problem.

I have been floating round the news outlets and they all have versions of the question "What happens after July 19th?" What follows are "their" versions of events; and they are all different. Every single one is conjecture based on the writer's / outlet's preferences. There is no one definitive answer because the government has not given one so the answers to the question are all guesswork and all based on different data sets.

It is these kinds of things that are driving people's frustrations.

[cromwell]

I do think the media has a lot to answer for, yes.
Clickbait articles on line and screaming headlines may help to sell papers and drive advertising revenue but too often in the last year responsible reporting has been completely abandoned.

I support a free press but if the press ever get censored then they will carry all the blame for it.

[Workingman]

I do not know what to make of this evening's panto.

The government is going to review everything, even tonight's proposed relaxations, on the 12th so why not wait till then and give us the full SP? The 19th is not set in stone only that it should proceed "subject to the 12th July review."

Everything is still subject to change, as was always the case, and this just adds more uncertainty and grief for those desperate to open up.

[TheOstrich]

Thing is, he has set the train in motion, and if he pulls back now, politically (and in the country) he's going to be toast.

[cromwell]

A mish mash as expected.
The former Supreme Court judge, Lord Sumption said of Boris that "he bears the imprint of the last person to sit on him", so he's always likely to veer off at the last minute.
In any event I expect the one constant will be the vaccine passport. Even when the crisis has passed I believe they won't drop it.

[Workingman]

Appparently the Covid passport has been dropped, certainly for use in country, but could still be active for overseas travel.... but isn't that really down to countries who might be considering UK visitors? If they say "No!" then a Covpassport is useless.

I see that now that masks are a 'personal choice' there is an avalanche of links to studies showing that they do work - both ways - protecting you from me and me from you. Logically that was always the case but this new information looks like a push to persuade those who now say that they will ditch them completely to think again - a majority by the sound of things.

We also have the Javidiot now claiming that come July 19th cases per day could be as high as 100,000 and "Foghorn" Ferguson has trumped that with 150,000 to 200,000 per day. At today's levels those would translate to between 32 and 65 deaths per day, same as mid October last year or mid March of this.

Time to dive back under the duvet - or not. We'll see.

[Suff]

I see that now that masks are a 'personal choice' there is an avalanche of links to studies showing that they do work - both ways - protecting you from me and me from you. Logically that was always the case but this new information looks like a push to persuade those who now say that they will ditch them completely to think again - a majority by the sound of things.

The best view of the studies is to look at scholarly articles on Google. The press is no help there nor anything published outside those articles.

Key words are confidence and certainty. Anything higher than Very Low is surrounded by so many caveats that the entire study is virtually worthless. I even found one study which did extensive work on mixed mask environment. The bizarre thing was that below 50% mask usage, the outcome was worse than no mask at all.

The other word you need to look for is Model. Yep they are ALL models. Some do try and do due diligence to check on the model but every single one of them does its due diligence check in a medical setting. Nothing, anywhere, for the general public.

All of these studies were spawned in 2020 to stampede people and governments into universal mask wearing. Points to note are wording like "The study shows, conclusively, that universal mask use and social distancing will stop any further waves".

Honestly, anyone who actually read the published study articles would come away with the conclusion that nobody could prove anything and that Models showed that things would happen which did not happen in real life. Which is what a "very low confidence" and "very low certainty" would imply.

[Workingman]

I have read plenty of peer reviewed stuff in the BMJ, Lancet and from the CDC, the London School of Tropical Medicine, Oxford University and the likes, and I can comprehend what I read, to know that wearing masks and social distancing in crowded and enclosed space protects both me and you.

I will continue to do so for as long as it takes for me (and you) to be safe.

If anyone wants to behave differently, bang on, but do not dare to get in my face or space. I will react and you will not like my reaction. I promise.

[Suff]

I have read plenty of peer reviewed stuff in the BMJ, Lancet and from the CDC, the London School of Tropical Medicine, Oxford University and the likes, and I can comprehend what I read, to know that wearing masks and social distancing in crowded and enclosed space protects both me and you.

In populations which have not been vaccinated!

[Workingman]

And also in those who have - read the peer reviewed research. Globally the unvaccinated are in the majority, and they visit us. Kerching!

Go mask free if you want, but don't get in my face or space. You will not be welcomed or hugged, but your lights could be turned off.